MLB Notebook: Free agency on the horizon, but don't expect big splurges by Red Sox

Sometime soon -- unofficially, the day after the final World Series game; officially, five days after -- free agency will kick off, the most obvious sign that baseball's offseason has commenced.

Given the stagnant market of the last two seasons, there would already be uncertainty about what that will bring. Other than a handful of top stars at the top of the market, most players have found free agency to be an exercise in frustration.

Players in the game's middle class have found themselves settling for deals far less lucrative and far shorter in term.

Now, add in the pandemic and its significant impact on the game's finances, and it's all but impossible to offer a forecast.

What's known is this: money has never been tighter. And that has the potential to turn the market from the chill of the past two offseasons to one that is downright freezing.

It's possible that such a retreat will present plenty of bargains for teams interested in spending at all, and for a big-market team like the Red Sox, such a scenario potentially presents them with far more options. Even if the Sox are determined to hold the line on payroll, market forces could give them choices that would otherwise be beyond their reach.

Beyond the allure of free agency, it's widely expected that the field of players who are non-tendered will also be expanded, perhaps greatly. Teams staring at salary arbitration jumps may choose to walk away entirely from some players, further expanded the class of free agency, and, thanks to the laws of supply and demand, depress salaries further.

Non-tenders are more than a month away, however, so we'll stick to the more immediate field of traditional free agents for now.

The Red Sox needs -- as you might surmise from a team which finished last in its division and posted it worst won-loss percentage in more than 50 years -- are significant.

They include: center field, second base and pitching.

Also, pitching.

Did we mention pitching?

Here's a look at each category, position-by-position. In each case, we're aiming for realistic targets: players that fit the Red Sox now and who are --relatively speaking -- affordable. So, no mention of Trevor Bauer, the best starter available, or, say, Brad Hand, who has an option that the Indians are likely to pick up.

As noted before, the Red Sox aren't a piece or two away from becoming contenders. Their needs are deeper than that, though it's not unrealistic to expect that, with equal measures of good luck and good health, they could get back to respectability and be a .500 (or slightly better) team in 2021.

But having spent so much time -- and taking so much grief -- getting their payroll to a more manageable level, it would be nonsensical for them to dive back in with more long-term, guaranteed deals for players in their 30s.

Also, it would seem signing someone with compensation attached -- i.e. someone who rejects a qualifying offer. In addition to the heightened expectations of a big salary, those players would also cost the Sox their second-round pick and some international free agent pool money -- neither of which the team would be interested in surrendering. So, despite their obvious talents, no George Springer, or J.T. Realmuto or anyone like them for that matter.

So...



SECOND BASE: In Chaim Bloom's dizzying procession of waiver claim and minor deals, the Sox landed Christian Arroyo, who, in an admittedly small sample size (50 at-bats), displayed decent pop in his bat. But Arroyo is also 25 is already on his fourth organization, so it seems highly unlikely that the Sox will go into spring training conceding him the starting second base job.

It seems a given that Jose Peraza will be non-tendered for the second straight year. Michael Chavis hasn't shown that he can hit enough to be a regular, and Jonathan Arauz, who survived the season as a Rule 5 pick, clearly needs additional seasoning. Tzu-Wei Lin is too limited offensively.

Let's rule out D.J. LeMahieu from the start, as he'll command big money. Jonathan Villar has a poor season, but is only a year removed from hitting 24 hours and 40 steals. Jonathan Schoop is another second baseman with some power who might profile as exactly the kind of player who might be more affordable this offseason. Then there are multi-position options like Marwin Gonzalez and Josh Harrison, who could fill in at second while covering a number of other spots in both the infield and outfield.

CENTER FIELD: The return of Jackie Bradley Jr. can't be ruled out entirely, either on a limited multi-year deal, or less likely, with the Sox swallowing hard and extending a qualifying offer. But neither option is very economical, and with Jarren Duran waiting in the wings, the Sox might not want to block his promotion. It would seem far more likely that the Sox would be in the market for a more affordable one-year deal to someone like, oh, I don't know....Kevin Pillar? Pillar worked out well in his time here and a return might be a nice short-term solution. Other than that, the pickings are pretty slim here. Billy Hamilton and Jarod Dyson offer speed, but little else. Jake Marisnick is a plus-defender, but inconsistent offensively. If there's one intriguing name, it's Starling Marte, who can't be given a qualifying offer (having been traded during the season) and might be willing to take a short-term deal to rebuild his market value.

