McAdam: Red Sox lineup has the potential to hit a ton of homers

In the Red Sox' 7-6 win over the Atlanta Braves Tuesday, the big blow was a three-run homer from Xander Bogaerts in the third inning, his first homer of the spring.

That Bogaerts hadn't homered until the final week of Grapefruit League play stands as something of a surprise, since this spring, the Red Sox have been routinely hitting the ball out of the ballpark.

The Sox have hit 33 homers, the most of any team in the (Florida-based) Grapefruit League. In the Cactus League, only three teams have hit more - Kansas City (38), Chicago Cubs (34) and Milwaukee Brewers (34).

Of course, this being spring training, some perspective and context are very much in order. Spring stats are notoriously unreliable with so many factors (experience level of opposition, weather conditions, ballpark size to name just three) to take into account.

Still, the power potential for the 2021 Red Sox is significant.

"That's who we are and that's what we're going to do,'' said Alex Cora of his team's ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark.

When Cora speaks about the team's lineup, he unfailing mentions the fact that, even the bottom third of the lineup, the Sox possess plenty of pop. Bobby Dalbec, who will likely begin the year hitting ninth, is one of the strongest hitters on the roster, and after hitting eight homers in just 23 games last September, has the potential to hit 30 -- something no Red Sox No. 9 hitter has done since Butch Hobson in the late 1970s.

Newcomer Franchy Cordero, once he's fully ready to go, is expected to hit eighth, and while the enigmatic outfielder has never hit more than seven homers in a season -- due to injuries and inconsistency -- there's little doubt that he possesses the strength to hit plenty of balls out. At 6-3, 230 pounds, Cordero is an imposing physical specimen who looks like he should be playing tight end in the NFL.

Rounding out the bottom third is Hunter Renfroe, who, like Dalbec and Cordero, has enormous power. The difference with Renfroe is, he's already demonstrated that skill in the big leagues, averaging 28 homers per season between 2017-2019. What's more, Renfroe's homers came while playing half his game in cavernous Petco Park, one of MLB's most pitcher-friendly ballparks. Given his strength and tendency to pull power, Renfroe is likely to fare even better at Fenway.

And that's just the bottom third of the order, and doesn't account for Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, J. D. Martinez and Alex Verdugo.

As recently as two years ago, MLB's last full season, Martinez belted 36 homers while Bogaerts contributed 33 and Devers 32.

That gives the Red Sox four players who have hit 30 or more homers in a big league season.

A good measure of the team's power potential can be found in Michael Chavis, who is tied for the team lead in homers this spring with six, but isn't guaranteed a roster spot, much less a spot in the starting lineup.

"Part of the reason I signed here,'' offered starter Garrett Richards, "was because of (the offensive potential). Looking at the lineup, you've got a guy like Bobby Dalbec hitting (ninth). That's a pretty good lineup is he's hitting (there). Since I've been in the big leagues, the Red Sox have always been a team that's scored runs. That obviously makes the pitching side of things a little bit easier. I can go out there and I can pitch my game and not worry that if I give up a couple, is that going to be it?

"It's nice to know that. It's nice to know that your offense is always just one inning away from making it a ballgame again. Or, (extending) a lead. I'm really excited about that.''

An unknown factor when it comes to projecting homer totals is the changes being made to the baseball for 2021.  MLB has instructed its manufacturer, Rawlings, to loosen the tension on the wool windings of the baseball, to make the ball less lively. As a result, it's projected that balls that travel at least 375 feet may now travel a foot or two less. Exactly how that impacts the number of homers is unclear, but MLB was clearly responding to the record number of homers (6,776) that were hit in 2019.

Adjustments or not, homers are, more than ever before, a huge part of the game's offense. In 1980, homers accounted for approximately 25 percent of all the runs scored; in 2019, the number was over 40 percent.

With the increase in homers, however, has come a significant uptick in strikeouts, too. Renfroe, Dalbec and Cordero all have posted well above-average strikeout rates, and the last thing the Sox want to do is fall into an all-or-nothing approach at the plate. Teams that live by the home run can also go through droughts where the power dries up and, with it, any chance of scoring a sufficient amount of runs.

The Sox do not want to be that one-dimensional and Cora believes that won't be an issue.

"I believe we can do more than just hit home runs,'' Cora said. "I know we're leading Florida in home runs, but we're also second in on-base percentage, OPS. All the other stuff that matters, we're on top. And we're not striking out that much. We can put the ball in play. From top to bottom, we do believe we can put up competitive at-bats and we can score in different ways.''