Adding a legitimate, top-six talent up front to spark Boston's top-heavy 5v5 offense might stand at the forefront when it comes to Don Sweeney's ambitious offseason checklist, but the left side of Boston's D corps could look drastically different by the time the next NHL season commences in ... December? January? Well, some point in the next few months, hopefully.
With both Torey Krug and Zdeno Chara set to enter free agency next month, Boston's top brass could be on the lookout for legitimate top-four talent on the trade market — especially with Krug likely set to cash in with a major deal as one of the top targets on the market. Even if Chara does return for his 15th season in a black and gold sweater, it's pretty evident that the captain should no longer be utilized as a top-pairing option that regularly logs 20+ minutes a night.
Yes, a playmaking weapon like Matt Grzelcyk should thrive in a larger role with this revamped D corps, but if Boston really wants to put together another extended postseason run next year, the B's are going to need more dependable, established talent regularly logging minutes on the blue line.
As such, it shouldn't come as much of a surprise that the Bruins are reportedly keeping tabs on a couple of top-flight defensemen, including Arizona Coyotes captain Oliver Ekman-Larsson.
The Bruins are one of three clubs (along with the Oilers and Flames) that have reportedly "checked in on" the 29-year-old defenseman, per Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman, although the Swede will almost certainly draw more suitors if the Coyotes are committed about moving him this fall.
Ekman-Larsson certainly fits the mold as a "splash" move for Boston, with the left-shot veteran capable of logging heavy minutes next to either Charlie McAvoy or Brandon Carlo next season if Krug does indeed sign elsewhere. Arizona's captain does it all for his club — having averaged 23:01 of ice time in 2019-20, including an average of 2:40 of power-play ice time and 2:10 of shorthanded TOI.
The 6-foot-2, 200-pound defenseman has been about as consistent as they come since getting drafted sixth overall in the 2009 NHL Draft, recording at least 40 points in five of his last seven seasons — closing out a shortened 2019-20 campaign with 30 points over 66 games. Ekman-Larsson has been a top-10 finalist for the Norris Trophy twice in his career, tallying 20+ goals twice in his 10 total years with the 'Yotes.
Based on the baseline numbers, adding a dynamic, veteran presence to a B's D corps potentially set to soldier on without Krug seems like a logical move for Sweeney and Co., so long as the price fits within what the Bruins are willing to wager. But even if the terms for an Ekman-Larsson deal could be mapped out, should Boston actually pull the trigger on such a move?
Fair to say, there are a lot of factors to weigh in such a move — even beyond the obvious elements such as Ekman-Larsson's value and a potential vacancy on Boston's blue line.
The obvious one? Boston would be taking on a biiiiiiiiig contract if they bring Ekman-Larsson aboard — as the defenseman just wrapped up the first season of an eight-year contract that pays him $8.25 million annually through 2027. That's likely more than what Krug will command on the open market — and $1 million more than what Boston's highest-paid player (David Krejci) will earn next season. Sheesh.
It shouldn't come as much of a surprise that Arizona is looking to free up cash and acquire assets. While moving Ekman-Larsson's contract could provide more capital for the Coyotes to re-sign Taylor Hall, the franchise might just need to cut payroll in order to account for a few more pressing issues, like ... uh, paying the owner and manager of their arena.
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Add in the fact that the Coyotes lost both a 2020 second-round pick and a 2021 first-round pick for violating the league's combine testing policy — along with the arrival of a new GM in Bill Armstrong — and there could some significant upheaval taking place in Glendale this offseason.
Of course, even if Ekman-Larsson is a legitimate first or second-pairing defenseman and should be for the next couple of years at least, there's an awful lot of risk trading for a player that is expected to cost you $8.25 million in cap space through his age-35 season — especially in these trying times in which the cap ceiling could remain stagnant for years.
Boston could opt to take on the full contract if they really don't want to give up a package of blue-chip players, prospects or picks to Arizona, but that seems unfeasible — especially if the B's still plan on re-upping RFAs like Matt Grzelcyk and Jake DeBrusk and remaining active on the free-agent front / trade market.
The only way a deal like this realistically works out between Boston and Arizona would be if the Coyotes offered to retain some salary in the trade, cutting OEL's annual cap hit down to around $7 million (or lower, if Boston wants to fork over other assets as well).
Boston could also get creative in a larger deal, potentially including John Moore and the remaining three years and $2.75 million annual cap hit he's hitting the B's with. (And of course, regardless of how much cash is retained, Boston is still going to have to fork over quite a bit to get Arizona to bite on a trade).
Given the headaches that would come with cramming this contract onto the books going forward — along with the clear risk that comes with bringing aboard a 29-year-old defenseman that's close to an unknown in Bruce Cassidy's system — you'd think Boston would likely pass, given the amount of commitment that would come with a deal like that.
Hell, even if Arizona eats some of that money and Ekman-Larsson heads to Boston on a $7 million AAV contract, you could make the case that Boston might just be more comfortable bringing back Krug — who at least Boston knows what it has with the power-play QB. (I don't think they end up doing this, but it seems more rational than rolling the dice on a guy with an already hefty contract).
Now, Ekman-Larsson is far from a carbon copy of Krug, with the larger blueliner not often sheltered with favorable starts in order to mask some defensive deficiencies. (71.04% of Krug's faceoffs during 5v5 play this season came in the offensive zone, while just 47.40% of OEL's faceoffs came in the same side of the ice).
Despite handling tougher defensive assignments, Ekman-Larsson was cut from the same cloth with Krug when it came to 5v5 offense — an area that Boston is desperately looking for a lift in next year, whether it be up front or on the blue line.
Here are a few noteworthy metrics that we've singled out — including which player had the edge between Ekman-Larsson and Krug:
5v5 total points per 60 minutes: Ekman-Larsson (1.1) >>> Krug (1.03)
5v5 shots per 60 minutes: Krug (5.71) >>> Ekman-Larsson (5.3)
5v5 individual shot attempts per 60 minutes: Krug (11.99) >>> Ekman-Larsson (11.07)
5v5 individual scoring chances per 60 minutes: Krug (3.2) >>> Ekman-Larsson (3.1)
5v5 individual scoring chances per 60 minutes: Ekman-Larsson (0.58) >>> Krug (0.45)
5v5 rebounds created per 60 minutes: Ekman-Larsson (0.68) >>> Krug (0.13)
Even strength takeaways per 60 minutes: Krug (1.26) >>> Ekman-Larsson (0.7)
Even strength hits per 60 minutes: Ekman-Larsson (5.74) >>> Krug (2.04)
So, overall, pretty close when it comes to a lot of offensive metrics — although who knows what happens when if you finally bail Ekman-Larsson out of a system in Arizona that seems to sap even the most talented playmakers of their projected production. Still, it's tough to ignore what has been a downward trend for Ekman-Larsson over the last few seasons in the desert, with a rather anemic 'Yotes offense actually faring slightly better when their captain was off the ice this season.
(For reference on Micah Blake McCurdy’s individual impact charts via Hockey Viz — On the offensive side of things, you’d want to see a player providing positive numbers — with the red blobs signifying where the team is generating a majority of their shots from whenever said player is on the ice. Defensively, negative numbers are a sign that a team is snuffing out opposing scoring chances whenever said player is on the ice. As such, the blue blobs represent where the opposition’s shots aren’t regularly coming from. As seen above, the Coyotes are generating a higher volume of shots when Ekman-Larsson is actually off the ice).
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, Sean Tierney and HockeyViz.