NBA Notebook: Seven bubble thoughts and scouting the Sixers defense

The Sixers were composed to be juggernauts on the defensive end of the floor last summer but that will be a very tall task against the Celtics without the services of All-Star wing Ben Simmons. Without the versatile defender to throw at Jayson Tatum and Boston's other wings, the Sixers should see a dropoff from their 8th rated defense in the NBA this season.

What areas will the Celtics be able to attack and where could the C's struggle? In part two of our Celtics-Sixers series preview, let's hone in on how the C's matchup against the Sixers defense.

STRENGTHS

Defensive rebounding: The loss of Ben Simmons and his 7.8 rebounds per game will hurt a bit on this front but the Sixers should have enough bulk in the frontcourt to make up for it on the glass most nights. Philadelphia was the second-best defensive rebounding team in the NBA this season, led by Joel Embiid (11.6 rebounds per game). Tobias Harris (6.9 rebounds per game) is probably one of the best rebounders in the league out of guys who play a lot of small forward and while Al Horford’s rebounding numbers come and go, he should have the strength and smarts still to keep the likes of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown off the glass. The challenge for the Sixers in this area will come when Embiid is off the floor and Enes Kanter or Rob Williams is out there. Brett Brown has been going small off the bench with Mike Scott playing some stretch center at times but his lack of size/strength could allow him to get bullied on the defensive glass. For that reason, I’d expect to see one of Embiid/Horford play all 48 minutes at center and try to keep the Celtics from getting second-chance opportunities. Kanter will be the only real weapon the C’s can combat Embiid’s strength with on the glass but Stevens will have to weigh that against his defensive issues. Other than that, look for the Celtics wings to crash the offensive glass from the corners if Philly's defense gets out of position while contesting shooters.

Taking away 3-point attempts: The Sixers do one thing better than any team in the NBA and that’s taking away 3-point attempts. While they were a middle of the road team defending the 3 (13th in NBA), they topped the league in 3-point attempts allowed, holding teams to just 29.4 attempts per game. It will be hard for the Sixers to sustain that number against a Boston team with 3-point shooting potential at every position of the floor but it’s evident what the Sixers game plan will be: Run shooters off the line and force the Celtics to beat them inside the arc with midrange jumpers or forays into the paint against Philly’s longer defenders. The potential game-changing subplot for Boston here will be whether Daniel Theis can knock down a couple of 3s to help pull Philly’s bigs outside the paint. That was a huge x-factor two years ago when Aron Baynes started knocking down corner 3s in the postseason since it forced Joel Embiid to think twice about staying home. That will certainly be a goal early for this year's group as well. Keep an eye on Josh Richardson defensively in this matchup too. He will most likely draw Kemba Walker and did a terrific job in a couple matchups this year at impacting his 3-point pull-ups when chasing Walker around screens. The Sixers will need him to work his magic again there since that’s a shot that should be there all series long for Walker against Philly’s bigs when they drop back in their pick-and-roll defense. Matisse Thybulle will also be asked to hound Hayward/Brown/Tatum on the perimeter all series long as well.

Joel Embiid at the rim: The block numbers aren’t overly impressive for this group (5.3 per game) but I expect that number to go up in the postseason thanks to the All-Star big man. Embiid has been an elite rim protector in his last two playoffs and while his numbers in this department have not been stellar during the regular season, I fully expect him to stay engaged at a higher level for this series. Boston has had a history of struggling at the rim (18th in the NBA in FG percentage inside three feet) so life will not be easy for Tatum, Walker and company on their forays in the paint. The Celtics will need to be smart with their passing to attack openings when they are available and try to draw Embiid and Horford out of the paint. That will be easy if 3-point shots are falling but if not, Boston’s offense could run into some stiff resistance for the first time since facing the Heat/Bucks in Orlando.

WEAKNESSES

Forcing turnovers: While the Sixers have a pair of stronger perimeter defenders in Richardson and Matisse Thybulle that will make it tough on Boston’s versatile wings, the loss of Simmons should really hurt them here.

He was among the league leaders in steals per game (2.1) and without him, there are limited options to disrupt Boston’s scoring weapons. Horford and Harris are too slow to provide adequate ball pressure against Boston’s wings and there isn’t a lot of quality defensive talent coming off the bench either. Shake Milton is a net negative as the starting point guard on defense while Alec Burks and Furkan Korkmaz are not known for their defense to put it kindly. Those weak spots should allow the Celtics to have a mismatch in their favor at one spot on the floor for nearly the entire game if Philly's going to prioritize 3-point shooting. The Sixers were already poor at creating turnovers (20th in NBA) before they lost Simmons to injury and the early returns in Orlando on that front without him have not been pretty (21st out of 22 bubble teams in forcing turnovers). Put simply, the Sixers have prioritized offense over defense with many of their recent personnel decisions and their defense has suffered for it. With slower defenders in the frontcourt and subpar defenders on the wings by and large, the Celtics should have no trouble getting into the actions they want on offense.

