Bedard: NFL finally sets the salary cap; Thuney tag fallout; Updating Pats street FA list

The NFL finally set the 2021 salary cap at $182.5 million for each team, which is down $15.7 million from the previous year.

Where does that leave the Patriots compared to the other teams?

This is where OverTheCap.com has it:



In the AFC East, the Bills have work to do and will be losing some players.

The Dolphins can do a lot considering a depressed market, and the Patriots and Jets can obviously do anything they want.

I would expect the Jaguars, Jets, Washington, Broncos and Dolphins to be very active. 49ers too if they can part with Jimmy Garoppolo.

Setting up to be a very good situation with the Patriots.

FINAL WORD ON THUNEY TAG

Of course, the Patriots would lead the league with $84 million if they didn't tag Thuney a year ago. Somewhat surprised by the pushback, even here (Twitter is a cesspool), that seems to fall into two camps: 'it's hindsight and there were other circumstances' (no it wasn't, no there weren't ... teams including the Patriots go through these calculations every year on whether or not to use the tag or is the team better off banking the savings and the comp pick — like Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins (twice), Nate Solder, etc, etc over the years that I was fine with), or 'you're right, I just don't want to hear about it anymore.'

This will be the last word, until the Patriots come up $15 million short on a free agent, because people were trying to poke holes in it.

I asked Nick Korte, the comp pick guru at OverTheCap.com a couple of questions to make sure I was being factually correct:

If the Patriots let Thuney walk last year and say he signed $15 million AAV, and the Patriots had the exact same offseason, would they have an extra third comp this year? Or would it affect the two fourths?

Yep, they'd have an extra 3rd round comp pick, probably around 100th overall. Even on his tag that was just under $15M APY, I had his contract valued well within the 3rd round. Starting offensive linemen often do well in the formula due to the snap count boost.

If Thuney signs for $15 million AAV this offseason and say the Patriots, as expected, use their cap space and sign at least one player in that AAV area (a TE or WR, for example), wouldn't they cancel each other out for 2022 comps?

Yes, there's a chance Thuney's departure this offseason could get canceled out. If they sign a compensatory free agent (CFA) valued at the same round, he'll get canceled no matter what. The Patriots also have to lose more CFAs than they sign.

I read your article and I think you're definitely on the right track as far as identifying the possible consequences that could have come with tagging Thuney last season.

Do you know if the Patriots still could have rolled over that $15 million? Like there weren't new cap rules with Covid or anything, right? You seem to know that stuff too.

Yep, that would have been rolled over.

STREET FREE AGENTS THAT COULD APPEAL TO PATRIOTS

Adam Schefter just reported that Emmanuel Sanders was just released by the Saints. I'd add him to the list of players who would help the Patriots at the team's cost.

Remember, these don't count in the compensatory pick formula.

Here's are our lists of possible cap casualties over the past month:

AFC
NFC
SHORT LIST
ACTIVE LIST OF SFAS

Let's add to the list we had going:

HIGHER INTEREST

LB Kwon Alexander, Saints: Injured shortly after being traded from the 49ers, this could be very little risk and high reward for a tackling machine with speed.

DT Henry Anderson, Jets: He is not a declining player, and probably has never been used properly. He would thrive in this system. The Patriots have to get more guys with this size and talent profile. They need to make this happen.

NT Kawann Short, Panthers: I’ve always loved the guy they call KK. I’m sure Dave Gettleman is trying to get his former Carolina hog moly (his famous phrases for big linemen on either side of the ball) to the Giants, but it sure seems like a Cam Newton reunion may be of interest to Short. This is a guy Newton could vouch for the Patriots with, even if he didn’t immediately sign.

DE Carlos Dunlap, Seahawks: The former Bengal is still playing at a high level and while he is more of a pass rusher, he can defend the run as well.

WR Emmanuel Sanders, Saints: The almost-Patriot so many times, it's time to bring him here on a one-year deal. Not as durable anymore, but he's still solid.

LATER, AND/OR ON PATS’ TERMS

LB Christian Jones, Lions: Had him earmarked ... Matt Patricia gave him an extension. Special teamer. You know he's signing here.

DE Adrian Clayborn, Browns: Fit here before as a veteran edge guy, and would again on short terms.

LB Kyle Van Noy, Dolphins (he has not been released yet): The former Patriot is a bit of a tweener between the top two groups. I don’t see the Patriots giving him his Dolphins contract, and I think Van Noy wants to be paid like that and he might get it. But the Patriots have Chase Winovich, Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings now, plus there will be cheaper and similar players to Van Noy available (Olivier Vernon for one) so why would the Patriots expend themselves for a player who has always thought very highly of himself?

TEs Kyle Rudolph, Vikings; Jared Cook, Saints: The Patriots are not going to extend themselves for an aging veteran, even at a position of desperation like tight end. The Patriots want to leave themselves open for players like Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith. Maybe they would be more willing to sign a Rudolph or Cook if both Henry and Smith are tagged by their teams.

WR Golden Tate, Giants: Similar to the tight ends. The Patriots like him but he’ll be 33 this season and he got benched by Joe Judge. Patriots usually make a guy like that beg for a spot.

WR Adam Humphries, Titans: Turned down the Patriots’ late attempt to sign him two years ago, but he’s missed 13 games since then. So they’ll make him grovel. Would be a good Julian Edelman replacement for a year.

DT Jurrell Casey, Broncos: Not exactly an ideal fit for the Patriots because he’s always been a gap penetrator. I think Casey would be tied to what happens with Adam Butler. If Butler walks in free agency, then Casey could be a veteran stopgap.

TE Tyler Eifert, Jaguars: Would be a veteran roster filler until he proved otherwise.

DE Allen Bailey, Falcons: He’d be on the second tier of street free agents at end, but I think he has some good football left.

CB A.J. Bouye, Texans: Would only be needed if the Patriots moved on from Stephen Gilmore and, probably, Jason McCourty.

CB Malcolm Butler, Titans: A reunion? Only if desperate and cheap.

DOUBTFUL/NOT A FIT

CB Lamarcus Joyner, Raiders: Belichick might think he can get something out of him on a cheap deal.

RB Duke Johnson, Texans: In years past? Maybe. Not since the Patriots started becoming Running Back U and throwing all sorts of assets at the position.

QB Alex Smith, Washington: I don’t hate Alex Smith and a healthy Alex Smith a year ago would have been a perfect bridge guy for this team. But he’s not healthy and I have a hard time seeing Belichick signing Smith over Newton at this point. That would be pretty insulting to Newton.

WR Desean Jackson, Eagles: I’ve been told the Patriots have no interest.

RG Gabe Jackson, Raiders: Was the worst of the Raiders’ five excellent linemen, and the Patriots are fine at guard.