A starting shift? 5 observations from an uneven opening week for the Celtics

A mix of observations and analysis as the Celtics opened up a challenging schedule with a 1-2 record to begin the year.

1. The jury is out on the double-big starting five: The idea of Brad Stevens starting Daniel Theis and Tristan Thompson together was not a complete shock to begin the year, especially against the big frontlines on Boston’s schedule out of the gate. However, whether it is a plan worth sticking with remains to be seen. The C’s have been consistently outscored when that duo has shared the floor together in the first three games, with an ugly -18 plus/minus over 30 minutes. The offense and defense have been relatively brutal in those stretches despite a hot start by the C’s on Sunday night in Indiana (15-4 run to begin the game). That was balanced out in the third quarter by a 16-2 Pacers run to take command of the game against the same lineup.

With Thompson missing all of the preseason and much of training camp, there has been limited time for the big-man duo to build chemistry on either end of the floor. However, the C’s fell to 1-2 on Sunday night and also have a daunting five games upcoming in seven nights starting on Tuesday, so the C’s can’t wait too long to play through these struggles if a switch is the right call from a rotation standpoint.

“I thought we spaced really well with those guys at the start of the game,” Brad Stevens said after practice on Monday. “The first six-to-eight minutes, we were playing really well offensively, we were generating good looks. They had a nice awareness too of when to roll, when to cut, how to space the floor for our guards, a couple of things we were trying to do a little bit differently than in the past with those guys. I thought we did that really well.

“The hardest part for me right now is gauging if that is more who we are or is the start of the third quarter more who we are, because they are two totally different stories, probably due to a lack of sample size. We've got to be the best version of ourselves quickly. I was hopeful that lineup would be very good defensively. I'm still hopeful of that. With that said, we have to have everything on the table because we playing such a tough schedule and it doesn't stop.”

The Pacers rematch on Tuesday night should provide a good test for the viability of this alignment over the long-term. If it’s not going to work against true bigs like Turner/Sabonis, counting on it against opponents that play smaller at power forward feels like a big mistake. In all honestly, it probably is best served as a situational starting combo against certain teams, but it also helps open up minutes for Grant Williams and Rob Williams if Theis/Thompson can play together. Whether that actually makes sense from a winning basketball standpoint (especially offensive spacing) remains to be seen. Theis is probably going to have to knock down some more 3s consistently to make it more viable from an offensive standpoint. Theis/Thompson had some bad moments in the third quarter on Sunday, but they were far from the only ones to blame amid a host of turnovers and defensive woes.

2. Boston’s early defensive woes start in transition: This has been an issue from the beginning of the preseason for the C’s and is probably the main factor contributing to Boston starting as the 26th ranked defense in the NBA through their first three games of the year. Three formidable offenses (Nets, Bucks, Pacers) have contributed to that stat, but a majority of those points have come thanks to easy opportunities. Boston has been a bottom-five team in the NBA in transition defense so far, allowing 19.3 fast break points per game.

“I would say that we started so bad transition defense-wise in the Brooklyn preseason game, and in the Milwaukee game at home, that we had nowhere to go but up,” Stevens said. “If you’re asking if it’s better – it’s way better. Is it good enough? No. That said, some of our issues yesterday – there were only a couple of issues off made field goals or field goal attempts. It was mostly off turnovers, and/or things we need to clean up on offense.”

While turnovers have not been a problem all year long for the C’s, they were a huge issue against a Pacer team that loves to get out and execute in the open court. The Celtics are allowing opponents to shoot a staggering 52 percent from the field over three games and that’s largely a byproduct of all kinds of open looks at the rim. The C’s need to start cutting down on those high-percentage opportunities to give themselves a better chance to hang in these games.

3. How long will we have to wait on Aaron Nesmith? The lottery pick has played nine total minutes in the first three games, which is a bit more understandable when you look at the competition the C’s were facing. Playing high-powered offenses requires good familiarity with the C’s schemes and instincts and it was evident in the preseason that Nesmith wasn’t there just yet. However, with five games coming up in the next seven nights for the C’s, we should begin to get a better idea of where the rookie stands in the hierarchy. Boston’s offense has been up-and-down as a whole, but there has been certain spots in games where the bench has gone ice-cold for stretches. Payton Pritchard looks locked in for regular minutes (64 percent shooting) but Jeff Teague (26 percent shooting) and Grant Williams (28 percent from 3) aren’t exactly showing a ton offensively early. Nesmith could serve as a valuable floor spacer with the bench lineup in spots, clearing the way for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to have some more openings to go to the rim. The margin of error for the C’s is thin right now after a 1-2 start, but given the dearth of reliable wing options on the bench, Nesmith probably deserves a crack at some minutes against lesser competition to get a better idea of whether he will sink or swim.

4. The Celtics aren’t getting to the line much: Tatum’s inability to get to the free throw line probably stands out as the most worrisome part of Boston’s first three games. He’s only made it there four times despite attempting 71 shots — with none of those four attempts coming on shooting fouls drawn in a half-court situation. The problem for the C’s is that there really aren’t many options elsewhere to create free throw opportunities if Tatum isn’t able to carry his weight. Brown is leading the team (five attempts per game) so far but beyond a hot night for Teague or Smart here or there, this isn’t a group that plays well through contact down low. So far, the Celtics are a bottom-five team in free throw rate and also have an assist rate that falls in the bottom-five as well. Better ball movement and perhaps better floor spacing (i.e. one true big on the floor instead of two) should help the Celtics put the defense in tougher spots, allowing for a better chances for guys like Tatum to draw fouls.

5. Offensive rebounding is an early strength, as it should be: The one upside of playing two bigs? Boston’s offensive rebounding has been elite so far, with Tristan Thompson and Robert Williams grabbing 15 percent of all available offensive rebounds, a terrific number for the two bigs. Daniel Theis has been useful on this front in the past as well, but his shift to a primary power forward has left him as a non-factor on the offensive glass so far, a sign that he’s served primarily as a perimeter screener and shooter within the offense so far. Whether that’s the best usage of him remains to be seen, but for the moment, it’s the clearest path for Brad Stevens to create minutes for Rob Williams and Grant Williams off the bench.