NBA Notebook: How a revamped 2020-21 regular season format impacts the Celtics

For weeks, the prevailing theory from league officials is there would be no more NBA basketball until at least January 2021 after the NBA Finals wrapped up in Orlando on October 11th.

However, with coronavirus outbreaks around the country reducing the odds of any fans being allowed in most NBA arenas for the foreseeable future, the league seems set on getting things going on a 2020-21 NBA season quickly, a slate that is likely to be played in mostly empty arenas for a large chunk of the year.

A league source confirmed to BostonSportsJournal.com that the NBA league office told the Board of Governors on Friday that a start date around Christmas is the new target for the league. Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com was first to report the news.

Nothing yet has been set in stone since any shift in the schedule has to be approved by the National Basketball Players Association. The league and players association are currently negotiating a number of issues, including adjustments to the salary cap and luxury tax in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic,  increased escrow holding for players next season and safety procedures for NBA players taking part in a season that is unlikely to be held in a bubble.

The two sides are hoping to come to terms on those arrangements along with a new-look NBA calendar in the next two weeks, which would in effect kick off offseason movement ahead of the NBA Draft on November 18th. While the players association could understandably push for a longer break in their offseason, the fact that there could be so much money on the line (up to $500 million) dependent on the league getting started in December, that should provide some added incentive for both sides to approve a quick offseason turnaround.

So what could the 2020-21 NBA season look like? Let’s take a look at some of the proposed ideas at play and their potential impact on the Celtics.

—Late December start date: Seeing that the Celtics were one of the last four teams playing during the bubble, they will only be looking at two full months of rest before training camp gets going at the beginning of December. Daniel Theis underwent minor knee surgery this week but is expected to be ready for the start of training camp. The same can’t be said for the rest of the injured players on the roster. Romeo Langford underwent surgery to repair a torn ligament back in September and Danny Ainge did not commit to him being healthy for the start of next season, an indication that his recovery and rehab could extend into 2021.

Elsewhere, Kemba Walker’s recovery from recurring knee pain during the second half of last season will come into greater focus. The two months off the Celtics get after they were eliminated in the East Finals will be far shorter than the nearly four months off the C’s got from the regular stoppage and that extended time off didn't cure Walker's knee woes. A longer period of rest would have probably been a welcome development for the All-Star point guard heading into next season and his offseason regimen now gains even greater importance. The same goes for Gordon Hayward after he played on a severely sprained ankle before it was fully healed.

--72 game regular season: The 10-game reduction from a normal regular season is being proposed to help the league compress the schedule and ensure they can get back on their normal October-June calendar in time for the 2021-22 season. 72 games will allow the league to meet their local and national TV contracts to ensure the maximum possible revenue for teams to collect on. The shorter schedule will likely benefit Boston on the whole since they are a team that figures to be top-heavy again on their roster in 2021. Walker and Hayward will likely see their minutes managed to some degree next year and that becomes easier when an 82-game grind is trimmed by 12 percent or so. The condensed timeframe of the season probably won’t fully eliminate the need for back-to-backs but there will certainly be fewer on the schedule in this format, along with likely a lengthy midseason break in place of an All-Star Game (an event that is expected to be canceled for 2021)

--Baseball style series schedule: This is perhaps the wrinkle that could impact the Celtics the most. With the league hoping to minimize travel as much as possible, there remains a possibility that a schedule will place a heavy emphasis on regional matchups and could feature teams playing the same team on consecutive nights, something that is normally a rarity in the NBA schedule.

League sources tell BostonSportsJournal.com that the NBA has stayed away from back-to-back games with the same opponents in past seasons since it doesn’t traditionally draw well from a ratings and attendance perspective in many markets. However, safety will likely supersede those concerns during the 2020-21 season, since a baseball style schedule will allow teams to avoid repeat road trips, instead fitting in several head-to-head games scheduled for one location in a two or three day span.

The possibility also exists that teams will face a schedule loaded with more divisional opponents than usual, a scenario that would put the Celtics in a tough spot given how talented the Atlantic Division is expected to be next year.

Boston, Brooklyn, Philadelphia and Toronto are all expected to be playoff teams, so 6-to-8 games against each of those teams (instead of the usual four) would put the Celtics to the test and reduce their odds of earning a top seed in the Esat. On the flip side, contenders such as the Bucks and Heat stand to benefit greatly from such an arrangement with each of those teams having three rebuilding squads in their respective divisions. How the NBA balances the lack of parity in certain divisions could be a point of contention among owners when it comes to creating a fair schedule for the 72-game slate that also minimizes travel and risk.

—Play-in tournament here to stay? The debut of play-in game for the No. 8 seed in the Orlando bubble worked quite nicely, creating some compelling games in the Western Conference until the very end of the seeding games in the bubble. The NBA could tweak the format somewhat to involve the No. 7 seed in a play-in scenario but league sources indicate there is strong momentum around bringing the idea of a play-in postseason spot for both conferences. That will also create a more level playing field for teams with a shortened regular-season schedule. The Celtics won’t be expected to be impacted directly by any play-in situation given their contender status, but they will have greater odds of facing teams with something to play for until the very end of the regular season grind with more potential playoff spots in play until the end of the year.

—Olympics in play? A December start to the season would open the door for the NBA Finals to wrap up by July, giving all US and international star players a chance to take part in the 2021 Tokyo Olympics (if they are they held) in August. After his breakout third season, Jayson Tatum would look to be a strong contender to secure a spot on the 2021 team after his strong play in the FIFA World Cup in 2019. If healthy, would expect Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown to get an invite to training camp as well with a chance to play their way into a roster spot.

Other NBA News and Notes

—Smart hire by the Pelicans in Stan Van Gundy this past week. Van Gundy had a very underwhelming stint as coach/team president in Detroit but he turned the Magic into a powerhouse last decade with a big man centerpiece in Dwight Howard and he still retains a nearly .600 winning percentage as a head coach despite his struggles in the Motor City. He will have the same chance to re-create his Orlando magic in New Orleans with Zion Williamson, with his focus strictly on the court instead of managing personnel.
—Pat Riley spoke for the first time since the Heat Finals appearance earlier this month and he signaled that bringing back some of his own core talent (Goran Dragic, Jae Crowder) will be a priority, likely on short-term deals in order to preserve future cap room for 2021. “It’s going to be a little bit dicey for us because of wanting that flexibility,” Riley said. “But if things can happen prior to that, I think we have to take care of our own, as much as we can.”
—Fun hire in Brooklyn with Amar’e Stoudemire reuniting with his former point guard Steve Nash as an assistant coach for Brooklyn.
—The 2020 NBA Draft will be held virtually on Wednesday, November 18th on ESPN. Adam Silver and Mark Tatum will appear live from ESPN studios in Bristol to announce the picks but there will be no players in person at the draft for the first time in recent history. Look for plenty of zoom conversations to be held with top prospects after selections are made.
—Do not throw any stock in reports of the Celtics monitoring the Andre Drummond situation in Cleveland. The big man has reportedly been in extension talks with the Cavs that have not gone well but there is no way he is opting out of his $27 million player option if he doesn’t secure a longer extension in Cleveland. The Celtics will have no interest in him at that price.
— The Celtics announced Daniel Theis had an arthroscopic procedure on his left knee to remove a loose body this week. It’s the same knee that Theis suffered a torn meniscus on back in 2018, which may help explain some of the dropoff in his performance during the Heat series.