McAdam: Why the Red Sox shouldn't sign your favorite free agent

Not that you'd know it by any sort of activity or -- heaven forbid -- actual signings, but baseball's free agency period has actually begun.

Gentleman.....start your spreadsheets!

It will be a while before there's any news, but even before the pandemic, executives and agents did their tedious dance. And, now, with money tighter than ever and bidding sure to be more restrained, it could be Christmas before there's much to report.

In the meantime, you've probably got some ideas about how the Red Sox should spent some of their available cash.

I, on the other hand, am here to disabuse you or whatever notion you have in your head. (Some free agents may, in fact, be decent suggestions). But I digress.

Think of me as Manute Bol, gleefully swatting away your recommendations and providing the necessary evidence to buttress my arguments.

Ready?

D.J. LeMahieu, 2B
Why you might think it's a good idea: The Red Sox have a glaring hole at second and LeMahieu is an above-average defender. He's also an excellent offensive player who's seemingly getting better with age (OPS last two seasons: 893; 1.011). Plus, it stands to reason that taking a star player away from the Yankees is, by definition, a good thing.


Why it's actually not a good idea: Let's start with the last part: the Red Sox don't give one broken bat about making the Yankees miserable. That's not how the business works. If you start doing things solely because they antagonize your rival, you're in the wrong line of work. "Owning the Yanks'' isn't a sound strategy. Meanwhile, while LeMahieu is indeed a quality player, and by all accounts, a popular teammate, he's not what the Red Sox need. He's going to get a multi-year deal (at least two years, perhaps three) with an AAV likely north of $20 million. For a team that has Jeter Downs in the wings, that would be a poor use of resources while serving to block some inexpensive talent. Oh, and in case you needed additional convincing, LeMahieu was given a qualifying offer which means he would also cost the Red Sox their second-round draft pick.

Marcell Ozuna, OF
Why you might think it's a good idea: The Sox have a vacancy in the outfield, with Jackie Bradley Jr. heading to free agency. The free agent class is limited when it comes to center field options, so the Sox could slide Andrew Benintendi from left to center and sign Ozuna to play left field. Ozuna would give them a powerful middle-of-the-order bat and as a dead pull hitter, would pulverize The Wall. Remember that time he hit three homers in a single game at Fenway? That was awesome!
Why it's actually not a good idea: Ozuna is a brutal outfielder. That might have escaped notice when he sending balls to the Mass Pike last September, but the defensive metrics support that claim. He'll turn 30 next month and has a balky shoulder issue that already limits his throwing. And like LeMahieu, Ozuna is about to get paid. Again, the Sox could spend their money far more efficiently. And while Ozuna would be entertaining, taking mammoth cuts, making menacing gestures with the bat and generally being expressive, the Red Sox already tried this experiment -- does the name Hanley Ramirez ring a bell? Soon, Ozuna will become an expensive DH, which wouldn't be so bad except for the fact that the Red Sox already have one of those.

Trevor Bauer, SP
Why you might think it's a good idea: The Red Sox need starting pitching. Bauer is the best starter available on the market. Voila!
Why it's actually not a good idea: As I wrote last month, this move would make much more sense in a year or two, when the Red Sox will be -- presumably -- further down the rebuilding path. Bauer would be willing to take either a one-year deal or a multi-year deal, but now, neither scenario is a smart play for the Sox. A one-year deal would be a $30 million investment to lift them to 85 wins; a multi-year deal would tie them long-term to a huge contract for a pitcher in his 30's. In other words, the very predicament from which they're currently trying to extricate themselves. Plus, as a player given a qualifying offer....the draft pick thing.

Liam Hendriks, RP
Why you might think it's a good idea: The Red Sox need a closer. Hendriks is the best reliever available on the market. Ta-dah! Plus, having an Aussie around would be kind of cool.
Why it's actually not a good idea: Performance by relievers is notoriously fickle. Some years they're some combination of Rollie Fingers and Hoyt Wilhelm, and the next, they're entirely ordinary. Hendriks himself is the perfect case study. For his first eight seasons, he bounced around to four different teams and posted a cumulative 4.72 ERA with a 1.382 WHIP. Then, magically, he remade himself into a late-inning All-Star for the past two seasons. But who's to say that he won't again revert back to ordinary? How many multi-year deals for closers actually work out? And, last but not least: there's a glut of cheaper alternatives already available, a group that will only swell when the non-tenders flood the market early next month.