Robb: Opportunity knocks for Celtics amid Bucks struggles against Heat

You never know when opportunity is going to knock in the NBA Playoffs. It’s essential to be ready when a chance comes your way, something the Celtics nearly did in the closing days of the Big Three era in 2012. A middle-of-the-road playoff team found itself one win away from the NBA Finals thanks to upsets and injuries (Derrick Rose, Chris Bosh) before LeBron James shut the door on that surprise chance.

From a youth standpoint, there may be no better cautionary tale on valuing opportunity than the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2010s. A promising young core filled with superstars made their NBA Finals debut ahead of schedule in that same 2012 postseason against the Heat in what was assumed to be the first trip of many. Thanks to injuries, a sizable trade mistake (Harden) and formidable opponents in the Western Conference over the next five years, OKC never even made it back to the NBA Finals before Kevin Durant skipped town in 2016.

The future of the Celtics appears now to be just as bright as it was for the Thunder back in 2012 with two emerging All-Stars at the helm, including one top-10 player. A deep playoff run for this young core would be a tremendous accomplishment but on the surface, there isn’t exactly significant pressure or expectations to get to the NBA Finals now.

Yet, one look around the NBA Conference Semifinals makes you wonder: Are the Celtics going to get a better opportunity to make an NBA Finals than this?

That’s not to say the Celtics are even certain to advance past the Eastern Conference Semifinals. History says the odds are strongly in their favor (93 percent of NBA teams have advanced to next round after going up 2-0). Toronto was the last team to pull off one of those comebacks against the Bucks in 2019, something Brad Stevens has undoubtedly hammered into his team ahead of Game 3. His guys aren’t looking ahead yet and they shouldn’t be against the defending champions.

“This series is far from over,” Jayson Tatum said Tuesday night. “We’ve got to win four and obviously it feels good to win, but tomorrow we’re going to look at things we did well and things we could do better and keep competing, like we have. No matter the circumstances, up 10, down 10, we’re going to keep playing.”

“We have to continue to play desperate,” Marcus Smart added. “Even though we’re up, we have to play like we’re down. We have to play games to win, not to lose. A lot of teams at this point, they play not to lose instead of just being who they are. For us, that’s getting up into guys, playing great defense, and moving the ball on the offensive end.”

Even though the Celtics aren’t looking ahead, that’s not stopping us from looking closer at the big picture the wake of the Heat taking a 2-0 series lead over the Bucks on Wednesday night. Using history as a guide, that puts an 86 percent chance of both the Celtics and Heat facing off in the Eastern Conference Finals given their commanding series leads.

Milwaukee isn’t going down easy but the Heat’s early wins in this series have not been of the fluky variety. Like Boston against Toronto, they had their way against the Bucks in the regular-season series, taking two of three games behind a versatile offensive attack that stretched the Bucks defense with their elite 3-point shooting across four positions. They also arguably have the best physical defender for Giannis Antetokounmpo in the East in Bam Adebayo.

The Bucks have a lot more talent than the Raptors to come back in the series (they are less than 2-to-1 underdogs to come back, Toronto is closer to 5-to-1) but their problems are real in this series. They haven’t looked great in the bubble throughout the seeding games and have run into an opponent with an elite coaching staff and the formula to take them down.

One league executive mentioned to me before the start of the postseason that he anticipated the Celtics would have a tougher time getting to the NBA Finals rather than winning it if they managed to make it through the East bracket. Suddenly, that path seems to be getting less daunting by the second with Toronto struggling to score in this matchup and Miami on their way to taking out the NBA’s reigning MVP (and a nightmare matchup for Boston).

A look across the rest of the NBA, though, should provide the Celtics with a great sense of urgency though while focusing on the task at hand. Even with Gordon Hayward sidelined for at least another two weeks at minimum as he recovers from Grade 3 ankle sprain it’s fair to wonder: Will the Celtics find stars aligned better than this for a potential deep postseason run?

Internally, they’ve already tied a franchise record to begin the postseason with six straight wins. Tatum has been the best player in the East during this postseason and he’s been supported by two guys scoring 20 points per game. With the miles on Kemba Walker’s tires at age 30, there’s no guarantee that he will remain this healthy for future postseasons and have the benefit of a long period rest, no travel and a controlled ramp-up to postseason play instead of playing playoff games after an 82-game grind.

After winning five games against Toronto in six matchups this season, it’s fair to say now that the Celtics are better than the Raptors from a talent standpoint, even without Hayward. Toronto has suffered from bad shooting luck in this series but mediocre offense has been their Achilles heel all season long. Barring a disastrous collapse, the Celtics should win this series.

A look around the rest of the association shows a bunch of talented teams but none without flaws. The Celtics went 2-1 against the Heat during the regular season, including their last (healthy) loss in Orlando. Miami would present serious challenges with their 3-point shooting but they are still a preferred matchup to Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference Finals in my mind from Boston’s perspective. On paper, the Celtics have more top-level talent in that series, especially if they can get Hayward back for some of it.

There isn’t a team in the Western Conference the Celtics should be afraid of either. Outside of Houston, they have beaten all of the remaining contenders at least once this year. All of their losses against the Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets and Rockets came down to the wire (except for one loss in Houston). The Lakers had a walkover in Round 1 against the Blazers but everyone else in that group has been tested in Round 1 and showed off some flaws by dropping two or more games in a best-of-seven series. The title race is as wide open as it’s been in at least a decade with at least 5-6 teams still holding realistically title aspirations. The Celtics are a team on that list with their play in Orlando.

With a neutral court serving as a great equalizer during these playoffs, the Celtics need to cherish their opportunity starting with Game 3 against the Raptors on Thursday night.

Despite Boston’s youth and continued improvement, the path to the NBA Finals might not get more clear than this in the upcoming decade. Durant will be a potential roadblock in Brooklyn next season while winning on the road in Milwaukee is likely going to be required in future postseasons, something that has never been easy for this group. Factor that in with the realities of the salary cap amid the pandemic also makes it unlikely that this core with Hayward will remain intact beyond next season (barring a serious discount). Walker remaining at this performance level can’t be guaranteed either as he ages into his 30s.

Tatum’s development guarantees the Celtics will be in the playoff mix for years to come but the bracket may never break again as nicely as it is now for this group. Opportunity is knocking in the present and it’s on Brad Stevens to help this group run with it. Unlike 2018, they have the horses to pull off a win against any opponent if Milwaukee is out of the mix.

To start, finishing the job against the Raptors efficiently would certainly help the cause, beginning with a make or break Game 3 on Thursday night for Toronto.