We’ve covered the ramifications of the 2020 Grizzlies' first-round pick heading into the draft lottery all season here at BostonSportsJournal.com, but here is a guide to assist you with the watching experience (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) as the C’s try to add to their assortment of draft assets in what could be a critical night for the team’s offseason plans
Q: What picks can the Celtics land tonight and why?
A: The Celtics can only land one pick in tonight’s draft for 2020 and that’s the No. 14 overall selection via Memphis. The Grizzlies owe Boston a 2020 first-round pick but it is top-6 protected for the 2020 NBA Draft. Therefore, if the Grizzlies jump up into the top four spots of the lottery (they can’t land in 5-13 range), Memphis will keep the pick for 2020 and the Celtics will get a 2021 unprotected first-round pick from Memphis instead.
Q: What are the odds of the Grizzlies landing a top-four pick?
A: Very low. There is only a 2.4 percent chance they jump up in one of the top four spots since they are the best team (record-wise) in the lottery. If the Grizzlies pick jumps up into the top-four, they will keep the pick. There is a 97.6 percent chance the Celtics get the No. 14 overall pick and a 2.4 percent chance the Grizzlies pick will roll over to 2021 for Boston.
Q: Will we see the lottery happen on TV?
A: No, the NBA will hold the proceedings out of sight Thursday evening before the results are announced live in a half-hour special on ESPN at 8:30 p.m. ET (after the Bucks-Magic game ends).
Q: Why do the Grizzlies have the worst lottery odds when they finished with the same record as the Suns?
A: The lottery standings were frozen as of March 11 when the NBA season was suspended. Portland was moved out of the lottery since they made the postseason but the Grizzlies had the best record of any lottery team on that March 11 date. Due to that, they are locked into the No. 14 slot for odds while Phoenix is locked into No. 10 despite their strong 8-0 finish to the season in Orlando.
Q: What’s the best-case scenario for the Celtics?
A: The best-case scenario in terms of possible upside is the pick rolling over to 2021 for a couple of reasons. First, the Celtics already have two first-round picks in the 2020 NBA Draft (No. 26, No. 30) on a crowded roster so it’s preferable from a team-building standpoint to have an extra first-round pick in 2021 rather than a third for the 2020 NBA Draft with limited roster space available for next season for everyone.
The bigger allure of the Grizzlies pick rolling over is the fact that it is unprotected in 2021. While Memphis looks to be a team on the rise in the Western Conference thanks to the emergence of Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., the West is absolutely loaded with young talent everywhere going forward. As we saw this year with the Kings, a team can fall back into the lottery pack after exceeding expectations one season.
Between injuries and players taking a step back, it’s highly possible the Grizzlies could be a middle-of-the-road lottery team again next year and that would give the Celtics a realistic shot at a top-4 overall pick in 2021. It’s very rare for this scenario to happen with just a 2.4 percent chance the pick rolls over but it’s the one the Celtics should be rooting for.
Q: What’s the worst-case scenario for the Celtics?
A: I guess technically the worst-case scenario would be the pick rolling over to next year and Memphis turning into a good playoff team during the 2020-21 season, which would push the pick in the 20s. Getting the pick this year at No. 14 can’t be considered the worst-case scenario but it’s simply the probable scenario.
Q: Anything else I should be watching for with other teams that could impact the Celtics?
Not much. All the teams in the lottery own their draft picks this year except for Memphis so there are no other potential pick swaps that could occur based on the results. Here’s a look at the full odds from Tankathon.com
From a rooting perspective, I think the Celtics fans should be pushing for any team but the Warriors to get the No. 1 pick. In fact, the farther down Golden State goes towards No. 5 (the lowest possible spot for them), the better it is for Boston. The Warriors are the only team right now in this group that could emerge as a contender again next season and having top-3 pick would be a huge trade weapon for them to help land another star to put besides Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green.
It’s far from a guarantee that the Warriors will get out of the Western Conference in the playoffs next year even if they are back at full strength but their situation is reminiscent of the Celtics in 2017 with plenty of talent already in place along with lottery picks to give them options. Some luck with the ping pong balls on Thursday night should put the Warriors in a great spot out West for the years to come after a disastrous 2019-20 season.
Other than that? No real teams to worry about moving up here from Boston’s perspective, especially in the Eastern Conference.