Fouling: Once again a lack of speed in the frontcourt comes into play here for Philly. While the Sixers may excel at taking away 3-point opportunities, closing out aggressively on shooters leaves them in a vulnerable spot to be out of position on defensive rotations. That opens the door to sending guys to the free-throw line when drivers force contact, something that the Sixers have ranked in the bottom 10 of all season. The Celtics have never been a great team at getting to the line during the Brad Stevens era (minus Isaiah Thomas at his peak) but they have shown some considerable strides in this area in Orlando. Tatum, Brown and Hayward have all been aggressive getting to the rim against defenses in rotations and that’s exactly what the Celtics will try to do against Philly to get key bigs like Embiid and Horford into foul trouble. The Sixers' net rating falls off a cliff whenever Embiid is off the court so the Celtics forcing him to play with foul trouble early in games could swing the series on a nightly basis.

Transition D: The Sixers have allowed 13.7 fast break points per game to opponents, which slots them into the bottom third of the league in this department. I’d argue this part of the game will be their biggest challenge for the starting five against the small-ball Celtics who have four guys that can bring the ball up the floor at any time. Horford and Embiid will lose a foot race to any Celtic starter and you can bet Stevens will implore his guys to push the ball up the floor at any opportunity to avoid facing the Sixers length in the half court.

“They play really good defense,” Kemba Walker said Saturday. “I think we can use our speed, I think that’s one of our advantages. We’re going to try to use that to the best of our abilities. And just our overall competitive nature. It’s going to be a battle, it’s going to be a hard-fought battle.”

7 Bubble Thoughts

1. No Celtics were named to the All-Bubble team for seeding games. This is one award that no one on the Celtics will lose any sleep over but a bit surprising to see Jayson Tatum miss out on a spot on the second team for the seeding games in the bubble. There was some top-tier names on the first team but seeing a guy like Michael Porter Jr. get the nod over Tatum despite comparable stats on a 3-4 Nuggets team in Orlando is a sign the national media isn’t fully aware of how good Tatum’s defense has been lately. Porter Jr. is a liability on that end of the floor, which should have been it an easy choice between the two.

2. One wise commenter on BSJ brought up how the Celtics should have Romeo Langford undergo surgery now on his right wrist to ensure he’s ready for next season. It’s a smart school of thought on that front given how short the offseason could be for Boston with a deep playoff run. However, there have been whispers that the NBA is considering waiting until early in 2021 (January-March range) to start next season in hopes of increasing the odds that fans will be allowed back into arenas at some point in 2021. If things are trending in that direction, Langford should still have at least three months to heal even if the Celtics are playing into September.

3. Two head coaching jobs opened up in the NBA this week, with arguably one of the most attractive positions in the league opening up in New Orleans to mold a young Zion Williamson. The Pelicans were a disaster in Orlando on the defensive end so I’d expect Pelicans GM David Griffin to try to land a coach that emphasizes that end of the floor far more than Alvin Gentry did. Jim Boylen was also let go in Chicago after a disastrous season with the Bulls. Keep an eye on Jay Larranaga and Scott Morrison as a couple Celtics assistants who should get a look for those positions.

4. The combination of the Kings’ 13th consecutive season without making the playoffs and Luka Doncic turning into an MVP candidate in his second NBA season was enough for Vlade Divac to walk away from his general manager gig in Sacramento this week. Divac famously went with Marvin Bagley III over Doncic with the second pick in the 2018 NBA Draft pick in what could go down as one of the worst decisions in NBA Draft history. While getting fresh blood into the front office should be good news for the Kings, the bad news is that Joe Dumars is reportedly leading the search for a new executive. Dumars had plenty of success two decades ago building a Detroit contender in the early 2000s but he also sunk that franchise into oblivion just a few years later.

5. The NBA should really make the play-in tournament for the No. 8 seed in both conference a more permanent thing. The added competition out West really enhanced the entertainment value this week of the final seeding games and gave the atmosphere a March Madness feel. That’s a welcome reprieve from what’s usually a very boring end to the regular season. My hope is they make it a four-team tournament in each conference with a double-elimination format for the No. 7 and No. 8 seeded teams while 9/10 need to win two games to get in.

6. The Suns were the surprise of the bubble with an 8-0 run but missing out on the playoffs for them could be a blessing in disguise. Since the lottery standings were frozen before the NBA restart began, Phoenix will maintain their No. 10 slot in the draft lottery later this month despite finishing the season ahead of San Antonio, Sacramento and New Orleans in the standings.

7. Assuming the Grizzlies do not move up into the top-4 in the lottery later this month (2.4 percent chance) the Celtics will have the No. 14, 26 and 30 overall picks in the 2020 NBA Draft. It will be the second straight year the Celtics enter draft night with three first-round picks. I’d bet the farm that they don’t use all three on players that will be on the roster next season.