If you just looked at the stats, you'd think Derek Carr was one of best quarterbacks in the league.
I mean, he's completing 73.5 percent of this passes with four touchdowns against zero interceptions for a passer rating of 115.0. Most importantly, the Raiders are 2-0. That's good stuff.
And the truth is, Carr has played well in these games. And he's played mostly good football over the past two seasons, once he had a better handle on Jon Gruden's scheme. And Carr probably would have performed better if he had better receivers last season. Even this season, they're mostly young (rookies Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards), new (Nelson Agholor) or just not that good (Zay Jones).
But there's never really been a question about Carr early in seasons when the pressure is off. Or against bad pass defenses (opener vs. Carolina). Or against offenses that can't pull away due to injuries (Saints).
The issue with Carr has always been, will he make the big plays in the biggest spots needed in the biggest games? This is where he has come up short in his career, especially last season when a QB with the clutch gene could have helped the Raiders from falling out of playoff contention with a four-game losing streak.
Even Gruden voiced his frustration indirectly at Carr, as the film repeatedly showed chances Carr could have taken to put the team over the top and didn't.
“I’m getting old now. I wanna let it fly,” Gruden told Chargers reporters last year. “… I want big plays. I want excitement. These bubble screens and check downs only go so far with me.
“I want to be aggressive and I want to try to make some big plays. Especially if you’ve got the offensive line and supporting cast to back it up.”
That was the coach calling out the quarterback for not having the guts of a burglar. And, look, Carr is not an average QB. He will make plays in every game that are impressive. But last season, he failed to make the plays that Gruden schemed up for him to push the Raiders forward. Gruden's frustration was warranted.
The question is, has that changed in the first two games? Will the Carr that takes the field at Gillette Stadium, challenge the likes of Stephon Gilmore, JC Jackson and Devin McCourty down the field when the Raiders need it most?
Some of the evidence says he will not, that Carr is the same risk-averse QB he showed last season.
This play late in the first half, with the Raiders trailing 10-0, was a perfect example of some of the frustration that has to drive Gruden — who emerged from this hiatus as one of the best schemers and playcallers in the game — crazy at times.
Situation: 2-10-NO 46 (2:24) (Shotgun) D.Carr sacked at LV 49 for -5 yards (T.Hendrickson).
Penalty on LV-R.Incognito, Offensive Holding, declined.
Here's the play and analysis:
The play, either to the boundary after the pumpfake or on the post, was there for a touchdown. Was it blocked properly? No, but a good quarterback senses the pocket, is aware of Cam Jordan coming after him and slides a bit to make the play. There was no reason for Carr not to throw to either of those options. And the only reason Richie Incognito was flagged for holding was because Carr held the ball forever.
If Carr continues to be this cautious — and there are still multiple examples in every game of Carr taking the checkdown instead of throwing into a tight window — then he's going to have a tough time against a Patriots defense that will only give him tight windows.
Sunday's game is a referendum on Carr. If he's going to truly shed his game-manager persona, he'll show it against the Patriots.
OTHER THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT THE RAIDERS
When the Raiders are going their best, it is through stellar running back Josh Jacobs and a terrific offensive line. But the line is no longer healthy. LT Kolten Miller is solid, center Rodney Hudson is one of the best in the game and RG Rodney Hudson is solid. But losing LG Richie Incognito to IR and RT Trent Brown (likely out with a calf), makes this an entirely different unit that can be attacked. The tight ends also don't block that well.
Defensively, the Raiders are severely limited. The DTs are big but not all that effective. DE Maxx Crosby is outstanding and must be accounted for. If Nicholas Morrow is on the field, he should be attacked and is terrible in pass coverage. Safety Jonathan Abrams is a good player, but the other safety, Erik Harris is a liability in coverage and was targeted by the Chiefs repeatedly last season.
Paul Guenther's scheme is unimaginative and relies on soft coverage where communication breakdowns occur. The Patriots might have some issues running the ball at times, but Cam Newton shouldn't have any trouble dialing up some big pass plays.
The Patriots' gameplan should be about the same: Grab a lead to stay balanced on offense, stop Jacobs and make Carr have to make plays down the field to beat you. Often, he'll just take the checkdown.
PATRIOTS OPTIONS BEYOND DAVID ANDREWS?
So this thumb injury for David Andrews does not look good. After not taking part in practice today, there are a lot of questions about whether or not he'll be able to snap the ball on Sunday.
A day after ending up on the injury report with a hand issue, #Patriots center David Andrews is back on the field today with a cast on his hand. pic.twitter.com/q78BAmSGMG
— Raul Martinez (@RaulNBCBoston) September 24, 2020
As opposed to a year ago when the rushing attack took a step back swapping the athletic Andrews for the slower Ted Karras, the Patriots should be in a better situation this year, at least physically.
Hjalte Froholdt had a terrific training camp and will likely get the call should Andrews not be able to go. Froholdt is closer to the athlete Andrews is, but not a total replacement.
And, obviously, there are going to be a few drawbacks going from a seasoned veteran and captain to a player making his first NFL start, but it should be manageable with Joe Thuney and Shaq Mason on either side.
"I think the main thing is you just form that bond," Mason told reporters about possibly not playing with Andrews. "But I think we do a good job of preparing everyone, if anybody drops down, everybody can be prepared for whenever their number's called.
"Hjalte comes in each and every day, works hard. He's a young guy, so he's very inquisitive and always asking us questions trying to just better his knowledge and better his game."