MLB Notebook: Free agent class soon to grow as non-tenders expected mid-week

Now, it's about to get interesting.

Following recent tradition, off-season activity has been virtually non-existent to date. The handful of free agent signings that have taken place have mostly been one-year deals and recently completed trade between Colorado and Cincinnati fell way short of the blockbuster variety.

But Wednesday represents hope that the logjam could be broken. That's the day that teams must tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players, signifying their intent to maintain control of them. Players not tendered contracts immediately qualify for free agency.

(In truth, teams must tender contracts to all players on their 40-man rosters not currently signed to multi-year deals. That includes players with zero to three-years major league service time, too. But because those players don't have the leverage of salary arbitration and can be paid as little as a team chooses -- as long as it doesn't fall below the MLB minimum of approximately $565,000 -- the cost is minimal and not enough for teams to consider a non-tender. With the rarest of exceptions, non-tenders are almost always arbitration-eligible players who stand to make significant salary gains through the process).

Non-tendering players is hardly a new concept. In fact, the process was what contributed to one of greatest Red Sox players in history joining the franchise. The Minnesota Twins determined that David Ortiz represented too great a jump in salary in December 2002, sending him into Theo Epstein's welcoming arms. Three World Series parades and some 483 homers later, it became one of Sox' shrewdest pickups.

But during baseball's nuclear winter, it's widely expected that there will be more non-tenders than ever before. Teams forfeited significant revenues in 2020 -- what with a 60-game schedule and no paying customers -- with many clubs suffering nine-figure losses. Industry-wide, Major League Baseball's profits were approximately one-third of the previous season.

What's more, the uncertainty about 2021 means more substantial financial losses -- at least for the first half of the season. The promise of vaccines may be on the horizon, but they're unlikely to arrive in time to allow for fans in the stands in the opening months.



That has owners ordering their front offices to slash payroll. The Yankees, who operate in the No. 1 market, are vowing to reduce spending. So, too, are other big-market franchises like the Philadelphia Phillies and the Chicago Cubs. A few teams -- the newly-purchased New York Mets, the Toronto Blue Jays -- are positioned to buck the trend, but they're the exception, not the rule.

Teams can't easily rid themselves of guaranteed long-term contracts already on the books. The next best cost-saving thing, then, is to elect to walk away from players in line for significant pay raises through the salary arbitration process. It's not unusual for players with four or five years of service time to see their salaries triple year-over-year.

The arbitration system awards achievement -- the better the performance, usually, the bigger the raise. But it also provides for big jumps simply for accruing additional service there, and it's here that teams can save considerably.

In past years, there might be 30 or 40 players non-tendered, many of them quite anonymous. The addition of those players don't demonstrably impact the free agent class. On rare occasions -- as with Ortiz -- a combination of good scouting, some projection and more than a little luck, an undervalued player can be found.

But this year figures to be different.

No one can accurately predict how many players will be non-tendered by Wednesday's deadline. But already, we have some clues.

A few weeks ago, the Cleveland Indians got everyone's attention when they walked away from a $10 million option from closer Brad Hand. Hand was 16-for-16 in save opportunities and is just 30, but the Indians saw declining his option as a way to save about 10 percent of their 2021 payroll. What's more: no one claimed Hand at that $10 million figure, making him a free agent. He's yet to sign elsewhere.

In the days that followed, more players joined Hand in having their options passed: Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong ($12.5 million); Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun ($15 million) and the Nationals' Adam Eaton ($10.5 million). None, to date, has signed elsewhere.

It's been theorized that teams have held off on making any free agent signings, knowing that the market will eventually be flooded once the non-tenders are let loose. Some positions which now seem thin -- like center field -- could soon be fortified once a whole new class of players join the ranks of the unemployed.

Meanwhile, teams are asking themselves: Why pick from the free agent class now and help establish market when more choices will soon become available, depressing salaries further?

One additional appeal of the non-tendered players: by definition, they tend to be younger than free agents. Players need six full years of service time to qualify for traditional free agency. Non-tenders, however, can have as little as three years of service time -- with few exceptions, the minimum amount needed -- making them younger chronologically and theoretically, less risky investments.

Before the Red Sox even get to see which non-tenders might appeal to them, they have to make decisions about their own candidates.

Already, the Sox have contributed to the growing free agency pile by passing on the $6.25 million option for lefty starter Martin Perez. Perez was the team's second-most dependable starter in 2020 and it was initially believed that his relatively affordable option represented a no-brainer. The Red Sox liked Perez, and given the many holes in their rotation, his return seemed inevitable.

But that was before they determined that $6.25 million was inflated in a buyer's market and passed. He remains unsigned.

Recently, they effectively non-tendered arbitration-eligible Ryan Weber by designating him for assignment. Weber cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple A, meaning the Sox continue to control him but are no longer bound by salary arbitration constraints. Rather than adhere to the findings of an arbitration panel, or negotiate with his agent, he's off the 40-man roster and, should be make the team, can be paid just above the MLB minimum.

Six other Red Sox players remain eligible for salary arbitration: relievers Matt Barnes, Austin Brice, Ryan Brasier,  third baseman Rafael Devers; catcher Kevin Plawecki and starter Eduardo Rodriguez.

