It wasn't that long ago that Billy Beane kickstarted what was then called the "sabermetric revolution'' by searching for market inefficiencies and making do with his limited payroll.
The first such inefficiency was on-base percentage. Beane found this skill to be undervalued and went about stacking a lineup full of hitters who managed to consistently get on base.
For years, on-base percentage was all the rage, rewarding previously undervalued players for their skill in this department.
Fifteen or so years later, that approach seems almost quaint. Analytics has grown by leaps and bounds, and there are seemingly countless ways for teams to measure a player's value. And because much of the information is no longer proprietary, teams tend to all value players in the same way, resulting in a cautious -- if not outright stagnant -- free-agent market.
Now that the revolution has evolved, do teams still place a value on on-base ability? Given the current trends in the game -- with a big emphasis on hitting the ball out of the ballpark -- it would seem not. With strikeouts at an all-time high, most organizations appear comfortable trading off the need to reach base in exchange for the ability to trot around the bases.
In 2019, baseball's last full season, the average OBP was .323 -- down sharply from a dozen years prior, when the MLB average was .336. Meanwhile, in 2019, the homer-per-hit-allowed ratio hit an all-time high was 1.39, a marked increase from 1.02 in 2007.
Need more evidence of the shift in emphasis when it comes to getting on base? Over the winter, the Red Sox either signed or traded for four position players. Here are their career OBP figures:
Franchy Cordero: .304
Marwin Gonzalez: .317
Hunter Renfroe: .290
Kiké Hernández; .313
So, is the love affair on OBP officially over?
"I can't speak for the entire industry,'' said Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, "but I do think, generally speaking, it's something that everybody still values quite a bit. When I got in the game, I think it was still underappreciated at that point in time. Then, as time went on, it became very much appreciated.
"But now, I think, we have more ability to understand and appreciate all the ways that players can contribute to winning baseball -- whether that's through on-base, whether that's through power, or whether it's through foot speed or defense or versatility. So I think as we've become more able to value many different players can do to contribute, I think, in comparison, it's probably reduced the emphasis on on-base percentage.''
That would seem particularly true with this quartet of players, only one of whom -- Hernandez - would seem to have the potential to hit in the top half of the lineup, where getting on base is more of a pre-requisite. Renfoe and Cordero are classic ''all-or-nothing'' type hitters, capable of belting tape-measure homers -- when they're not striking out at record-setting numbers.
"We're not in an era of offense like we were 20 years ago,'' said Bloom. "But I still think hitters place as much emphasis on understanding the strike zone as they did then. I think it's more that, as an industry, we've come to value some other things that players do well, that allows them to be real contributors even if they're not on base all the time.''
For all their struggles last year, the Red Sox performed pretty well offensively in 2020. They were fifth in runs scored in the American League, first in batting average and third in OBP. The nucleus of Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez and Alex Verdugo gave them a solid offensive foundation, so the team searched for other qualities in adding to their roster.
"Part of what we wanted to go out and get,'' explained Bloom, "was athleticism and defensive ability and versatility and depth. So I think that naturally led us to players who, while we still believe that they're going to contribute offensively, also bring other strengths.''
By design or otherwise, three of the four position players (all but Cordero) came from winning environments. Gonzalez is coming off four straight division titles and a World Series, and the same can be said of Hernandez. Renfroe, meanwhile, was a member of the A.L. champion Tampa Bay Rays.
The analytics movement once famously dismissed intangibles like "character guys" or players who provided leadership. And yet, three of the newcomers are from winning environments and manager Alex Cora has already publicly stated that he'll be counting on Gonzalez and Hernandez specifically to help him in the clubhouse.
"I wouldn't say that was something that we systematically targeted,'' said Bloom. "But it's definitely something that we valued and something that we noted. I think chemistry and the attitude around a club is really hard to predict in advance, but it's really important. On a winning team, there's going to be players who emerge who you might not have expected but become huge parts of the fabric of the clubhouse. I don't think it's something we should put too much weight on going in.
"But when you know that somebody can bring positive energy and can bring a winning attitude and help the players around him, it's something that I think is reasonable that they're going to bring to a new place. (That quality) might not be something you can easily measure or something that you can express statistically, but I think especially when you are in a situation where you have young players and you're going to be integrating young players, it's important what veterans you put around those guys. It's important who sets the tone.''
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