Bedard's Breakdown: With defensive decisions the past 2 games, are Patriots just trying to avoid getting blown out?

You could understand the start of the game.

The Patriots entered Sunday's contest most likely prepared to face a Dolphins offense with all of their important personnel in place — WR DeVante Parker, TE Mike Gesicki, WR Jakeem Grant and OG Ereck Flowers — considering Miami was battling for a playoff spot and really needed every game in order to hold off the likes of Baltimore and Las Vegas. Some of the players were even reported the night before to be ready to play against the Patriots. Tip of the cap to Brian Flores for the Belichickian mind games.

So when suddenly all of them were declared inactive 90 minutes before kickoff (did Flores have confidence in a victory against this fading group of Patriots and want his players healthy for the Raiders?), it was probably a bit late to change up the gameplan that would largely be similar to what the Patriots did against the Ravens — shut down the width of the field, make Miami fight you in a phone booth. And that plan worked on the first drive, a three-and-out.

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But on the second drive, the Dolphins changed. Sensing New England's plan, the Dolphins decided to do what Baltimore never did — they doubled up the inside run game with a lot of inside zones with two double-teams to the linebackers on the second level.



And, boy, did it work. The Dolphins went 95 yards on 15 plays — with six of the final eight plays being runs — before rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa threw an ill-advised interception under pressure from Chase Winovich to finally get New England off the field. The Dolphins did most of their damage against a Patriots box that featured just two defensive linemen and four linebackers — even against 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends).

You figured after that, the Patriots would adjust and put an extra defensive lineman (Akeem Spence was active and played six goal-line snaps) on the field. I mean, it was basically an open invite for the Dolphins to be physical against you.

And you'd be wrong. It was more of the same.



Surely following halftime, after the Patriots coaches had a chance to assess the damage (15 carries for 75 yards) and realizing without his weapons that Tagovailoa and the Miami passing game was limited and resembled the Patriots with Cam Newton, they would adjust like in the Super Bowl against the Rams with a glorified goal-line package, or a 5-2 front. Stop the run, force Tagovailoa to beat you with his arm and limited weapons.



Right?

Wrong. Again, more of the same.

First play of the second half:



But wait, it gets worse.

Here's a 2nd and 1 play for Miami that featured a who's who of Patriots defenders the coaching staff doesn't trust against the run: Josh Uche, Chase Winovich, Adam Butler, Deatrich Wise and Anfernee Jennings.

Needless to say, the Patriots were not successful in preventing the first down conversion.



In the second half, the Dolphins redoubled their running efforts sensing no opposition and basically ran the Patriots off the field.

Third-quarter rushing stats



Fourth-quarter rushing stats:



Included was this beauty on 3rd and 8, when the rookie QB knew the Patriots had no threatening personnel on the field and checked to a run. The Dolphins easily picked it up by completely displacing the Patriots' defense and making Wise look like he's in coverage based on how far down the field he is (second photo):



 



Just for kicks, let's see what Flores, the Patriots' former defensive coordinator, decided to do against a challenged quarterback who can run with limited weapons:



Interesting.

Three defensive linemen capable of defending the run. Four linebackers, including two inside backers within 3 yards of the line of scrimmage (not 5 to 7) and a safety in the grill of the tight end.

Eight players in the box and ready to be aggressive. Not six or seven playing loose with wide gaps or sets. Eight.

Sure, they were gashed a few times in the running game, but they were daring Newton to throw. And he did, ineffectively, 30 times compared to 22 rushes.

My question is, why did the Patriots never adjust? Why were they content — even inviting — Miami to run over them despite there being a rookie QB with no weapons on the field? Why were they content for the second-straight week (Rams rushed 36 times for 186 yards against 26 pass attempts in their 24-3 victory) to let the opponent manhandle them on the ground despite having personnel options to adjust?

My guess:

Maybe Bill Belichick knows his offense and QB, especially, are compromised and would be lucky to score one touchdown in a game (they haven't scored one in either of the last two games), let alone multiple touchdowns, so the entire aim is to minimize big plays and quick scoring strikes, and shorten the game, even if that means sacrificing his defensive players to get run over like they have tire marks on their backs.

Basically, Belichick's goal seems to be to not lose the game. He's not trying to win a game at this point. If that happens, it would be a happy accident basically created by the opponent imploding on itself, which the Dolphins almost did in the first half ... until Flores wised up in the second half.

The Patriots certainly aren't going to force the issue. Everyone knows the shakiest part of the Rams' offense is QB Jared Goff, so you would have expected them to shut down the run and force Goff to beat them. But no, that never happened.

Even against a rookie QB, which Belichick normally feasts off of, he actively avoided putting the game in Tagovailoa's hands. Why? Maybe Belichick is just trying to avoid being embarrassed because he knows his team is just that bad (perhaps that also partially explains why he has yet to play turnover-prone Jarrett Stidham to this point).

Yet against the Chargers and rookie Justin Herbert, the Patriots shut down the run and unleashed pressure to ride to a 45-0 victory.

Why in that game but not the two since?

Belichick knew the Chargers (3-9 after that game) weren't going to ever run away from the talented-starved Patriots. But the Rams (9-4) and Dolphins (9-5) could. They are good teams. The Patriots and the Chargers are not.

