Patriots

Bedard: Don’t completely rule out the Patriots upsetting the Ravens

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The last time the Patriots laid eyes on the Ravens, it was at the end of Baltimore's rather convincing 37-20 home victory on Nov. 3, 2019.

That game was strange. It's certainly true the Patriots had the ball and a chance to take the lead in the third quarter when Julian Edelman fumbled and it was returned for a touchdown, basically ending things. But it's also true the Patriots fell behind 17-0 in the game and the Ravens went on autopilot, giving the Patriots an opening to make it a lot more interesting.

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That was one of 12 consecutive wins the Ravens had to conclude a regular season at 14-2 before losing to the Titans in the divisional round — Baltimore's second-straight one-and-done postseason appearance.

Even with that disappointing end, that Ravens team was a juggernaut. Of their final nine regular-season games, just two were decided by seven points or less. They were by far the best DVOA team at FootballOutsiders.com — first in offense, fifth on defense.

If the Patriots saw that Ravens team again this Sunday night, I would give them a 0.0 percent chance to win that game.

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But these Ravens, right now in Week 10, are far from that squad. While a Patriots win is certainly still a longshot (Ravens are 7-point favorites), it wouldn't be completely shocking if they do find a way to win at Gillette Stadium.

After viewing the coaches film and crunching some numbers, here is what the Patriots can exploit, and what this matchup will come down to that still makes the chances of an upset minimal: