Well, that was something.
After spending $160 million in guaranteed money adding 23 players — that includes retaining five of their own free agents — the Patriots have had a massive amount of personnel turnover following their 7-9 season in 2020.
From trading for Trent Brown before free agency, to bringing back core veterans David Andrews, James White and Lawrence Guy this week, Bill Belichick has successfully jolted a roster that had gotten old, slow, stale and decidedly untalented. And who knows, maybe a new/old QB will be coming back as the Prince They Were Promised?
Whether it all works and comes together in Weeks 1, 8 or 18 and is enough to capture a playoff spot and beyond, we'll have to wait to see what happens. No one knows, not even Belichick (true story). Are they way more talented and should they compete for an AFC East title? On paper, yes. But football is played by living and breathing humans and often trust is one of the most important aspects of football.
Can the ultimate team sport be conquered in one year by a team of mercenaries (they are for the first season)? The history isn't good, but we've never seen a free-agent class like this. We're about to find out.
What is clear, at least at this point, is that there are some big winners and losers around One Patriot Place as a result of this influx of personnel and outlay of capital. Before we give you the latest on the Jimmy Garoppolo Homecoming Campaign, let's hand out some awards:
WINNERS
Interior beef: The days of watching the Patriots' defensive line get pushed around are over. With Guy, Davon Godchaux, Henry Anderson, Byron Cowart, Montravius Adams and Deatrich Wise (we still aren't sure where or if he fits in this scheme) up front (how about adding Jarran Reed too?), the Patriots should control the interior offensive line of every opponent meaning that another winner should be ...
Linebackers and box safeties: In a perfect illustration of the struggles of this defense last year, poor Adrian Phillips was tasked with playing in the box since the Patriots didn't really have any linebackers that could play, and Phillips got run over because the line was so bad beyond Guy. As we said, Phillips should have applied for combat pay for what they asked him to do. Now, with all that beef up front? The linebackers, and Phillips and Kyle Dugger should feel like they're roaming an empty prairie in the middle of Montana with all the room they will have. Wait until Dugger is freed up to blitz QBs and hunt down ball carriers. That is going to be fun to watch.
Damien Harris and Sony Michel, RBs: The Patriots now have a dynamite offensive line with Michael Onwenu and Trent Brown blocking out the sun, two TEs to help block and distract would-be tacklers, and (as of now) two different types of fullbacks (athletes Dalton Keene/Dan Vitale or roadgrader Jakob Johnson), plus Newton (for now) taking away some attention. I don't know if the setup gets any better for running backs.
Josh McDaniels, OC: NFL owners love offense, so it wasn't a surprise to the veteran playcaller's offseason interview dance card get pretty sparse as the Patriots finished 7th in points and 15th in yards in 2019 — the worst franchise numbers since 2008 — and bottomed out last year at 27th and 27th. We all know what the problem was — even TB12 chose to flee rather than play with the declining group around him (who ever thought the Patriots' offensive talent would decline before a 40-something Brady?). As long as Belichick gives McDaniels a QB who can win before the snap, the Patriots should be back in the top 5 on offense and McDaniels will look a supermodel to the owners.
Exotic third-down packages on defense: The Patriots' defense on first and second down was so awful last season that the team's third-down playbook had an inch of dust and several cobwebs in it when it was rediscovered after the season. With this front, it's time to blow the dust off it Indiana Jones-style and get to work.
N'Keal Harry: Yes, you're going to see Harry on both lists. Look, Harry didn't have a great run here. Tom Brady wasn't crazy about him from jump, Harry got hurt as a rookie which put him behind, and he never seemed like a great fit in this offense. He's stuck with the first-round label here, which is never fair (it's not Harry's fault he was drafted in the first round). The Patriots signing two receivers and two tight ends to big money means there's not going to be a ton of three-receiver sets, so the Patriots might as well cut their losses and give Harry a fresh start while he's still very young and might have a chance. Harry might actually be the first Patriots draft receiver to show talent elsewhere.
Trash-talking Patriots fans: After two decades of tormenting every other fanbase and non-homer media member, and being able to walk around with their chests out and middle fingers in the air, 7-9 was not fun for the under-35 crowd who really didn't know what it felt like to be like every other team Before Brady. Now they're back to being irrationally angry at anyone who doesn't think this was Belchick's masterplan, and taking names and screenshots for all those who even came close to doubting The Hoodie. These are salad days for that set, and they can not WAIT to unleash their BLEEEEH tweets as soon as the Patriots turn 4-4 into 12-5 and a primed run at the Super Bowl. A tradition unlike any other.
LOSERS
N'Keal Harry, WR: Unless there's a rash of injuries, Harry is going to be behind Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne and probably Jakobi Meyers on the receivers depth chart. That's a tough blow to the ego.
Opposing running backs: Want to run inside? Guy, Godchaux, Anderson are waiting for you with Dont'a Hightower, Josh Uche and Dugger ready to tee you up in the skinny creases. Want to get to the edge? There's Matthew Judon and Kyle Van Noy jacking up your tackles and tight ends on the edge; you're not getting there. Good luck.
Devin Asiasi, TE: It was not a good rookie campaign for the third-round pick, who the team traded up for. He disappeared and lacked some compete for part of the year. Maybe he's growing and maturing, but if the Patriots thought it was likely he was going to take a major step this season, there's no way they sign two top tight ends. It's more likely his days are in Foxboro are numbered.
Anfernee Jennings, LB: Uche is an athlete with some speed, so it's easy to see that he still has some usefulness in this scheme. Jennings? He's like a relic from another football year as a two-down linebacker. No room on the edge. Not enough speed inside. Where's he going to get any playing time?
Joejuan Williams, CB: The '19 second-round pick was supposed to be a matchup piece ... but someone forgot to actually ask the question, "Yeah, but is he a good football player with positional value?" The answer, after the team shelled out for Jalen Mills, would be negative.
Chase Winovich, edge: The '19 third-round pick — man, was that draft awful or what for starting-caliber players (Harris is the only saving grace to this point) — should have nailed down a three-down spot heading into his third year with all he has shown on third down. Instead, the team brought in two veterans in Van Noy and Judon to keep Wino in a situational role, at best. Unless he's moved to inside linebacker — we've advocated for it before, been told he can't be trusted, but at this point ... why the heck not? — the camera-friendly Winovich seems destined to be playing elsewhere sometime soon. Come on, try him inside.
Top defensive assistants Steve Belichick and Jerod Mayo: This will now be the third year the two have basically combined to replace Brian Flores. In 2019, their defense completely collapsed as they went from one of the best units in Patriots annals, to one that got ripped to shreds by Ryan Fitzpatrick and the 5-11 Dolphins at Gillette to blow a first-round bye (would have been handy) and then got pushed around by the Titans. Last year, the defense allowed the most points since 1995, but we all knew the front seven was deficient thanks to youth, mistakes and opt-outs. Belichick and Mayo have basically skated for two years, not that it was wrong. Now, there are no excuses. The front seven is stacked. The secondary, as of now, is still intact. It's Year 3. The pressure is on this duo to make it all work and give the offense time to get on the same page.
Yodny Cajuste, OT: The 2019 third-round pick has been seen in a few practices, but that's about it. If the Patriots thought he had a chance this year to really make an impact, I doubt they make the move for Brown. He's going to be the Moonlight Graham of drafted offensive linemen — if he ever appears.
NICKEL PACKAGE, JIMMY GAROPPOLO EDITION
1. Now that everyone's had a few days to process the 49ers' daring trade up to the third spot in the draft, we can tell you the Patriots still have interest but aren't going to overpay (in trade or compensation) for a QB who has played 16 games just once in seven seasons, and one they still have some toughness questions about (Brady, he is not ... no one is, tough bar). Part of the calculation: Garoppolo is now sure to be available in 2022 — possibly for free and under a new, cheaper contract. Do the Patriots really think they're going add all these pieces and go to a Super Bowl in Year 1 if they get Garoppolo? I don't know about that. Belichick has to think their odds are much better in '22, so why not lay low, play hard to get and see if the 49ers come to their senses and trade or release Garoppolo — or maybe the Patriots find their long-term solution at QB in the meantime.
