McAdam: Why Trevor Bauer doesn't make much sense - this year - for Red Sox

On Sunday, Trevor Bauer set social media ablaze with a bit of expert trolling:

https://twitter.com/BauerOutage/status/1312869549067231232?s=20

It would seem that Bauer was just having some fun at fans' expense. While Bauer is indeed eligible for free agency this winter, players aren't actually free agents until after the World Series. What's more, they're not allowed to talk to clubs other than their present teams until five days after the Series.

So if Bauer was in Boston, it was not to meet with the Red Sox.

Of course, Bauer's trolling piqued everyone's interest -- achieving exactly what it was designed to achieve.

Make no mistake -- the likely 2020 National League Cy Young Award winner (5-4, 1.73 ERA; 0.79 WHIP; 12.3 K per 9IP) is easily the best available pitcher in a thin free agent market.

And after a disastrous 2020 in which their starters compiled a 5.58 ERA, second-worst in the American League, starting pitching is the Red Sox' most obvious need.

But that ignores two huge factors that all but rule out Bauer as a good fit for the Red Sox.



The first is the qualifying offer that undoubtedly will be attached to him.

While the exact figure for this hasn't been determined, the expectation is that it will be somewhere between $17-18 million. And because Bauer will certainly earn more than that on the open market, the Cincinnati Reds won't hesitate to tag him with that qualifying offer.

If he accepts -- which he won't -- then the Reds get Bauer back at about the same price they paid him ($17.5 million) last season. Even for a small-market team, that's an easy outlay to justify.

Again, however, Bauer will that down and see what he can make on the open market. But because he was given the qualifying offer, his signing will come with an additional cost: the team signing Bauer will also have to forfeit a top draft pick.

In the case of the Red Sox, this would translate into a loss of their second-highest draft pick. and $500,000 in international bonus pool money. As it currently stands, the Red Sox will select fourth overall -- their highest slot since 1967 -- in next July's draft pick. That pick won't be affected.

But the Sox would lose their second-round pick, which would figure to be somewhere between the 35-40th pick, along with a half million in international money. That's a significant cost for a team aiming to rebuild its minor league system through the draft and international signings, especially when you consider that the Sox were stripped of their second-round like last year as a penalty for sign-stealing in the 2018 season.

You might be tempted to rationalize: Well, a second-round pick and some international pool money isn't much of a price to pay for getting one of the handful of best starters in the game for the next five or six years.

But remember: Bauer is intent on maximizing his value going forward by signing only one-year deals.

So, re-do the equation now: the 40th (or so) best amateur player in the country and $500,000 in international bonus money in exchange for one year of Bauer? He's good, but he's not that good.

If the Red Sox are going to keep squandering changes to build their prospect inventory, it's got to be for a longer payoff. And one year ain't it.

Moreover, even the addition of Bauer wouldn't guarantee the Red Sox anything for 2021. Sure, a rotation headed by Bauer, Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez and Tanner Houck, to be supplemented eventually by the return of Chris Sale, would make the Red Sox far more formidable.

But even with the improvement to the rotation that Bauer would surely bring, the Red Sox still might not be good enough to win a pennant. Sure, they might be more competitive within their own division, and if things break right health-wise, could even overtake the Yankees and Rays for the division.

But this is a team that is more than one player away from being a World Series contender. Bauer would make far more sense for an already quality team that hasn't yet gotten over the postseason hump -- the Minnesota Twins, say, or perhaps the Atlanta Braves.

The Sox have other needs. They could have a hole in center field to fill. There's a vacancy at second base. They surely need back-end bullpen reinforcements.

In short, while signing Bauer would rev up interest (and possibly ticket sale, if tickets are actually going to be sold), it would be a case of poor timing.

But given that Bauer intends to be back on the open market after the 2021 season, perhaps it's a question that might be worth revisiting a year from now.