Rodriguez and Devers, of course, are centerpieces of the Red Sox roster and will certainly be tendered. Brasier, who projects somewhere between $1-$1.6 million for his arbitration award, could be considered at risk. Bryce is inexpensive (pegged at about $700,000 via arbitration), though, it should be noted, so was Weber.

The two most interesting cases are Barnes and Plawecki.

Barnes finished the year as the team's closer, and in a bullpen full of castoffs and up-and-down guys, is easily the most established major leaguer. But he also stands to make as much as $5 million or more via arbitration and the Sox could determine that in an already-crowded reliever market, that's too expensive. They could non-tender him and then attempt to re-sign him at a lower figure -- or, of course, run the risk that he leaves as a free agent.

The same goes for Plawecki, who was one Chaim Bloom's best acquisitions in his first winter with the Red Sox. Plawecki solved the team's long search for a suitable backup catcher and enjoyed his best (.857 OPS) offensive season. But as with Barnes, the Red Sox could find themselves saying: "Yeah, we like him, but.....'' and come to the determination that $1.5-$2 million is too rich for a bench player -- however productive he was.

Already, there is plenty of speculation about which players could be non-tendered by other teams. The Yankees are weighing whether powerful but enigmatic catcher Gary Sanchez is worth $6 million in 2021. Similarly, the Mets have some decisions to make with a number of their pitchers, including Steven Matz.

A look at some possible non-tendered candidates that could interest the Red Sox:

Delino DeShields, OF, CLE: The free agent center field market is thin, with only George Springer and Jackie Bradley Jr. seen as viable, every day options. The Sox could use someone as a placeholder at the position until them deem Jarren Duran ready and DeShields -- with plus base-stealing ability and a reputation as a superb defender -- could provide them with an affordable option.

Johan Camargo, INF, ATL: Camargo is mostly a third baseman, but has played 69 games at second in the big leagues, He showed good power (18 homers) as recently as 2018, and if nothing else, could be an intriguing utility option, or, as a switch-hitter, platoon at second with Christian Arroyo. 

Jose Urena, SP, MIA: Urena has tantalizing stuff, but has underachieved, in part because of a string of injuries. For a team looking to build rotation depth, Urena could represent an intriguing, low-risk, high-reward signing.

Albert Almora, CF, CHIC: Almora holds the distinction of being Epstein's first first-round pick with the Cubs. Selected No. 6 overall in 2012, Almora has been something of a bust offensively (.707 career OPS), though he remains an above-average defender.

Corey Knebel, RP, MIL: As recently as 2017, Knebel was a beast at the back end of the bullpen, with 76 appearances, 39 saves and a 1.78 ERA as the Brewers closer. But that was before a dropoff in 2018 and a missed 2019 season because of Tommy John. He pitched poorly in 2020, but could be an intriguing bounce-back candidate for the Boston bullpen.

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Occasionally, managers and coaches make pronouncements about a player's skill set that seem arbitrary.

"So-and-so is one of the best in the game at....'' begin such evaluations, and too often, this is the result of an eye test with no real data to support the assessment.

But with analytics providing support for almost every measure these days, sometimes these statements can be proven conclusively.

Case in point: Red Sox officials have long maintained that Xander Bogaerts is among the game's best baserunners. Not fastest, necessarily, but most smartest and most efficient, with great instincts.

On the surface, you wouldn't presume that. Bogaerts is big (6-2, 220), and doesn't strike anyone as a speed demon, though he's been remarkably efficient (61-for-75) in stolen base attempts over his career.

But the recently published Bill James Handbook attempts to rank baserunning ability by determining how many extra bases a player gained on basepaths -- going first-to-third on a single, for instance, or scoring from first on a double, etc.

Unsurprisingly, Mookie Betts rated as No. 1 in 2020, plus-22 bases.  But not far behind, tied for 5th among all major leaguers, is Bogaerts at plus-16.

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According to the Globe and Mail, the Toronto Blue Jays are intent on tearing down Rogers Centre and replacing it, in roughly the same spot, with a baseball-only facility that would be more in line with modern ballparks in terms of seating, sightlines, additional points of sale for food and beverage while also offering a partnership for other retail and residential businesses.

Exactly what the Blue Jays would do --and where they would play -- while the new ballpark is constructed is uncertain. For now, for that matter, no one knows where the Jays might play next season, given border-crossing issues make it unlikely they can play their home games in Toronto. (The Blue Jays played their home games in nearby Buffalo in 2020 and might have to do the same in 2021 -- at least for the early portion of the schedule).

Replacing someplace that was built in 1989 seems patently absurd on the face of it. Surely, a 31-year-old facility can't be outmoded, can it?

But then you realize this: given the building boom in the sport and the need for franchises to have state-of-art play palaces that can generate maximum revenue streams, only six other in-use MLB ballparks are currently older than Rogers Centre (originally: SkyDome). They are: Fenway Park, Wrigley Field, Dodger Stadium, RingCentral Coliseum (Oakland), Angel Stadium and Kauffman Stadium.