McAdam: Red Sox would be wise to make extending Rafael Devers a top priority this offseason

Having dealt off a number of their own potential free agents at last month's trade (Brandon Workman, Kevin Pillar, Josh Osich), the Red Sox, other than Jackie Bradley Jr., don't have a lot of internal contractual decisions.

Beyond Bradley, they have to decide whether to exercise the 2021 option for starter Martin Perez - itself, pretty much a no-brainer given Perez's performance (4.33 ERA, 109 ERA+ ) and the relative affordability of the option ($6.25 million).

But if the Red Sox are smart, they would be wise to head off (or least forestall) a free agent issue down the road.

For now, Rafael Devers is under control for the next three seasons. This winter will represent his first year of arbitration eligibility, so his salary is bound to increase significantly from the current $692,500.

Now would be a good time to approach Devers with a multi-year offer that can only buy out his three remaining salary arbitration years, but also some free agency seasons, too.

And if you think that it's premature to start worrying about a player who's not eligible for free agency until after 2023, let me remind you of the curious case of one Marcus Lynn "Mookie'' Betts.

The Red Sox made some overtures to Betts long before he got within striking distance of free agency. Their first, which came when Betts had relatively the same amount of service time as Devers has currently, was for $100 million over five seasons. Betts and his representatives rejected the offer without much back-and-forth

A year later, they tried again, and again, the proposal was summarily dismissed.

By the time they got to the final off-season, Betts was close enough to the free agent finish line that it was useless for the Sox to try again. Months later, he was traded to the Dodgers, with the Red Sox increasingly convinced that he was going to test the market and worried that they would little more than a draft pick for him in return.

Now is when the Sox should be taking steps that the exact same scenario doesn't take place again with Devers.



This is, naturally, a tricky time to be proposing multi-year extensions. With the 2020 season just over one-third as long as usual and no paying customers on hand, the Red Sox' financial losses are real and they're spectacular. And just seven months from the start of the 2021 season, there's no assurance that things are going to get any better right away.

Even in the best of times, it's difficult to project a young player's worth for four or five years down the road. There's an inherent risk in committing tens of millions of dollars to a player relatively early in his career. Will the security provide a false sense of security? Is such an investment truly necessary, given that the player remains under team control for several more seasons?

These questions are only heightened during a pandemic in which the game's economy is more uncertain than ever. Do the same salary guidelines and normal progressions apply?

These are things the Red Sox must wrestle with if they are to approach Devers and his representatives with an extension proposal.

But there's little doubt that Devers is worth the effort.

He's clearly established himself as one of the best under-25 players (he'll turn 24 at the end of October) in the game. He led the American League in total bases and doubles in 2019.  And while he began this season poorly -- just as he did in his breakout season of 2019 -- his numbers are on pace to match those of a year ago.

Were this a standard 162-game season, Devers would again be on pace to hit more than 30 homers, knock in more than 100 runs, collect more than 25 doubles and amass considerably more than 300 total bases. Last year, his OPS+ was 133; this year, it's at 129, and the way he's been trending in recent weeks, that number, too, is virtually guaranteed to be at least the equal of a year ago.

Yes, there are potential trouble spots. For the second straight year, Devers had a poor first month at third base, seemingly carrying his slow start at the plate into the field. But like last year, he cleaned up his defensive play after a while. After committing eight errors in his first 17 games, he's since made just two in his next 29 games.

There would be another obvious benefit to locking up Devers for the next five or six years: with shortstop Xander Bogaerts under control through at least the end of the 2025 season, with a vesting option for 2026, the Sox would have both continuity on the left side of the infield and a solid foundation upon which they can rebuild.

A team could do worse than having two players in their young prime -- both of whom are capable of regularly posting an OPS of .900 or greater -- secured for the foreseeable future.

Conversely, there are the obvious risks involved in not addressing the Devers' future while the club still can -- the more time elapses without getting him locked up, the closer he gets to following Betts out the door as free agency draws closer.