Karalis: Three reasons why Boston might be considering trading Marcus Smart

Here are a few things the Boston Celtics have said about Marcus Smart over recent years. 

“Marcus Smart is the heart and soul of this team,” Jaylen Brown said a couple of months ago. 

“He’s a guy that keeps us going, keeps us inspired, keeps us competitive, he’s our dog,” Grant Williams said during last season’s playoffs. “He’s just going to compete his butt off, and we follow that standard and follow that lead.” 

“This is the part about Marcus that I love. His fire, his competitiveness,” Brad Stevens said in 2019 after Smart lashed out at the coaches. “If there’s a moment where he’s upset with us, that’s all part of it. ... We’ve been together a long time. I’ve been yelled at before and that’s ok. I love him and I trust him.”

The praise for Smart has come often, and it has largely been effusive. Many fans (though not all) feel the same about Smart. 

Yes, he has flaws, but he has fire and he can change games with his signature brand of ferocity.

However, with a few notable exceptions, no one is untouchable in the business of the NBA. So while it might have come as a shock to hear Smart’s name come up in trade rumors, it shouldn’t be a surprise. 

The NBA, as you’ll hear it said many times over the next couple of days, is a business, and decisions on a player’s future have to be made with things other than heart and soul come into play. 

So why would the Celtics even consider moving him in a deal? Here are a few answers. 

1. They have no choice.

If, in fact, the Celtics are getting Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier, they’ll be taking nearly $35.3 million in salary. The Celtics are $22 million away from the hard cap and $15.7 million away from the luxury tax, both numbers Boston would like to avoid. 

Using both Smart and Tristan Thompson in this deal equals $22.7 million in salary equals a $12,581,936 increase, enough to keep Boston under the luxury tax. The Celtics can further mitigate it with another player or two if the deal expands, but Smart’s salary would be necessary to make this work. 

Of course, your counter to “They have no choice” might be “Sure they do! Don’t add Fournier to the deal!” Which, sure, that’s a more preferable option, but we’re working under the reported parameters of the deal. I understand that the reported parameters might not be how it goes. I also understand that there could be a third team involved that negates the necessity of including Smart. 

But I’m working with a Boston/Orlando deal only, and I’m including the names that exist in the rumor to see where this might go. 

2. He’ll get too expensive.

If they manage to pull a deal like this off and keep Smart, then there are real decisions to be made. Here are next year’s salaries: 

Kemba Walker: $36,016,200
Jayson Tatum: $28,103,500
Jaylen Brown: $25,633,929
Aaron Gordon: $16,409,091
Marcus Smart: $14,339,285

This is $104 million on five players without deciding on whether to re-sign Fournier. The cap next season is projected to be $112 million with a luxury tax line of $136.6 million. If Fournier gets the exact same number as this season, it will add $17.1 million to this number. 

The Celtics will certainly be a tax team next season if this holds. We can say “ok, fine, they’ve been willing to pay the tax and, depending on how other things work, it might not be bad,” but this would also be Smart’s contract year. 

If the Celtics feel like they simply don’t want to pay Smart’s market value in the summer of 2022, then they may just rationalize dealing him now by deciding they don’t want to go through a whole year of trade rumors next season.

3. They feel he has peaked and, maybe, the injuries concern them.

Smart just turned 27, which is really the beginning of his prime, but his shooting has waned a little this season. His 3-point shooting peaked in 2018-19 at 36.4%. Last season it dropped to 34.7%, and now it sits at 33.3%. 

His 2-point shooting jumped 5.5% from last year but it’s still 4% lower than its peak in ‘18-19. Notably, his free throw shooting has dipped this season as well, down to 77.9% from 83.6% last season. 

This could simply be the byproduct of a weird year. Smart is a very willing shooter, but he’s shown that he knows how important shot selection is. So the Celtics have to ask themselves, is Smart regressing, or is he just trying to do too much in an effort to help out a struggling offense? 

If Danny Ainge feels like the dip in production, along with the inevitable bumps, bruises, or worse, outweigh the maniacal bump in energy, then they’d be more willing to listen to offers that include him. 

The question, ultimately, is this: Is whatever they believe about Smart in this moment real, or is it influenced by the weirdness of this season? 

If it’s the latter, then maybe they ought to consider keeping the only one on this team with a chip on his shoulder. We have barely seen a full Celtics roster get any extended run together. Robbing this team of its one true spark plug could be more damaging than they realize. 

However, if the internal feeling is that Smart’s production and decision-making just don’t match that fire, then they’ll likely take the public relations hit and move on, hoping the players they acquire can jolt the rest of the team into focus. The players they acquire might just be part of a bigger, long-term plan, which means rough decisions need to be made.