NBA Notebook: Eight opening thoughts on Celtics-Heat showdown

The Celtics and Heat are scheduled to start Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Tuesday night (official time TBA), which will allow the Celtics to grab three days of much-needed rest after a grueling seven-game series. Miami has been resting up for nearly a week in preparation for the showdown that pits two of the most innovative coaches in the league against each other in Brad Stevens vs. Erik Spoelstra. We will have a comprehensive scouting report coming on Monday here at BSJ but there’s a lot of ground to cover in the meantime. Let’s begin with eight thoughts on the series.

1. Throw the regular-season matchups mostly out the window when evaluating this series: The Celtics technically hold a 2-1 edge in the three matchups but those two wins for Boston came before the trade deadline. Since then, Miami has transformed their team on a number of fronts including benching starting center Meyers Leonard (he’s out of the rotation) and adding Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala in February. The Celtics and Heat tilt in the Orlando bubble carries a little more weight (the Heat won without Jimmy Butler) but that also came with Kemba Walker dealing with a minutes limit.

The Heat have been an offensively dynamic team all year long but they’ve reached a new level in the postseason with a 33-year-old Goran Dragic turning back the clock with his offensive production (21.1 ppg), Bam Adebayo dominating opposing big men, Jimmy Butler playing efficiently and 3-point shots falling from all over the court from the Heat supporting cast.

The Celtics have the horses to counteract a lot of these matchups and this will be an easier series for them to score than the Toronto matchup. However, the Celtics are going to be stretched very thin at times on the defensive end. There is going to be a limited margin for error in this matchup against what has been the NBA’s third-best offense this postseason.

2. Expect plenty of zone from Miami, but the Celtics should be ready for it: Brad Stevens has probably seen more zone mixed in during regular season matchups against Miami than any other team in his NBA career over the past decade. The formula here for Miami is simple: They have a few defenders that Boston could pick on (Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson) in man-to-man defense and some very athletic defenders that can cover a lot of ground (Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler). Zone is a smart way to cover up some of those problems and also take a team like the Celtics with a lot of firepower out of rhythm.

The good news for Boston? They probably saw more gimmick defenses and zones in seven games against Toronto than they had all season long. Even though Kemba Walker was kept out of rhythm due to the box-and-1 action at times, the Celtics did a nice job of creating secondary offense against the creative looks as a whole against a very disciplined defensive team.

“I've coached in a lot of playoff games now, a lot of playoff series and a lot of NCAA tournament games,” Stevens explained. “I’d say we saw more defenses and more stuff and more ... right when something worked, the next play it didn't work anymore. That's a credit to them. They keep you on your toes the whole time, he's a heck of a coach, they've got really smart players. I think Lowry, obviously, he's up there with the best I've ever coached against as far as thinking the game and putting people in spots and especially on the defensive end. He doesn't get enough credit for it. We should definitely be hardened. We should definitely have a lot more in our toolbox to go back to. We have to get ready for a different, more unique team now in Miami.”

The Heat doesn’t have the defenders the Raptors do. Adebayo and Butler are great but everyone else has their flaws or are past their prime (Andre Iguodala). The Heat have been resting and watching the Celtics-Raptors series, with Erik Spoelstra plotting out ways to slow down the Celtics offense with the same kind of success Toronto has. However, it’s going to be tough to surprise the Celtics with anything in this series based on what they’ve been through.

3. Miami has 3-point shooting everywhere: The Raptors were supposed to be in this category but Pascal Siakam had the worst high volume 3-point shooting series ever and Marc Gasol was afraid to shoot for most of the seven games, which helped make life a little bit easier on Boston’s defense. They will get no breaks in the Eastern Conference Finals against a loaded Miami team. Adebayo is the only player in the rotation that doesn’t take 3s but he is fully capable of knocking down a mid-range jumper. Elsewhere? Confident shooters are everywhere. Six different Heat players in their rotation shot 35 percent or better from 3-point range this season and the others are guys you can’t ignore out on the perimeter either (Andre Iguodala, Jimmy Butler).

The high volume 3-point guys that the Celtics are going to need to locate and avoid separation from at all times are Dragic, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson and Jae Crowder. All four have averaged over six attempters per game during the postseason while shooting 38 percent from 3 or better. Some of these guys (Crowder) are on a hot streak but they have been great at finding open looks within Miami’s dynamic offense. Containing Butler and staying home on shooters is tough to pull off any team and will be Brad Stevens’ biggest challenge this round.

