McAdam: Would giving a qualifying offer to Jackie Bradley Jr. make sense for the Red Sox?

The Red Sox have but one significant free-agent-to-be on their roster this fall: Jackie Bradley Jr. (Collin McHugh is also a free agent, but given his opt-out and his ongoing recovery from an arm issue, his status is uncertain).

As is the case with any pending free agent, the Red Sox will have the option of offering Bradley a qualifying offer within five days after the conclusion of the World Series. If a player accepts, he's effectively re-signed for the following season. If he declines, the player has compensation attached to him, resulting in a draft pick for his former team should he sign elsewhere. Free agents have 10 days to make their decision.

This year, the qualifying offer will be worth more than ever: $18.9 million. (The figure is arrived at annually by determining the average of the game's top 125 -- or top one-fifth -- highest-paid players).

At first blush, the notion of giving Bradley an almost $8 million raise -- even coming after arguably his best offensive season -- would seem absurd. Bradley's offensive inconsistencies are well-documented. And qualifying offers are typically reserved for perennial All-Stars. Bradley has been an All-Star just once in his first full six seasons.

Moreover, there were some in the Red Sox organization who argued for Bradley to be non-tendered last winter, thus avoiding having to pay him $11 million (pre pro-rata) salary for 2020. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom pushed back -- hard -- against that position.

But there is indeed a case to be made for offering Bradley the qualifying offer.



1. They lack any other options internally.

If Bradley were to leave, the Red Sox would be without an experienced centerfielder. Or, at the very least, they would be creating a hole at another spot in the outfield. If the Sox, for instance, shifted Alex Verdugo to center, they would need to find someone to handle right, which in Fenway, is even more demanding than center. Verdugo has played 62 games in center in his career (all but one of those with the Dodgers) and there's little doubt he could handle the assignment. But again, they would still need to replace Verdugo in right field.

It makes little sense to fill one positional need and open another, especially if that might be a tougher need to address.

To a lesser extent, the Sox could shift Andrew Benintendi from left to center. Benintendi isn't as good an outfielder as Verdugo, though he's a better-than-average defender and has played some center (55 career starts). As with Verdugo, however, that would create a giant void in left.

To be filled by whom? Michael Chavis played there in September, and with the exception of one game, filled in admirably. Yairo Munoz showed himself to be athletic in the outfield, though he hasn't demonstrated that he could be an everyday player. Or, the Sox could find a lefty bat to platoon with either Chavis or Munoz.

Overall, those aren't great options and whichever one they chose, the Sox would be potentially weakening themselves at two outfield spots.

2. It would buy them time.

The Red Sox believe Jarren Duran to be their center fielder of the future. But by most accounts, they want him to have additional development time at the start of 2021. Duran reconfigured his swing last year and used it to great effect at the Alternate Training Site, getting much more loft and distance on balls. It would be useful to see him first transfer that to game action in 2021 before dropping into a major league lineup.

Bringing Bradley back for one year would give Duran the luxury of spending the first half of 2021 at Worcester, getting more comfortable with his offensive approach, and also, to the outfield, a position he didn't play until 2018. Most evaluators believe Duran has the speed, athleticism and instincts to handle center, but a little more time wouldn't hurt.

3. It's only money.

To state the obvious: giving Bradley $18.9 million would be a significant overpay. But it would only be for one season, and that would likely be preferable to committing to Bradley on a free-agent deal. The Sox could always offer Bradley a three-year deal for $30 million. But that would result in Duran -- who, of course, could be paid little more than the major league minimum for his first couple of seasons -- being blocked in center.

The Sox aren't about to bump up against the 2021 CBT threshold of $210 million anyway. The Red Sox have about $122.5 committed on existing major league contracts and another $25-30 million likely in salary arbitration cases, giving them plenty of room to overspend on this one, short-term deal.

4. There's no guarantee he'd accept.

Keep in mind that Bradley is represented by Scott Boras, who is usually pretty shrewd when it comes to assessing the market. Perhaps Boras will advise Bradley that as the second-best free-agent centerfielder (behind Houston's George Springer), he could get himself a multiple-year deal that, while not offering him in AAV, would nonetheless be more lucrative overall.

Or maybe Bradley is determined to play elsewhere. Maybe he doesn't wish to return to Boston. Or maybe he simply wants the security of a long-term deal.

In which case, the Red Sox would add another valuable draft pick. As a team that didn't receive revenue sharing in 2020 (or ever, for that matter), the Red Sox would be given a pick in Competitive Balance Round B -- 0r, somewhere between the 65th and 72nd pick in next July's amateur draft.

That's a significant pick for a team looking to stockpile prospect inventory, and particularly for one which recently was stripped of its second-round pick last summer.