The Bruins know all too well just how lethal this roster can be when Charlie Coyle and their third line is clicking.
Look no further than the B's run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2019, in which the trio of Coyle, Marcus Johansson and Danton Heinen combined for 15 goals and 35 points in the postseason — with Boston holding a 7-4 edge in goals scored during that line's 134:01 of 5v5 ice time.
And even though two of those three skaters were skating in different colored sweaters come by the time training camp opened back in January, there was plenty of optimism that the 2021 Bruins were going to field their deepest forward corps yet, due in large part to additions in the middle-six corps.
With Jake DeBrusk and Ondrej Kase (welp) expected to compliment David Krejci on the second line, Coyle was handed the keys to a forward grouping with a big-bodied winger poised for a rebound in Nick Ritchie on the left side and a shot-first, analytics darling in Craig Smith on the right side. Those wingers, paired with a puck-possession monster in Coyle that deservedly earned himself a new five-year contract extension with his hometown club in November 2019, offered plenty of intrigue — and high expectations — for a B's team with Stanley Cup aspirations, and the need for some consistent even-strength offense outside of the usual suspects in 63-37-88.
Of course, the injury bug had other plans. And even though Bruce Cassidy rolled with the Ritchie-Coyle-Smith trio for most of training camp, those three have ultimately only played a little over 58 minutes of 5v5 ice time together. Still, given their respective talents, all three of Coyle, Smith and Ritchie have been slotted all across Boston's top three lines — with their size, puck puck and shot all expected to help generate offense regardless of where they were penciled in on the lineup.
And while Ritchie has at least served as a bright spot — especially as a netfront option on the power play — the same can't be said for both Coyle and Smith.
When it comes to chronicling the struggles of a listless Bruins' offense that has not scored an even-strength goal in 155 minutes of game action, there are more than just a few culprits responsible for Boston's secondary-scoring gears being stuck in neutral.
But for as much as guys like Jake DeBrusk have received plenty of flak through the first two months of this season, it's time to focus some of that critical lens elsewhere in the Bruins' lineup — because be it in their role as a third-line playdriver or a middle-six sniper, both Coyle and Smith simply aren't getting it done.
Boston's offensive performance against the Penguins on Monday was at least an improvement from Saturday's dud against the Rangers. But given how low the floor was (zero high-danger scoring chances, 18 shots on goal against New York), the B's didn't have to do all that much to warrant a higher grade when it came to their O-zone play at PPG Paints Arena. Still, for as much as lines 2-4 still labored when it came to generating quality looks against Penguins netminder Tristan Jarry, Boston at least made an emphasis to pepper the Pens' goalie — landing 43 shots in the eventual 4-1 loss.
Not one of those shots came off the stick of Coyle, however, with his revamped third line with Ritchie and Anders Bjork both outscored (1-0) and outshot (5-2) in their 6:33 of 5v5 ice time. Even though Coyle is primarily known more as a passer than a finisher, the Weymouth native's reluctance to at least fire off a shot or two has led to many extended O-zone possessions that fizzle out with next to nothing to account for it.
Zero shots on goal in a loss where you landed 43 shots on net is a tough look for Coyle, but the 29-year-old center hasn't landed a single shot on goal in five straight games — with his last attempt that reached a netminder coming all the way back on March 5 against the Capitals. That's not exactly what you're looking for in a guy you're paying $5.25 million a year through 2026, with Coyle now stuck in a 17-game rut that has seen him light the lamp three times and dish out one assist.
(A look at Coyle's event map from Monday night. Not nearly enough in the offensive zone for a guy tasked with a critical role in terms of sparking even-strength chances.)
"I think he just has to drive the line by being a little less cerebral and worrying about who his linemates are," Cassidy said of Coyle's lack of tangible production last month. "They have moved around and he's with Richie, Smitty's been there a lot for him and they were good in camp, I thought they were our best threesome in camp. ... Just talking to (Charlie) a little bit yesterday, it's just taking care of your own game. Just play. Trust your instincts and let your wingers kind of feed off you as opposed to you worrying about 'Well what do my wingers need?' And doing it the opposite, just play your game and let them adjust.
