With 28 games under their belt, the Bruins are officially at the midway point of the 2021 season — with Boston entering Sunday afternoon in fourth place in the East Division with a record of 16-8-4.
Before the new campaign got underway back in January, we tossed out eight "way-too-early predictions" for this Bruins team — hinting at potential breakout candidates and gauging the ceiling of this roster in what could be the final kick at the can for this veteran core. Well, it took all of eight days for one of those predictions to crumble, as Zdeno Chara headed down to D.C. on a $795,000 contract.
Fair to say, not everything has gone according to plan in Boston — be it injuries, a lack of production from some key cogs or this current stoppage due to COVID-19 protocols. Still, even with a few whiffs, a couple of our predictions are still holding steady nine weeks in. Let's revisit those eight predictions from late December and see just how we're holding up.
1. Entering the final week of play, the Bruins will be vying for the top spot in a revamped “East” Division
Well, by the time the Bruins resume play (as early as Thursday against the Islanders) after getting two games postponed due to multiple players entering COVID-19 protocols, there stands a good chance that the B's — points-wise — could be on the outside looking in at the playoff picture in the East Division, depending on just how many wins the Flyers snag over the next few days. Even though many expected this division to be awfully cramped near the top, it didn't seem like Boston was going to be one of the "bubble" teams in this mix, but a concoction of injuries and more secondary-scoring woes have prevented the B's from building some breathing room and maintaining their top-seed status that they held for most of the first six weeks of this year.
Of course, things can change in a hurry, and Boston currently sits eight points behind the first-place Capitals (who are 7-1-0 since losing to Boston back on March 5) and the Islanders — who have been surprisingly mortal on the road (7-7-2 - with four games at TD Garden still scheduled) and will lose captain Anders Lee for the remainder of the 2021 season due to knee surgery.
But on the opposite end of the same token, all it takes is another extended slump to really put Boston behind the eight-ball in the East, especially if an underperforming Flyers club starts to heat up. I mean, Carter Hart really can't keep playing at this level (3.70 GAA, .880 save percentage), right? ... Right?
It remains to be seen if Boston can leapfrog the Caps/Isles in the standings, but the Bruins (if healthy / with outside help added to the lineup) certainly have the ability to climb up from the No. 4/5 seed over the final six-plus weeks of the season.
2. Charlie McAvoy garners Norris Trophy consideration
Even though his tangible offensive production has cooled off as of late (zero points in his last seven games), few blueliners in the NHL can match what McAvoy brings on a nightly basis in terms of his ability to eat up minutes, drive play (especially at even strength) and negate scoring chances down the other end of the ice. Even though he may not be the current favorite for the Norris Trophy, the 23-year-old defenseman should absolutely be in the running, with McAvoy averaging 24:02 of ice time and ranking fourth on the Bruins with 17 points (three goals, 14 assists) through 28 games this year.
One has to shudder if asked to imagine what this shorthanded and young Bruins D corps would look like if McAvoy was out of commission for an extended stretch, with McAvoy ranking first amongst a pool of 157 NHL defensemen (min. 300 minutes of 5v5 ice time) in SF% (61.60) — with Boston holding a 300-187 edge in shot on goal when McAvoy has been out on the ice during 5v5 play.
While reinforcements on the left side like Jeremy Lauzon are expected to return in short order, Boston might be inclined to keep that top D pairing of McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk together moving forward — with Boston holding a commanding edge in shots on goal (77-29) and goals scored (5-1) during their 113:00 of 5v5 ice time together.
He may not be on track to take home some individual hardware this season, but you could very well make the case that McAvoy has been Boston's team MVP through the first half of the year, and is certainly raising his stock and putting himself at the forefront of the conversation when it comes to elite, franchise defensemen in the NHL.
(Over the last three seasons, McAvoy ranks in the 99th percentile among NHL defensemen in even-strength offense and the 94th percentile in even-strength defense. Pretty, pretty good.)
3. Bruins embrace a youth movement on defense, but Zdeno Chara re-ups just ahead of camp
WELL, this one unraveled pretty quick — although there's some truth to it, right?
Indeed, a little over a week after these predictions were first posted, Chara inked a deal with the Capitals — with Boston moving forward with a largely unproven D corps with expanded roles in line for youngsters like Lauzon, Jakub Zboril and others.
While Chara was reportedly looking for more guaranteed playing time when he opted to leave Boston and sign with the Caps, it sure seems like a reserve role wouldn't have actually been the case for Chara if he remained with the Bruins in 2021, given the amount of injuries that have decimated Boston's D corps. And even if you wanted to overlook injuries, Chara would have still offered plenty of value to this B's team, given that the future Hall of Famer is currently averaging 19:02 of ice time with the Caps while earning the lion's share of Washington's tougher defensive assignments (41.89% Off. Zone faceoff percentage). Yep, he still has some gas left in the tank.
Even though Chara's departure has freed up McAvoy a bit more on Boston's top D pair (especially when skating with Grzelcyk) — and the B's PK has continued to thrive (89.4% kill rate - 1st in NHL) — Boston is in desperate need of skaters at this point, with their longtime captain's absence looming more and more as the B's continue to dive further down the depth chart in search of able-bodied defenseman.
As far as a youth movement goes, I definitely hit the nail on the head — with seven of the 11 D-men that Boston has rolled out this season under 26 years old (McAvoy, Carlo, Lauzon, Zboril, Clifton, Ahcan and Vaakanainen).