4. The defensive matchup choices are going to be intriguing: Among the starting five for Boston, the only clear cut choice for Boston will be using Daniel Theis to defend Bam Adebayo. Assuming Gordon Hayward is not available to play for Game 1, the Celtics are going to have to weigh a lot of factors with their defensive matchups. We will start the team’s best defender in Smart. Do you simply put him on the best Heat weapon in Butler, just like what ultimately happened with Kyle Lowry last round? Or do you deploy him to contain a shooter like Duncan Robinson or a crafty point guard like Dragic? Kemba Walker makes sense from a speed standpoint on Dragic but that’s a tough assignment for him to handle all series long as he battles screens in the pick-and-roll. Using him on a shooter like Crowder who doesn’t post at all might be a better way to use his speed on closeouts and avoid mismatches. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are fully capable of holding their own against Butler but neither are great at chasing speedy shooters like Robinson around screens. All of this doesn’t mean there won't be cross-matching since there will be all kinds of switching around dribble handoffs and screens so defensive communication will be more important than whatever the original matchup the C’s start in. However, Stevens will need to study hard to find the correct matchups against a dynamic starting five.

5. Could this be another series for Rob Williams? Adebayo was a beast against the Celtics when the two teams faced off in Orlando last month, taking advantage of a small-ball lineup and Theis at times to pile up a career-high 18 free throw attempts. That domination has continued during Miami's postseason run for the All-Star as he’s piled up double-doubles in six of his first nine playoff games while punishing opponents with his terrific passing as well. One thing that stuck out to me about that Heat matchup though back in August was that Rob Williams hadn’t made his way into the Celtics rotation just yet (He broke out against the Nets the following night). Theis will be the primary center in this series but it’s fair to guess that Rob Williams will get a look to help him slow down Adebayo with his rim protection skills and athleticism. The challenge for Timelord will be that the Heat will be sure to target him with switches, which should force him to guard the 3-point line (something that was an issue in Round 2 against Toronto). If Rob Williams gets lost too often on Miami’s shooters, look for Grant Williams to take a bigger role again as a small ball center but matching up with Adebayo will be a very tall task for him as well. The Celtics have to hope R. Williams can rise to the challenge here and give them 10-15 minutes a night since they could really use his offensive rebounding and rim running to put pressure on the Heat's defense. He's also suiting well to handle Adebayo's speed.

6. Gordon Hayward looked great against the Heat when healthy this year: The veteran swingman is expected to return ‘at some point’ during the series according to Stevens after missing the last four weeks with a badly sprained ankle. How exactly the Celtics work him back into the rotation remains to be seen (his minutes' load could be limited) but it’s worth noting that Hayward has a lot of success against the Heat this year. He averaged 22 points and 8 rebounds per game against Miami while shooting 55 percent from the field. He also shot more free throws per game (8) against them than any other opponent. Hayward’s main value here against a Heat team is that they only have so many strong wing defenders so a lot of times, a mismatch (Duncan Robinson/Herro) ends up on Hayward and that’s something that can be exploited by Boston if Hayward is close to 100 percent. Whether or not Hayward can play like his old self so quickly after a serious injury remains to be seen but it could end up being a game-changer for Boston in this series from an offensive standpoint.

7. Familiar faces loom large: Two key contributors in Miami’s upset win over the Bucks? Look no further than Crowder and Kelly Olynyk. Crowder was red-hot from 3-point range against the Bucks, knocking down 43 percent of his 3s. Incredibly, 51 of the 53 shot attempts he took in the series were from 3-point range, turning him into the true definition of a 3-point specialist. Olynyk was hurt for one game in the series but was a huge spark off the bench in Game 5, posting a +22 in 17 minutes while tallying 12 points and 6 rebounds. He shot 58 percent from the series and 45 percent from 3-point range to help the Heat extend their scoring power to the second unit. The Celtics are well aware of the limitations of Crowder and Olynyk but they both been playing their roles incredibly well in Miami thus far. After the Celtics opted to move on from both in the summer of 2017 via trade and free agency, you can bet there will be some added motivation to prove the Celtics made a mistake going with flashier names.

8. Danny Ainge vs. Pat Riley: This has no direct impact on the series but it’s worth bringing up anyway. These guys don’t like each other one bit. In fact, seven years ago, the two executives had an epic war of words that needs to be revisited.

Back in 2013, Ainge took a shot at LeBron James (playing for the Heat at the time) in the wake of him complaining about hard fouls in a loss to the Bulls.

"I think that it’s almost embarrassing that LeBron would complain about officiating,” Ainge told WEEI in a radio interview.

One day later, the Heat issued one of the most shocking press releases you’ll ever see.

"Danny Ainge needs to shut the f--- up and manage his own team,” Riley said in a statement released by the Heat. "He was the biggest whiner going when he was playing, and I know that because I coached against him.”

"I don’t care about Pat Riley,” Ainge replied. "He can say whatever he wants. I don’t want to mess up his Armani suits and all that hair goop. It would be way too expensive for me.”

It’s fair to note all of these exchanges came at the end of the Big Three era in which the Heat had eliminated the Celtics in two straight playoff series, including a Game 7. The teams haven’t faced off in the playoffs again since this exchange but needless to say, I’d expect tensions to rise very quickly once things begin on Tuesday night. It should be a fun series.