"And usually when a centerman drives a line — and by drive the line, I mean demand the puck, attack with the puck, be the force that's creating offense, the line will go well. I've always thought that and in his case, I don't think it's it's any different. ... He's always liked to pass the puck first before shoot. So just find the right balance. I don't know that we're gonna necessarily change that, but just not enough attack in his game. Regardless what he decides to do as he gets closer to the net, shoot or pass."
Smith spent time up with Krejci's line on Monday, but the B's top free-agent acquisition has found himself in a similar 17-game slide as Coyle — with the veteran forward only scoring one goal since Feb. 3. Speaking ahead of Monday's matchup in Pittsburgh, Cassidy noted that some of Smith's struggles might have something to due with a lack of attack from his primary pivot in Coyle, although it might go a bit deeper than just personnel and who is skating with who.
"Well, it's dried up on a lot of our guys. So I don't think it's just him," Cassidy said of Smith's lack of scoring. "He hasn't been with us that long that I can pinpoint exactly what's happened in the past, how he's got out of it, or if he's been streaky or not. I'm sure there's data on that. But at the end of the day, I think for our whole group, playing off the original shot, finding some loose puck situations and going from there will work for everybody.
"Power play, obviously we haven't been on it enough to get a second unit involved as it is. We play our first group a little more often, so I'm sure he's losing some touches there. That doesn't help. So you put those two things together. And I think Charlie Coyle has struggled to create offense, to be perfectly honest with you. And that will usually affect the wingers, just the way it is and centers typically drive lines. So we move some people around to hopefully re-energize them."
Still, regardless of where he's been in the lineup, Smith has struggled to generate the same strong production he found in Nashville when he was regarded as one of the best bargains in the league.
Last season, there were 668 NHLers that logged at least 200 minutes of 5v5 ice time. Among that group, Smith ranked...
41st overall in 5v5 goals per 60 minutes —1.12
5th overall in 5v5 shots per 60 minutes —11.74
5th overall in 5v5 individual expected goals for per 60 minutes — 0.98
21st overall in 5v5 individual shot attempts per 60 minutes — 16.67
37th overall in 5v5 individual high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes — 4.55
So far in 2021, there have been 531 skaters with 200 minutes of 5v5 ice time. This time around, Smith ranks...
210th overall in 5v5 goals per 60 minutes — 0.57
20th overall in 5v5 shots per 60 minutes — 9.84
56th overall in 5v5 individual expected goals for per 60 minutes — 0.77
11th overall in 5v5 individual shot attempts per 60 minutes — 17.59
191st overall in 5v5 individual high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes — 2.84
So even if he's averaging a bit more shot attempts at 5v5 play, the rest of his metrics (especially expected goals - which factor in shot quality and location) have plummeted.
(For reference on Micah Blake McCurdy’s individual impact charts via Hockey Viz — On the offensive side of things, you’d want to see a player providing positive numbers — with the red blobs signifying where the team is generating a majority of their shots from whenever said player is on the ice. Defensively, negative numbers are a sign that a team is snuffing out opposing scoring chances whenever said player is on the ice. As such, the blue blobs represent where the opposition’s shots aren’t regularly coming from. As seen above, the Bruins are generating a slightly higher expected goals per 60 minutes rate when Smith is out on the ice. Still, it hasn't nearly been enough to spark consistent points on the stat sheet, especially given the lack of shots from in and around the net.)
Unlike fourth-line grinders and younger players, it would seem unlikely that veterans like Coyle and Smith are going to spend much time out of the lineup (aside from a scratched game or two), nor is it realistic to think the Bruins can just easily deal the two away (nor are they looking to). No, regardless of who Don Sweeney adds or doesn't add to this lineup ahead of the trade deadline, it seems like a given that both Coyle and Smith are here to stay in the B's lineup.
As such, the onus is on them to start pulling their weight – and soon. Or the promise of them routinely lighting the lamp in the 2021 playoffs won't come remotely close to fruition, given that Boston might be on the outside looking in at the playoff picture if this slide continues.
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick and HockeyViz.