Scouting Report: Can Celtics hold up against Raptors elite defense?

With the Celtics-Raptors matchup set to kick off this weekend after the players protest earlier this week, we continue our breakdown of the matchup with a look at how the Celtics offense matches up against an elite Toronto defense. 

The Basics for Raptors

Pace: 102.9 (12th in NBA)
No. 13 offense: 110.7 points per 100 possessions
No. 2 defense: 104.7 points per 100 possessions
+6.1 net rating (4th) 

RAPTORS ON DEFENSE

Strengths

3-point defense: Toronto gives up a ton of 3-point attempts (38.9 per game is the second-most in the league) but no one in the NBA does a better job of locking down on perimeter shooters. The Raptors held opponents to 33.7 percent shooting from beyond the arc this season, the best in the league and that’s largely a tribute to their versatile defensive personnel. Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet are great at pressuring the ball on the perimeter and getting in guys’ air space while Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby have incredible recovery speed and terrific length at both forward spots, allowing both guys to cover a ton of ground. Toronto does a lot of scrambling on defense but they do it well and make what appear to be open looks disappear.

Ball movement is not always a strength of the Celtics but it will need to be in order for them to have success on the perimeter in this series. Repeated drive-and-kicks will be necessary to get open looks along with making the extra pass and taking the shot when it's first open. Overpassing can be an issue against Toronto (it was in the first quarter of Boston's seeding game matchup versus Toronto) so Brad Stevens will need to have this group walk that line carefully between unselfishness and appropriate aggression. More importantly for Boston will be the need for secondary shooters to help keep Toronto’s defense honest. Kemba Walker, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will have the full attention of Toronto’s perimeter defense while Marcus Smart and Daniel Theis will be dared to shoot as Toronto helps off them. The Celtics will need those guys to fare better than they did in the Sixers series (4-of-27 from 3-point range) to give the Celtics a chance against an elite Raptors defense. If Raptors end up going small, Brad Wanamaker will be thrown into a big role as a spacer as well.

Forcing turnovers: The Raptors are built on ball pressure, something that has allowed them to force 16.8 turnovers by their opponents every game, the highest number in the league. The job begins in the backcourt with the All-Star Lowry providing constant pressure at age 34. He’s elite at drawing charges, gets up into opponents no matter their size and sets the tone for the rest of the Raptors defense. His running mate VanVleet leads the team in steals with nearly two per game. Siakam and Anunoby could be considered the best defensive pair of forwards in the NBA with their combination of size, strength and versatility. Their ability to help, pressure and recover puts them on an elite tier and that is a weapon that sends opposing offenses into disarray as players try to make passes and find openings that disappear quickly. Marc Gasol’s minutes are down this year but he remains a steady defensive anchor by the rim, which allows his athletic teammates to roam freely. The continuity within the entire group over the last few years has created a connected unit that can turn miscues by opponents into easy offense.

The removal of a ballhandler in Gordon Hayward in the Celtics lineup should make life tougher when it comes to handling Toronto pressure. Marcus Smart provides another option to run the offense next to Walker and Tatum but Stevens is going to need to handle his rotations carefully. Wanamaker will be playing big minutes in this series but he’s also the most turnover prone player in the C’s guard rotation. He shouldn’t be left alone against the Raptors guards if they pick up full court so it will be essential to keep Tatum or Smart on the floor with him at all times. Grant Williams (highest turnover rate on roster) is another guy that will need to be strong with the ball and avoid committing miscues against the Raptors length in the frontcourt.

Zone/Pressing: This is more of a coaching strength but it’s one that looms large in a seven-game series. The Raptors played the third most zone in the NBA this season, including a successful three-quarter court trap that helped launch numerous comebacks. The Sixers tried some zone against the C’s but had limited success due mostly to their personnel. However, the challenge will get much bigger for Boston if Toronto brings it out. They have the mobile defenders to contest Boston’s 3-point shots and challenge them to move the ball quickly, which could lead to mistakes. With the Celtics having some iffy shooters that can be cheated off of, Nick Nurse could get creative with a matchup zone look in this series to throw the Celtics offense off balance.

Weaknesses

Defensive rebounding: This is an area that the Celtics could decide to pick on. Marc Gasol is a seven-footer but a soft rebounder for his size at his advancing age. His backup Serge Ibaka does a nice job of cleaning the glass but beyond him, there aren’t many above-average rebounders on this team. Lowry likes to get his hands dirty on the glass but he’s only six-feet tall so his size along with VanVleet’s hurts Toronto’s gang rebounding. Siakam and Anunoby are unremarkable rebounders as well despite their athleticism, which will lead to a tough choice for Stevens. Does he send some guys crashing to the glass to take advantage of this clear weakness or will prioritizing transition defense take priority against the Raptors speed? Boston was able to do both in their win over Toronto during the seeding games so that’s the balance Stevens will be shooting for here. Boston outscored Toronto 63-37 in second-chance points during the regular season so this is an advantage that the C’s should be able to maintain. Enes Kanter only played in two of the team’s four regular-season matchups so he wasn’t responsible for a lot of the offensive rebounding edge either. That will need to continue for Boston since Grant Williams and Rob Williams may play more than him in this series.

Shot blocking: While the Raptors do a great job with their defensive scheme of contesting shots at the rim, they don’t have a traditional shot-blocker down low anymore. Gasol and Serge Ibaka were two elite ones back in the day but both are past their primes now, averaging just over one block per 36 minutes. Chris Boucher is the best shot blocker on the roster but he’s unlikely to see minutes in this series based on Toronto’s tight playoff rotation. The Celtics will have a tough time getting open looks with Toronto’s strong defense but they won’t have to worry as much about a true big swatting their chances away.

Bench guards: The Raptors have a lot of offensive firepower coming off the bench in the backcourt with Norm Powell, Terence Davis and Matt Thomas all capable of putting up a lot of points in a hurry. However, all of these guys are considered minus defenders compared to the Raptors starting five. Normally, this wouldn’t matter much with a healthy Raptors starting five, but Lowry’s sprained ankle could put a couple of these guys in spots they aren’t comfortable in. Powell will play big minutes but he doesn’t have much of a chance against the likes of Tatum, Brown or Walker in an individual defensive matchup. The same goes for Davis and Thomas against any of Boston’s wings or even a creator like Smart. For that reason, Lowry and VanVleet play more minutes than just about any backcourt in the league. If Nurse can’t give Lowry that kind of run in this series, the Celtics should be able to take advantage.