4. Even without Krug, Bruins finish with a top-five power play
While Boston's penalty kill has been as stout as ever — even without Chara anchoring that unit — the other half of Boston's special-teams unit in their normally lethal power play has lost a solid amount of punch now that Torey Krug is out playing in St. Louis. Despite a strong start this season (buoyed by a number of netfront tallies from Nick Ritchie) Boston's power play has tailed off by quite a bit since the calendar turned to March, with the B's currently ranked 10th overall in the NHL with a 25.00% success rate.
Now, of course, cashing in on one out of every four power-play opportunities is far from a bad thing. But given how reliant Boston is on generating offense from its top line and what is normally a top-five ranked man advantage, the margin of error is awfully slim for a power play that — until more secondary scoring starts to break through — needs to routinely dice up opposing PK units.
Whether it be due to a lack of movement up top (Matt Grzelcyk, Charlie McAvoy and David Krejci have all taken turns operating in Krug's spot), teams making a concerted effort at taking away Patrice Bergeron at the bumper (and closing up any passing lanes to David Pastrnak at the left circle) or just sloppy execution, Boston's power play still has much more to give this season. Still, given the amount of talent present on that PP1 unit, it'd be unwise to bet against this grouping hitting their stride once again in 2021. It's simply too good of a group to remain this hot-and-cold for the next six weeks.
5. Trent Frederic settles into a fourth-line role by spring
Entering this season, Bruce Cassidy seemed to have an embarrassment of riches when it came to crafting a crucial fourth line with multiple lineup combinations, with the likes of Sean Kuraly, Chris Wagner, Par Lindholm, Greg McKegg, Karson Kuhlman and perhaps even Nick Ritchie all deserving of looks on a checking unit that is routinely tasked with negating an opposing top-six line.
Fast forward two months, and, well, any semblance of a stable fourth line (like the Merlot Line or the Acciari-Kuraly-Wagner grouping) has yet to manifest for this club, especially with both Kuraly and Wagner currently failing to live up to expectations and recently finding themselves out of the lineup rotation. But despite the underperformance of key cogs in a group that Cassidy regularly relies on, there have been a few bright spots — none more so than Frederic, who has quickly become a bottom-six regular for this club.
While Frederic's ability to drop the gloves, stand up for his teammates and get under opponents' skin (and draw penalties) have been well-documented, his contributions outside of just his snarl have made a sizable impact on whichever line he's been on. Frederic's improved strength and speed has made him much more involved and effective on the forecheck — while his four goals (three of which have been game-winners) have also been a ray of light on an otherwise dreary bottom-six unit so far this year.
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Cassidy still needs to determine which three skaters make the most effective fourth-line grouping going forward, but whatever combination the B's bench boss settles on — it's pretty much a given that Frederic will hold on to one of those spots, and will probably be damn good at whatever role is handed to him.
6. Craig Smith wins the 7th Player Award
Given the lofty underlying numbers that Smith generated for himself in Nashville — coupled with the expectation that the veteran would help solve Boston's 5v5 scoring woes outside of that top line — it seemed like the winger was going to be a shoo-in for the 7th Player Award, which is given annually to the Bruin who exceeded the expectations of Bruins fans.
However, even if Smith has been as advertised in terms of putting pucks on the net (15th in NHL in 5v5 shots on goal per 60 minutes) the production hasn't exactly followed — with Smith tallying five goals and 10 total points through 27 games this season. Prior to lighting the lamp in Boston's 4-1 victory over the Sabres on Thursday, Smith had only tallied one goal in his previous 17 games. Of course, there stands a chance that a volume shooter like Smith heats up down the stretch, but at this point, the 7th Player Award sure seems like it's Trent Frederic's to lose, right?
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7. Bruins swing trade for top-4 D
This one has yet to manifest quite yet this season, but it almost seems like a certainty if Boston realistically plans on orchestrating another Cup run this summer. While Boston definitely needs an upgrade at the wing ahead of the April 12 deadline in order to give its top-heavy offense a shot in the arm, you can certainly make the case that Boston also needs to shore up its D corps as well. Even if guys like Lauzon, Carlo and Kevan Miller all eventually return to the lineup, there's still an awful lot of risk involved with feeding youngsters like Lauzon and Zboril to the wolves in the postseason, especially in featured roles that can't necessarily be sheltered with heavy O-zone starts.
As we noted last month, Boston should absolutely be keeping tabs on Nashville defenseman Mattias Ekholm — who would not only serve as a veteran, minutes-eating presence in the top four, but is also one of the top 5v5 play drivers from the blue line, which could also go a long way toward generating more scoring chances outside of that top line and power play. Even if Boston strikes out in the Ekholm sweepstakes, don't be surprised if Boston is linked to a number of other defensemen who could be out there on the trade market, such as David Savard, Ryan Murray and Jamie Oleksiak.
8. The Bruins face off against the Maple Leafs in the Stanley Cup Final
Well, it's still in play, right? Still, unless Boston adds more impactful pieces ahead of the deadline (and more lineup regulars start pulling their own weight), it remains to be seen if this Bruins team can be viewed as a top contender this season. And even if Boston loads up for the stretch run, the road back to the championship will be far from easy — especially with juggernauts like the Lightning, Avalanche, Golden Knights, Hurricanes, Panthers (??) and yes, the Leafs, awaiting whichever team makes it out of the East Division.
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