Calling for more Rob Williams and other adjustments to watch for in Celtics-Raptors Game 4

One area where Nick Nurse won the battle in Game 3 of the Celtics-Raptors series was in the desperation game. After watching his bench largely fall flat all series beyond Serge Ibaka, he decided that he needed to ride any offensive momentum in the must-win contest. For Game 3, that was Kyle Lowry, who came out of the gate with 10 points in the first quarter thanks to an aggressive array of moves towards the rim.

Ultimately, Lowry played a season-high 46 minutes and all of the final 32 minutes of the game, which helped the All-Star point guard rally Toronto from a 10-point deficit ahead of a shocking 104-103 win.

While Nurse was wisely riding hot hands in Game 3, Brad Stevens did a little bit of experimentation in the second half. He gave Enes Kanter his first appearance of the season over Rob Williams midway through the third quarter even after the Raptors had already started out the second half hot. Kanter only played four minutes in the third before getting yanked but Toronto proceeded to score 14 points in that stretch to tie up the game.

The decision to give Kanter a shot in this series didn’t seem to come out of desperation. It was simply an idea to mix things up after the C’s came out flat at the start of the half according to the head coach.

“I thought his rebounding would help us,” Stevens said after the loss. “I thought we started the third quarter really low. I just didn’t think we played well. We gave up four layups right out of the gate. They’re switching up defenses obviously. They have long, athletic guys that can do it, they have smart guys. The way they play man they’re used to rotating and scrambling and all that stuff, so I thought we attacked it better as the game went on. But they mixed it up. They had some triangle, they played some zone, they’ve got the guard in the middle of the zone, they played obviously a lot of man, mixed up their matchups. It’s one of those games, like the previous two, where you have to be ready to attack different things at different times.”

Whether or not Stevens was simply trying to keep Kanter engaged after two straight DNP-CDs is certainly something worth considering. However, sending in your worst defensive player in the midst of a bad defensive start to the half is generally never a good idea, especially in the postseason.

Perhaps more importantly, giving Kanter a chance took some opportunity away from someone who has quietly been one of the best players in this series in Rob Williams.

Despite shooting 91.7 percent from the field in the series (11-of-12), Williams minutes have been on a steady decline in each game of the series.

Game 1: 18
Game 2: 17
Game 3: 13

Williams did not provide the offensive boost in Game 3 (only 3 points) that we saw with his double-digit scoring nights in the first two games but he did pluck seven rebounds in 13 minutes and dished out a career-high three assists with a number of good looks that led to open shots out of an initial pick-and-roll. His rolling threat has led to the Raptors to start prioritizing protecting the lane against him and that is opening up outlet passes. Williams has shown himself capable of making those passes in this series.

Perhaps most importantly though is Williams offensive impact when he’s on the floor. Here’s the Celtics offensive rating when he’s on the court

Rob Williams: 119.4 points per 100 possessions (1st on team)
Daniel Theis: 94.9 points per 100 possessions (8th on team)

That’s not to say Theis doesn’t have great value in this series. The Celtics defense is miles better when he’s on the floor over Williams.

Celtics defensive rating with player on court

Daniel Theis: 90.2 points allowed per 100 possessions
Rob Williams: 110.1 points per 100 possessions
Enes Kanter: 175 points per 100 possessions (four minutes)

Williams is a drawback defensively but his pros are still outweighing his cons in this series as evidence by his +9.4 net rating (C’s are +5.2 with him on the bench).

Despite these numbers and the fact Williams was a +13 in the team’s seeding game battle back in early August, Williams’ minutes remain in line with the rest of the bench regulars in this series so far.

R. Williams: 50
Wanamaker: 49
G. Williams: 45
Ojeleye: 39

If the Celtics offense starts to sputter as it did in the second half of Game 3, Stevens is better off turning to Timelord over Theis (86 minutes in series) earlier and perhaps for more extended stretches. Conditioning has been an issue at times for Rob Williams so shorter stints but more of them might be the answer to keep him fresh. Getting him on the floor more with at least one of Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart is crucial as well given that the Celtics are scoring 128 points per 100 possessions when Williams is on the court with either of the crafty point guards.

With a crucial Game 4 looming on Saturday night that will swing the series one way or another, Stevens needs to start to coach more desperate. That means riding any paths that have shown success against Toronto. Williams has been a consistent pillar of that success in Boston’s three wins against Toronto dating back to the seeding games. It’s time for him to be treated as such.

Other Adjustments to Watch For in Game 4

Make Kyle Lowry shoot from the perimeter? It’s easier said than done against one of the best point guards in the league but coming off a game-high 31 points in game 3, it’s hard not to zoom in on the fact he scored 20 of those points in the paint, a career-high for him.

Lowry is an average 3-point shooter (35.2 percent in regular season) but he’s been miserable from beyond the arc in this series (3-of-20). That has led to his relentless attacking of the paint in Game 3 with great success. The Celtics can’t concede open looks to him entirely by going under screens but they must be more vigilant about taking away paths to the paint from him. He’s not looking to shoot 3s right now first and he should be defended as such until he proves otherwise.

Respect OG Anunoby from 3-point range: The Celtics have shown they are willing to live with Serge Ibaka taking 3s in this series to have bigs defend the paint more and that’s a good strategy in the long run. However, the only other hot shooter in this series right now is OG Anunoby (8-of-14) coming off a game-winning buzzer-beater in Game 3. He’s made enough now where the Celtics need to respect him more and opt not to cheat off him from the corners.

Dare Marc Gasol to shoot more 3s: He’s 0-of-8 in the series from 3-point range and is now just shooting 15 percent from deep in the postseason. Since the NBA restart began in Orlando, he’s just 10-of-43 (23 percent from 3-point range). The Raptors want to keep him on the floor for his defense and passing but the Celtics must make them pay for that. Taking away the paint and making Gasol show he can shoot is an easy way to provide more resistance to Lowry and stay on the Raps’ other shooters like Anunoby. It’s a defensive strategy the C’s may be better off running with in Game 4.