Gordon Hayward's exit leads to one potential silver lining for Celtics

Make no mistake: The Celtics wanted Gordon Hayward back in free agency. They offered north of $100 million over four years to bring him back, a contract that was ultimately blown away by a Hornets team that had plenty of cash to spend and very few willing to take it (Montrezl Harrell turned down more money from Charlotte to sign with Lakers).

Yet, as the dust settles and negotiations continue between the Celtics, Hornets and a third team (Thunder or Knicks in all likelihood) about a three-team sign-and-trade scenario that would net Boston a trade exception, Danny Ainge and the rest of the Celtics front office are left to figure out the aftermath of Hayward’s departure. Losing the fourth-best player (or better) on a contender with no direct way of replacing their production or salary slot at the wing is far from ideal, even when said player has been snake bitten with injuries the past few seasons.

Yet, just like last offseason with Al Horford, the Celtics elected not to overpay in this instance and match the Hornets’ monster offer (Hayward may have walked anyway even if they did). The prospect of paying Hayward $30 million well into his 30s to be a fourth option on this team was enough in itself for Ainge to balk at matching that payday. However, there is another silver lining here for Boston when it comes to the present in Hayward’s departure.

With Hayward’s pricy $34.1-million salary for the 2020-21 season off the books, along with the trades of centers Enes Kanter and Vincent Poirier, Boston suddenly has some payroll flexibility in the present, currently sitting $18 million shy of the luxury tax.

Kemba Walker ($34.3 million)
Jaylen Brown ($23 million)
Marcus Smart ($13.4 million)
Jayson Tatum ($9.8 million)
Tristan Thompson ($9.2 million)
Daniel Theis ($5 million)
Romeo Langford ($3.6 million)
Aaron Nesmith ($3.5 million)
Grant Williams ($2.5 million)
Peyton Pritchard ($2 million)
Robert Williams ($2.0 million)
Jeff Teague ($1.6 million or BAE)
Carsen Edwards ($1.5 million)
Javonte Green ($1.5 million non-guaranteed)

Dead cap hits: Guerschon Yabusele ($1 million) and Demetrius Jackson ($100k)

Trade exceptions: $5 million (Kanter deal), $2.6 million (Poirier deal), ??? (Hayward deal)

Payroll: $114 million to 14 players

Luxury tax threshold: $132 million

Avoiding that luxury tax threat in the present allowed Boston to use the full mid-level exception ($9.2 million) instead of the taxpayer midlevel exception ($5.7 million) in order to land center Tristan Thompson, matching the offers he received from other suitors in Toronto among others.

However, the Celtics still remain well shy of the luxury tax threshold of $132 million after that signing and after adding Jeff Teague on a (veteran’s minimum) contract. There’s still another potential hole to fill on the wing but Boston could add another medium salaried player ($10-15 million) this year via trade and still steer clear of being a tax team.

Avoiding the tax this year could be very helpful in order for the Celtics to better maximize their contending window over the rest of the decade. Why? It allows them to reset their repeater tax clock.

The repeater tax is a stiff penalty that teams pay when they go over the luxury tax in a season and had also done so during three of their past four seasons. It’s something big market contending teams like Golden State, Philadelphia and the LA Clippers are going to have to start dealing with soon after putting together high-priced payrolls year after year, punishing them essentially for having the flexibility to spend so much more than smaller market teams.

The Celtics were not a luxury tax team last season but they were back in 2018-19. Therefore, if they had gone back into the tax by keeping Hayward this year, they would be set to be a repeater tax team by the end of 2022, right in the middle of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown’s prime.

Essentially, once Jayson Tatum’s max extension kicks in next year, it’s going to be hard for the Celtics to contend and not pay the luxury tax in a year anytime soon. They will have $102 million committed to four players starting in 2021-22 so their payroll will easily dwarf the luxury tax projection ($136 million in 2021-22) until further notice after filling out the remainder of the roster.

However, a way for the Celtics to avoid the repeater tax threat until far later in Tatum’s prime will be to avoid entering the tax this season, something that is now easily possible with Hayward’s money off the books. Staying out of the tax in back-to-back years for Boston essentially resets the repeater tax clock on them, meaning the earliest they could have to do deal with it would be for the 2024-25 season, far later than the 2022-23 season in the case that Hayward had stayed.

This delay should allow the Celtics brass to spend more freely in the next few years now in order to better maximize the roster around Tatum and company without worrying about payroll limitations.

Delaying the tax wasn’t enough incentive to let Hayward walk away obviously but it did factor into a walk-away price for the team. Assuming the team can salvage some kind of trade exception in the upcoming week with the Hornets, their long-term spending flexibility looks a lot better in Hayward’s departure.