The more you examine the limited possibilities on the free agent market, the more you sense that this is a position the Sox might try to address through a trade, or potentially, a non-tender. Would someone like Lorenzo Cain (two years, $35 million remaining) make some sense if the budget-conscious Milwaukee Brewers took back a good chunk of his remaining salary?

STARTING PITCHERS: This is a thin group, with only Bauer, Masahiro Tanaka and Marcus Stroman qualifying as front-of-the-rotation pieces. The Sox expect that Chris Sale (May?) and Eduardo Rodriguez will both be back, healthy and contributing, and with Nathan Eovaldi and Martin Perez returning and the promise shown by Tanner Houck, they have the makings of a better-than-average rotation. But depth is needed, especially when you consider that both Sale and Rodriguez will have limits to their workload after not pitching at all in 2020.

What they would like, then, is a righthanded version of Perez -- someone they could sign for a year or two at not-outrageous money, who could be expected to provide innings while giving the team a chance to win most of its games.

Jake Odorizzi is, of course, well known to Bloom, having spent much of his career with the Rays. Odorizzi was limited to just four appearances this past year, so he'd have to accept a smaller guaranteed salary. But it was only 2019 when Odorizzi won 15 games and posted a 3.51 ERA. Mike Leake opted out of the 2020 season, but the previous two years, he averaged better than 190 innings. Leake has an option with Arizona, but at $18 million, it's certain to be declined.  Kevin Gausman bounced back nicely with the Giants last year, but it's worth noting that he's had his best seasons in the National League. Still, he's got experience pitching in the AL East after his time with the Orioles and can usually be counted on to take the ball on a regular basis. Taijuan Walker has never fully realized the expectations set for him early in his career when he was a first-round selection, but he was a nice addition to the Blue Jays at the deadline and could be a good depth piece.

The Sox could also take a chance on someone like Corey Kluber, who has missed most of the last two seasons. Bet you didn't know that Kluber actually spends his off-season in the Boston suburbs, where his wife is from. But while he would represent a nice buy-low proposition, he could hardly be counted on for 2021.

BULLPEN: The Boston bullpen features a number of established holdovers, including Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Josh Taylor, Darwinzon Hernandez and Ryan Weber plus a handful of pitchers who exhibited promise during 2020 (Austin Brice, Phillips Valdez) but it goes without saying that there's plenty of room for improvement -- and additions.

A number of evaluators believe Barnes is better suited for an eighth-inning high-leverage role, rather than closer, the job he assumed after the August trade of Brandon Workman. This free agent class doesn't offer much in the way an obvious high-profile closer -- Oakland's Liam Hendricks being one of the few exceptions -- and even if a number of them existed, it's doubtful the Sox would be splurging on one. For a team in the middle of a rebuild, using valuable resources on a closer seems like an indulgence.

Instead, look to how the Rays built their bullpen: by uncovering pitchers who were undervalued by pother organizations. Spending big dollars on relievers -- most of them in their 30s -- hardly seems like something in the Bloom playbook.

Which isn't to suggest that the Sox won't be active in looking to add to their stable of relievers. No doubt, there will be some on the market who can be brought in on bargain deals. Maybe in a crowded marketplace (and a depressed baseball economy), it could be worth investigating what it would take to sign someone with closing experience (Alex Colome? Trevor Rosenthal?) who might be had on the cheap.

But this would appear to be another area in which the Sox will likely seek out inexpensive options. As such, expect them to traffic in some non-tendered relievers who would be satisfied with make-good deals rather than the more competitive free agent marketplace, where multi-year guaranteed deals are the norm.

Another potential avenue: finding bargains among more accomplished relievers who have their pricey options rejected. Included in this group would be the likes of Steve Cishek (a Cape native), Brandon Kintzler and Darren O'Day. And given the growing importance of a diversified pen -- with different looks, stuff and deliveries --  the fact that both Cishek and O'Day are righthanded side-armers might prove them especially attractive.