Investigating the Pacers' trade interest in Gordon Hayward and potential fits for Celtics

The Gordon Hayward rumor mill has been steady for most of the offseason, but it picked up some steam on Thursday after Ian Begley of SNY reported that there are some people within the Pacers front office that have interest in the Celtics' veteran swingman.

The report insinuated nothing about what the Pacers would be willing to give up or even if the Celtics had any interest in dealing him, but the Indy rumor isn’t going anywhere anytime soon given Hayward’s hometown roots there and Indy’s need to shake things up this offseason.

So let’s take a closer look at this hypothetical deal to figure out if there is a potential match here between the two sides. There are some impressive names that the Pacers could have to offer if they make a run at Hayward, but which ones would be on the table? And would they provide an upgrade for the C’s and be retainable? Let’s dig deeper for some answers.

Trade structure

Any deal involving Hayward has to start first with salary matching. Hayward is one of the highest-paid players in the league if he exercises his player option next year ($34.1 million), so some big money players have to be coming back in any hypothetical deal.

The Pacers have a few appealing names on this front, but a good number of them wouldn’t be available for one year of Hayward. Malcolm Brogdon is on that list after signing a four-year deal last offseason for $84 million. He’s still a good value contract with three years left and isn’t going to be on the table for Hayward. The same can be said for All-Star Domantas Sabonis (four years left on deal) once his extension kicks in next season. Those guys aren't untouchable but they aren't available for a year of Hayward.

With those two guys assumed to be off the table, that leaves us with just a couple of big names left that would be needed to make a deal work. The Pacers would have to send out about $27.5 million in salary to make any trade work under NBA salary cap rules for Hayward in order to match salaries.

The next two biggest salaries on the Pacers roster after Brogdon and Sabonis are Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner, two guys that are likely to be shopped heavily this offseason by the Pacers for different reasons. So would either make sense for Boston in a deal for Hayward? Let’s take a closer look at both potential fits.

Option 1 as centerpiece

Victor Oladipo ($21 million, one year remaining)
Height: 6-4
Age: 28
Bubble stats: 16 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 2.8 apg, 40% FG, 34.3% 3pt (6 games)
Overview: This is the flashy name for most fans since Oladipo is a two-time All-Star and in his late 20s, but those honors came before he went down with a serious knee injury in 2019. Oladipo was out for 12 months rehabbing, returning to the floor in January and looking understandably rusty before the coronavirus pandemic put a halt to the season.

However, after four more months of recovery time, he was still a far cry from his All-Star self in the Orlando bubble despite being 18 months into his recovery. His efficiency numbers were way down, his turnover numbers were way up and other aspects of his game (rebounding, assist rate) also took a big hit. Some of that has to do with the Pacers personnel (Brogdon was the primary ballhandler) but Oladipo is no sure thing to recover to his former self after such a major injury. The version we saw of Oladipo in the bubble is far worse than a healthy Hayward on a variety of fronts (shooting, rebounding, turnover rate). If the Celtics were to make this type of deal, they would have to gamble on Oladipo making a full recovery to get a higher ceiling than a healthy Hayward.

The problem with that for Boston is that even if he does return to that level, there’s a good chance he walks in free agency after his contract expires in 2021. He’s a ball-dominant player who would be fighting to be a second or third option in Boston. More importantly, the Celtics simply wouldn’t have the money to give him what he wants if he puts up strong numbers in 2020-21. With over $90 million tied up in Tatum/Brown/Walker starting in 2021-22, paying Oladipo close to max money just wouldn’t be feasible (unless you are moving one of those other guys).

When you consider that flight risk with the fact that Oladipo would make a very small backcourt next to Kemba Walker in the interim, it’s hard to sell me on this move making any sense for the Celtics in the short or long term. There are fit issues for him offensively next to Boston’s top three players and the version we saw of Oladipo last year doesn’t make Boston any better in place of Hayward. The people that are calling for him over Hayward are people who haven’t seen him play much after his surgery. There’s a chance he bounces back two years removed from his knee issues, but gambling on that happening during a one-year rental in Boston does not feel like a winning bet.

