Fact or fiction? Taking stock of the Myles Turner trade rumors amid Celtics offseason options

Myles Turner has been seemingly tied to the Boston Celtics in some form ever since he declared for the NBA Draft in 2015. The Celtics were rumored to be interested in trading up for the big man back in 2015 (they had the 16th overall pick) but Turner ended up going to the Pacers at No. 11.

Additional trade buzz started swirling against around a Turner trade in the last couple of seasons as the Pacers dealt with a logjam of talent at the center spot with Turner and Domantas Sabonis. It is a big frontline that hasn’t exactly fit well together for today’s NBA, so Turner’s name has been thrown around constantly for teams that could use a traditional ‘big man’ such as Boston.

That brings up to the present where it seems evident that Turner is on the trade block for an Indiana team that is looking to shake things up potentially after their second straight first-round sweep out of the postseason. Buzz has grown this week on social media as one unconfirmed report states that the Celtics have had discussions surrounding a Hayward for Turner framework of a deal. This all comes on the heels of the Celtics’ rumored interest in Jrue Holiday.

From a three-team standpoint, the pieces make a little bit of sense from afar on a potential Turner/Hayward/Holiday swap. The Pacers get to bring home the hometown boy in Hayward, the Pelicans get a lottery pick from Boston, and the Celtics land a couple of win-now upgrades in Holiday and Turner. More players would need to be added from Indiana and Boston’s side to make the salary matching work but this has been a popular trade proposal suggestion in recent days amid the rumblings.

However, I can safely say that Myles Turner and Jrue Holiday will not be heading to Boston together (barring more major roster upheaval for Boston) for a very big but simple reason: Money.

The finances for next year (2020-21) would not be a problem for Boston on this front with adding that duo with Jayson Tatum still on his rookie deal ($9.8 million). After that? The roster gets insanely expensive for the Celtics starting with the 2021-22 season. Take a look at these potential salary commitments if Holiday and Turner were both added to the roster with the team’s current core.

2021-22 payroll commitments

Kemba Walker: $36 million (2 years left)
Jayson Tatum: $33 million (estimated 5-year deal)
Jrue Holiday: $27 million (player option, expiring)
Jaylen Brown: $24 million (3 years left)
Myles Turner: $18 million (2 years left)
Marcus Smart: $14.3 million (expiring)

Total: $150 million committed to six players

That cap sheet would put the Celtics in pole position to have the most expensive roster in the NBA with next-to-no flexibility. The luxury tax line for next year is expected to land somewhere around $140 million according to early estimates so the Celtics would be paying tens of millions in luxury tax penalties to fill out the rest of the roster around this group. This would be an impressive top-6 to the roster but would it even be the best team in the Eastern Conference? That would be far from a sure thing even if some of Boston's younger talent on the bench develops more. Spending enough around the core to make the Celtics clear-cut contenders could happen but would be cost-prohibitive. Even with rookie and veteran minimum deals to fill out the rest of the roster, the Celtics would probably be over budget with their spending.

All of this is a long way of saying to not buy into the Hayward (with draft compensation) for Turner reports or the idea of the Celtics landing Holiday and Turner this offseason. I’ve made the case here for a while that Myles Turner isn’t a big enough upgrade over Daniel Theis to offset the difference in their salaries (Turner ($18 million) makes over three times as much as Theis ($5 million).

Instead, a more logical three-way swap involving Boston and Turner would be the Indiana big man heading to the Pelicans as part of the deal that lands Hayward for the Pacers and sends Holiday to Boston. However, it’s not a slam dunk that the Pelicans would want Turner’s somewhat bloated deal either over the next three years either. If they don’t, that type of trade arrangement would lead to a dead end unless the Pacers could find a team that wants Turner.

The bottom line here when trying to max sense of the rumor mill this offseason is not just thinking about the present for the Celtics but also the future. Danny Ainge is trying to set the Celtics up to contend around Tatum and company for the next several years, not just 2020-21. Adding one big name (like Holiday) this offseason is feasible under Boston’s long-term budget. Adding two big-priced names is not doable, even if Hayward is moved for them. More of Boston's core would have to go in that situation.

With the knowledge that the Celtics can only make a big swing here to take on one more high-priced player, the thinking here is that the C’s can do better than using it on Myles Turner, a 25-year-old who may or may not move the needle for the franchise. Whether or not a deal like that emerges remains to be seen.