McAdam: As off-season looms, pandemic clouds Red Sox spending path

Having successfully re-set their luxury tax rate by cutting payroll spending while Major League Baseball managed to complete its shortened season, the Red Sox accomplished the first step toward having a more robust payroll to help lead the team back into contention.

But with the free-agent market set to open in a little more than a month, the club is still uncertain of how much money with which it has to work.

The fallout from the pandemic -- which led to a 60-game season, played without paying customers -- is still being felt. Some MLB franchises expected revenue losses of nine figures. Worse, with the fear that the coronavirus may worsen over the winter, it's impossible to predict if fans will be allowed for at least the start of the 2021 season, making a projection of future resources exceedingly difficult.

"As it relates to the budget for next year and beyond, the obvious impacts of the pandemic has been felt in every industry,'' said team president and CEO Sam Kennedy, "and baseball is no exception. I think the good news for Red Sox fans is that John Henry and Tom Werner will take a long-term view with respect to the COVID era. Will it have an impact on our budget? Yes, of course it will, because of the devastating impact it's had on our revenues this year. And obviously next year is uncertain.

"That said, I don't know what the outlook for 2021 looks like yet with respect to the virus. As that becomes clear, we'll be able to act in real-time and make decisions. (But) there is an organizational-wide commitment, from the top down, to this goal and mission of building a team that is consistent, that is competitive and gets us back to where we belong, which is atop the American League East.''

The issue, however, may well be one of timing.



Traditionally, baseball teams build rosters - and spend money -- in November and December. But with no firm answers by then on how the pandemic may look in another six month's time, projecting how much of an outlay can be made will be a real challenge.

"Hopefully, we're going to be able to have fans back in the stands next year, or some portion of our fans to start. We'll see how that goes,'' Kennedy said. "But again, there's a long-term view. We know we're going to withstand operating losses and we're prepared and planning for that. I think you'll see the Red Sox continue to invest in our Baseball Operations the way we have the last 20 years.''

While teams know that they have to slash spending in the wake of recent and anticipated losses, that may be countered by the amount free agents can command. And here, too, some projection may be necessary. The market has been depressed the last two winters for all but the very elite players, and there's bound to be an even bigger financial reckoning in the coming months.

That makes trying to figure out where the market will be for 2020-21 offseason even trickier.

"It's really one of the big questions this offseason for all 30 clubs,'' said chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, "and I think it starts with, over the course of the next month, as we prepare for the meat of the offseason, to make sure (first) that we have all of our information together and have a pretty good idea of how we would assess players so we can make quick decisions.

"And then, it's just a matter of different scenarios and adjusting what the market could yield. I think we can that even though we have expectations for what it will be, every offseason there are surprises...I think it's dangerous to say at the beginning of a winter that we know what it's going to look like; we usually end up being wrong.''

As the Red Sox continue to rebuild, they're mindful of wild swings of performance by the team over the last decade. Since 2012, the franchise has experienced a boom-or-bust pattern -- finishing last four times, while also qualifying for the postseason four times and winning World Series.

In other words, all-or-nothing. That sort of wild variance is unusual for big market teams and the Sox seek to find a way to ensure that on the years in which they drop off some, they don't sink to the bottom.

"One thing that we have been lacking is our consistency with our competitiveness,'' said Kennedy. "I think it's important to acknowledge that and that is clearly something that we're working toward. I can't point my finger on one reason or two reasons why we've had these really high highs and then low lows. It's a very difficult sport. It's a very difficult sport to understand. We do not have all the answers.

"As we go forward, we are looking to bring that consistency to the table and be knocking on the door of a division championship, and a pennant and ultimately a World Series with greater regularity and greater frequency.''