If the Pacers were willing to add an additional sweetener in the form of Aaron Holiday and Doug McDermott, that could change the calculus here. Without them, there’s not enough incentive to give up on Hayward just to go all-in on a player in Oladipo with plenty of question marks with his play and health.

Option 2 as centerpiece

Myles Turner ($18 million per year, three years remaining)
Height: 6-11
Age: 24
Stats: 12.2 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.2 apg, 45.7% FG, 34% 3pt
Overview: The Turner to Celtics trade rumors feel as old as time at this point. Last offseason, some people were wondering if C’s should offer Brown for Turner, a suggestion that looks foolish now in hindsight after Brown’s big bounce-back year in 2020.

There’s no denying the Celtics could use an upgrade at the center position in certain matchups over Daniel Theis and company. The problem for them is that Turner isn’t a guy who will help a lot on that front over the options they currently have.

The fifth-year center has a lot of things going for him on paper. He’s one of the league’s best rim protectors (2.1 blocks per game), he’s entering his prime at age 24 and he’s got a reasonable contract for the next three seasons, which would be a requirement of dealing Hayward somewhere (getting some cost control back for the payroll).

The problem for the Celtics is that Turner really isn’t an answer to their center issues in the postseason. Turner has been routinely a liability defensively as he matches up against more formidable options in the playoffs. He has more size to handle a guy like Bam Adebayo but his lack of mobility is a huge concern in 1-on-1 face-up situations. Look no further than the first round this postseason as he faced Adebayo (Miami swept the Pacers).





Offensively, Turner is an average 3-point shooter but isn’t one that defenses respect in the postseason with his 34 percent career mark from 3-point range. Opponents will dare him to shoot just like they did with Theis, so he won’t solve that spacing issue at center when the C’s want to maximum their offense.

He also lacks the bulk to handle bigger centers in the post like Joel Embiid or Nikola Jokic. He moves around slowly on the floor like those guys as a traditional big but isn’t an answer for them from a strength standpoint. His lack of mobility also makes him a major liability guarding the 3-point line and switching onto shooters, something Brad Stevens likes to emphasize with his defenses, especially in late-game situations.

Turner’s money is reasonable, but also doesn't align with the C's recent investments at the center spot. He’s making $18 million for each of the next three seasons and that’s equal to the total of Boston’s entire investment at center last season among four guys. Committing bigger money to center means spending less elsewhere and Turner isn’t the type of player that is going to put this team over the top as a fourth option in place of Hayward. Daniel Theis and Robert Williams should be able to give the Celtics roughly 90 percent of what Turner can for less than half the price in salary.

Just like with Oladipo, the Pacers could try to sweeten the pot here with other appealing trade chips on top of Turner. Adding Holiday or TJ Warren would certainly bridge the gap, but it’s hard to envision Indiana giving up that much value for one year of Hayward at big money. Would McDermott and Turner be enough for Hayward? I’d vote Hayward still gives the C’s more upside.

The bottom line here for Boston is that neither Turner or Oladipo are necessarily long-term answers to any of the C’s problems with their current deals. If Danny Ainge is still hopeful of retaining Hayward beyond next season at a reasonable price, he has a better chance of providing better bang for the buck on a reduced salary for the next few years than Oladipo would in Boston for a single year or Turner for a few.

Indy could try to cobble together a more convincing offer without either Turner or Oladipo (a combination of TJ Warren, Jeremy Lamb (coming off torn ACL), Doug McDermott, Aaron Holiday) to fill the necessary salary demands to make the money match, but they would likely balk on including Warren with all those pieces after his breakout in the Orlando bubble for Hayward. If the Pacers really want Hayward, they will have the option of waiting until he’s a free agent in 2021 as well to make a run at him, making the odds of a trade overpay highly unlikely.

The Celtics should continue to do their due diligence with Hayward trade possibilities if they think he could walk away after this upcoming season. However, there are better trade fits out there than what the Pacers are likely to be dangling over the next few weeks.