2. The popular storyline is the 49ers don't want to trade Garoppolo because they're Super Bowl contenders this year. Are they really? In a now-stacked NFC West, they might be headed for another last-place finish. The offensive line has been altered, the defense was 17th in points last year and has a new, green defensive coordinator. The 49ers were 6-10. If Garoppolo's absence was the reason, and he's that valuable, why would they sell the farm to draft a QB this year? The Patriots were 7-9 with Newton, and not many think they're Super Bowl contenders this year. Why are the 49ers contenders ... with a QB they don't think is a franchise QB?
Stop saying Garoppolo had to sit after being traded in '17 as evidence for the rookie to start on the bench. Garoppolo was traded in the middle of the season and missed just three starts (around a bye week). Going from one system to another in the middle of the season with no offseason is the reason why you rarely see starting QBs traded midseason. Robert Griffin III is the more apt comparison. He was the second overall pick of Mike and Kyle Shanahan (same scheme) with Washington in 2012, started Week 1, was NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, was voted to the Pro Bowl and led them to the playoffs.
3. Back to Garoppolo and the Patriots. The 49ers might want him. The Patriots might want him. But the only thing that matters is what Garoppolo wants, and what agent Don Yee will do to make that happen.
The case for Garoppolo forcing his way out of San Francisco:
- The 49ers just told Garoppolo they don't believe in him, and he is not their franchise QB. He's good enough to start this season — for how long? — but not next season? Why would a player ever want to stay around to get yanked at some point? Garoppolo could start 8-0 and the 49ers might bench his butt if they think the fair-haired next boy wonder is ready to drive that Cadillac.
- Garoppolo will be 30 this season. He should be entering the prime of his career. Say he sticks it out for this year, he'll be a year older and starting over in a new system with new players at age 31. That's no career path if the player believes he is a starting QB in this league.
- He's made $89 million ... he doesn't need his money this season. If he wants to go to a team that believes in him, then he just needs to threaten to sit out. Then the 49ers will have to do something, likely release him.
- Say Garoppolo doesn't report into the season. If he comes back in Week 8, the team will have started someone else (likely the top pick) and now they'll have a $25 million (prorated) backup. That's not smart. Might as well get what they can in a trade now.
- If the 49ers think they will likely play the rookie at some point, it'd be dumb to pay Garoppolo $25 million for this season when a guy like Gardner Minshew could do about the same in that system for $24 million less. Get a cheaper guy like Minshew as the bridge, if your team is as good as everyone keeps saying and Kyle Shanahan's an offensive genius, then that should be enough to win.
- Who the hell trades two future first-round picks (and more) to move up 10 spots pick a QB who will have to sit all of their rookie season? The Chiefs traded one future first to move SEVENTEEN spots to draft Patrick Mahomes. If you trade as much as the 49ers, that QB better play early, and you better get the rookie QB contract benefit (i.e. saving Garoppolo's $25 million) for all five seasons.
- If Garoppolo wants to go back to New England, the time is now. A year from now, the Patriots might have struck gold with either Newton or a drafted rookie, or someone like Aaron Rodgers might be available Brady-style after a renegotiation. If Garoppolo wants to play for Belichick and McDaniels, the time is now. It may be his only chance. Or, he could go to the Bears, play for a year in new surroundings before the coach and GM are fired and the new guys want their own QB.
- Basically, it's money. He's coming off a few injury-plagued seasons and if he was on the street right now in this cap atmosphere, there's no way he gets the two years and $51 million that's left on his contract. He might not even get that if he's traded; he might have to redo his deal to make that happen. If Garoppolo wants his $51 million, he has to stay there, keep the rookie on the bench and cash in after the season.
- Maybe he's not the competitor we all thought he was.
