Celtics need Brad Stevens to meet challenge vs. Raptors

Before this series began, no one thought a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals would come easy for the Celtics and that’s for good reason. The Raptors are the defending champions and finished with a better winning percentage in 2019-20 even after the departures of Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. They have the reigning Coach of the Year in Nick Nurse, who has masterfully navigated Toronto back from a 2-0 deficit once already in the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals. He’s halfway done with doing it again ahead of a crucial Game 5 on Monday night against the Celtics. On the flip side, Brad Stevens and the Celtics find themselves effectively having to beat Toronto five times in seven games now after letting Game 3 slip away in the final half-second. That’s a hurdle the team’s core didn’t bounce back from in the midst of a surprisingly flat Game 4 effort.

The winner of Game 5 in a 2-2 NBA playoff series goes on to win the playoff series 82 percent of the time (albeit none of those series came on a neutral court before this season). With both teams showing most of their cards in this one after having faced each other a whopping eight times already during the 2019-20 season, the focus will turn more than ever to the coaching battle to decide what is now a best-of-three series.

Nick Nurse has bounced back off the mat quite nicely in the past two games after facing a 0-2 deficit. His play call at the end of Game 3 punished Brad Stevens for going to one of his tendencies out of inbounds defense (zone), which put a number of Celtics player in a position to make tough choices in defending the play (Theis, Jaylen Brown). In Game 4, more defensive adjustments continued for the Raptors that allowed them to come out on top. Toronto masterfully avoided keeping their two bigs (Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka) out of pick-and-roll defense by playing a mix of matchup zone and simply pre-switching defensive assignments on the Celtics screener to keep Gasol and Ibaka out of the action. These actions took away a lot of the easy chances that Kemba Walker had in this series to score for himself or set up easy chances for his teammates once help came, and Stevens didn’t show a good counter for it in Game 4 as the C’s offense fell flat in the second half, relying on 3-point shots that weren’t falling.

Defensively, Nurse has been on the hunt for ways to grind out points for his offensively-challenged core in the half court. He’s worked hard to target Kemba Walker in the pick-and-roll, generating 1.18 points per possessions according to Second Spectrum on 17 plays when Walker is the screener. Walker is the only real size mismatch on the floor for the C’s in this series (outside of big men against guards,  so forcing Walker into mismatches against Toronto’s bigger wings has been a recipe for points in the last two games. Nurse has also turned Serge Ibaka into largely a 3-point specialist, (10-of-19 from 3-point range) with his pick and pops to punish a Celtics team that’s trying to avoid switching at the point of attack. Living with Ibaka jumpers was an easy choice early in the series knowing the Celtics defense can’t take away everything Toronto wants to do. However, he’s hit enough in this series now that Stevens has to think twice about his strategy.

These will be the areas that will have Stevens and his coaching staff losing sleep over the past two nights. Luckily, the head coach has fared well in these situations in the past. Stevens is 4-1 all-time in Game 5s when the series is tied at 2-2, and he’s produced some of his finest work in these moments. In 2018 against the Bucks in the first round, Stevens made the surprise choice to insert little-used rookie Semi Ojeleye into the starting five in place of Aron Baynes, an adjustment that helped the C’s win an evenly matched series in seven games.

Stevens should consider a similar shift for Game 5. Boston’s offense has fallen flat in recent games without Robert Williams on the floor and the second-year center is better off matching up defensively with Marc Gasol (0-of-9 from 3-point range) than Serge Ibaka (10-of-19 in the series). Daniel Theis has been the starting center since Game 2 of the regular season but he hasn’t been the same guy this postseason when it comes to being a useful offensive threat. He’s not taking 3s reliably anymore (1-of-5) and the Celtics have a team-worst 93.6 offensive rating with him on the court since the Game 1 blowout win.

Boston’s starting five has also sputtered together in this series (88 offensive rating, -12 net rating), so keeping that group together to start games simply for continuity may not be worth it anymore. If Stevens isn’t willing to make the starting switch, he should at least try to match up minute-for-minute with Rob Williams and Gasol as much as he can until Gasol shows he can actually hit 3s.

Playing Williams more is one way to get Boston’s offense out of the mud (with his ability as a rim runner and offensive rebounder), but the C’s staff are going to need more creative tweaks to attack Toronto’s hybrid defense. Marc Gasol has surprisingly been a huge net positive for the Raptors on both ends (team-best +13.2 net rating) during his 73 minutes over the past three tight games. The Celtics can’t let him simply hide on defense by patrolling the paint in the zone or pre-switching to get out of actions against some of Boston’s quicker offensive weapons. It’s on the C’s to pay for this tactic since playing Gasol off the court should open up Boston’s offense (Raptors are allowing five points more per 100 possessions when Ibaka is at center).

Defensively, there are tough choices to make as well. Putting Walker regularly on a low usage threat like OG Anunoby instead of VanVleet could help the Celtics combat getting him in bad switches. Mixing in a little bit of zone defense and other looks as well (as the Raptors are doing) could be a tactic to throw the Raptors off balance and ensure pick-and-pop looks aren’t there for Ibaka when he’s in the game. The right personnel needs to be in the game to pull off these kinds of looks so the C’s aren’t out of position, and it’s on the head coach to make sure he knows the right buttons to push.

The minutes game with Boston’s starters is going to be fascinating to watch with the stakes raised. Nurse is already maxing out his five best players with 43-46 minutes a night for Lowry, VanVleet and Siakam. Tatum should be in that company now but the choice is less simple for Stevens. Jaylen Brown has been in a dramatic shooting slump in this series and the C’s defense has been 28(!) points better per 100 possessions with him on the bench during the last three games as Semi Ojeleye and Grant Williams have shown themselves to be fully capable of handling the Raptors wings and bigs when they are on the floor. Riding Brown more and playing those guys less isn’t necessarily the answer if Brown can’t get his offense going despite his near All-Star level play all year long. This has not been a good series for him and Stevens can’t let him play too much if he’s going to drag Boston down. Giving a chance to a strong wing defender like Romeo Langford might be worth a shot if the Raptors are getting hot from 3-point range and Brown is as casual with his closeouts as he was in Game 4.

“The game is not going to be played perfectly,” Stevens said Sunday. “It just has to be played with great intentions; we’ve said that many times. I think there are things obviously that we can improve upon from yesterday, but no matter what, we’re not going to play perfect (in Game 5). Nobody is. So we just try to play as well as we can, as hard as we can, and then let the chips fall where they may. And so, if you can minimize your errors and maximize the purpose of every possession, that’s what you’re trying to do.”

Stevens isn’t going to win this series all by himself. He’s going to need Kemba Walker or Jayson Tatum to emerge as the best player in the series over Kyle Lowry. He’s going to need some 3s to start falling. However, he can let himself be on the losing end of the tactic game and that’s where he currently finds himself after Game 4. Putting players in the best position to succeed in this series is essential against a smart opponent like Toronto and that needs to happen more in order for the Celtics to win the series.