Either that, or Belichick decided that with 10 days between games — yes, this performance was after the team's first real layoff of the season, to add insult to injury — he would test Steve Belichick and Jerod Mayo by letting them devise the entire gameplan and handle all in-game adjustments and playcalls (considering the embarrassing 12-man on the field penalty following the quarter timeout when nobody even threatened to leave the field before the flag was thrown, kudos).



Either way, this has been an embarrassing two-game stretch for the Patriots, especially the defense — and leads you to question a bunch of things about this game and the decisions Belichick has made.

We'll leave you with one more: What the hell is Lawrence Guy doing on the field for the final play (below, right side of line) to be double-teamed to the ground by the opponent for what seemed like the 40th time in this game?! Talk about disrespect.

They can allow that to happen, but they can't play someone else at QB. No, that would be ridiculous.



OFFENSE

Quarterback (0.5 out of 5)

Broke two tackles running the ball and had a terrific play where he avoided the rush and found James White for 21 yards — the type of play Cam Newton has made throughout his career but rarely here — and that was it for the good stuff. ... Newton had 14 minus plays, including seven poor throws, two pressures allowed and a fumble. ... Jakobi Meyers' fumble never should have happened if Newton's throw was in front of him and not behind, leading him into the receiver. ... On the final sack of the game on fourth down, Newton had Meyers wide open but held it. He's consistently late on everything, including his completions. ... The deep left incompletions to N'Keal Harry and Dalton Keene were not placed properly. ... Newton seems to be getting worse with every week. He should be benched for the rest of the season. No question.

Running backs (4 out of 5)

Sony Michel ran hard and got great blocking, which normally coincides with his better games. ... JJ Taylor's run was in the wrong hole, but he did draw a penalty on a pass route.

Receivers (4 out of 5)

Meyers was really good in this game, as he bailed out Newton on some of his errant or short throws, and Meyers ran some really nice routes. Would be perfect in a No. 3 role going forward. ... I don't blame Devin Asiasi completely for his drop on a ball Newton threw 127 mph from 7 yards away. ... Like Meyers, Keene might not have fumbled if Newton's pass got to him a little quicker.

Offensive line (4 out of 5)



Thought the line was mostly good in this game, with minimal pressure allowed and some very nice run blocking. ... Justin Herron had some issues, all in the second half. Emmanuel Ogbah has been a tough matchup as a sub rusher for a lot of people. ... Shaq Mason got off to a really slow start but recovered. ... Both Joe Thuney and David Andrews had a few more issues than the norm. The Dolphins really attacked. ... This might have been Mike Onwenu's best and most consistent game. ... Order of effectiveness: Onwenu, Andrews, Thuney, Mason, Herron.

DEFENSE



Defensive line (1.5 out of 5)

Outside of Tashawn Bower, no one was consistently good in this group. ... Josh Uche certainly made some plays and should have been credited with at least a half-sack (there will probably be a correction on the Adam Butler sack), but he also blew the edge on Tagovailoa's read-option touchdowns. Chase Winovich was happy to throw Uche under the bus for that by the way he motioned to the coaches after that play. ... Winovich caused the interception, and had two really nice pass drops in the first half, but didn't do anything in the second half as the Dolphins kept running. ... Very little blitzing in this game. More evidence of another flaccid defensive performance. ... Deatrich Wise is worn down after playing out of position for the second-straight season. Sunday was Titans playoff game-esque.

Linebackers (1 out of 5)

Terez Hall was awful in this game, yet the former undrafted free agent and practice squader was still good enough to start in the coaches' eyes over Anfernee Jennings — who is more often a day late and a dollar short on getting into plays from the backside — in the 14th game. Hall and Jennings were a disaster after Ja'Whaun Bentley went out with injury, as evidenced by the Dolphins' rushing after halftime.

Secondary (2.5 out of 5)

Kyle Dugger had a really strong game against the run — his speed and hard tackling is sorely missing from others — but that was about it. Even Jackson had the interception, but he missed two tackles (Dugger missed one). ... Myles Bryant blew a coverage on fourth down and he knew it.

THREE UP

RB Sony Michel: Had good blocking and ran hard, which was good to see. Nothing out of the ordinary, but productive.

WR Jakobi Meyers: Think about where this inept passing offense would be without Meyers. Oh second thought, don't.

DE Tashawn Bower: Had to get a defender in there to offset that 12-point offense, and Bower continues to show up with five impactful plays, including two pass breakups.

FOUR DOWN

LB Terez Hall: Aligned very deep, was slow to attack holes and rarely got off blocks. That's a bad combination for a Mike linebacker (once Bentley went out).

QB Cam Newton (first half): Had eight minus plays, including that ridiculous fumble that should have been seven points.

QB Cam Newton (second half): Had six minus plays, including four poor throws, a half QB hit and the final sack. No one else was close to as bad as those two players.

Bill Belichick: For the defensive plan, no adjustments, keeping Guy on the field, the 12-men penalty, and not spiking the ball with 2:30 left, kicking a 47-yard field goal and then using his two timeouts and the two-minute warning to try to tie the game. Not one of The Hoodie's Picasso's.