Hold on Red Sox, fans. Just two more weeks to go.
No, the 2020 season hasn't been (further) shortened, at least not yet. But some relief is on the way.
In this upside-down year where the calendar means little (Hockey in August! College football in March!), the trade deadline is Aug. 31, which means than in just two short weeks, the Red Sox have an opportunity to get worse in order to someday get better.
Like everything else that's been upended by the pandemic, it's impossible to know how this going to play out. Will the trade market being busier than usual? What kind of players will be most sought after?
Here's your early guide to what might take place and what the Red Sox will be -- or rather, should be -- focused on.
WILL IT BE AN ACTIVE MARKET?
That depends, and a case can be made either way.
On the one hand, there are some surprise teams in contention. Surely, no one expected the Baltimore Orioles, Miami Marlins, Detroit Tigers or Colorado Rockies to be in position for the post-season, but if the season were to conclude this weekend, every one of those team would qualify.
For the Orioles, Marlins and Tigers, all in the middle of planned-out rebuilding, it's highly unlikely they would be tempted to take a short-cut and sacrifice a player they're counting on for the future, just for the chance to qualify for an expanded playoff format.
Similarly, even quality, contending teams might be reluctant to made trades. First, just four weeks will remain in the regular season after the deadline, lessening the impact of an acquired player. Ordinarily, a team obtaining help at the deadline would get two months of regular-season games.
Secondly, all teams -- even those finishing first -- must win a best-of-three series to advance to the Divisional Series. So, imagine that a team with designs on winning it all -- say, the Yankees or Dodgers or Twins -- make a trade at the end of August for a key piece, only to run into a hot team in the first week of October and sent home after just two or three games. That would be a big investment for almost no return.
On the other hand, there may be some teams who believe that an appearance in the postseason would help gin up support for next year. A team like the Tigers, which hasn't sniffed the postseason since 2014, or the Rockies, who haven't won a postseason game since 2009, might see the benefit of giving their fans a playoff team.
WHAT KIND OF PLAYERS WILL BE IN DEMAND?
Again, the calendar enters the equation here. Teams will understandably be reluctant to mortgage the future for a mere 25 or so September games and no more than two playoff games guaranteed.
In that sense, the typical deadline deal -- contender ships several prospects for an established rental player headed for free agency -- might not be a workable model this time around. Imagine trading for a starter headed for the market, someone like Mike Minor. The acquiring team would be getting a maximum of five September starts, and as few as one postseason start. How many teams would want to give up two prospects, with the potential of 12 years of control at the major league level, for such a slight return?
"I'd be surprised if we saw many of those rental deals this year,'' said one talent evaluator. "It's just not worth it.''
In all likelihood, clubs will instead focus on players who may be under control for at least another year. That way, the acquiring team could justify sacrificing a young player or two, knowing that the veteran being obtained could play a role in 2021, too.
WHAT ROLE WILL MONEY PLAY?
As always, a significant one. But perhaps more than usual.
The pandemic, the shorter schedule and the lack of fans at games have led to substantial losses for a number of franchises. For some, those losses may be measured in nine figures.
Accordingly, there may be teams eager to unload some bigger contracts in an effort to achieve payroll relief. This is especially true for aging players who are in some decline, but still have significant value or skill.
Those sorts of deals may allow teams will some payroll flexibility to address some immediate needs without having to give up a whole lot in terms of player cost in return.
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- Xander Bogaerts. Signed to a below-market deal, the longest-tenured player on the roster, and only now entering his prime (he'll turn 28 in October).
- Rafael Devers. For the second straight year, he's started slow -- both at the plate and in the field. His defensive lapses can be maddening, but there's no disputing his raw power and offensive skills.
- Eduardo Rodriguez. Some of this is health-related since Rodriguez is sidelined for the remainder of the season with myocarditis, a byproduct of his battle with COVID-19. No one is about to make a deal now for him. But Rodriguez could serve as an anchor to a rebuild rotation starting in 2021 and although he's eligible for free agency after 2021, has indicated a desire to get an extension done.
- Christian Vazquez. Vazquez is signed to a deal that is even more club-friendly than the one signed by Bogaerts and has emerged as one of the better catchers in the game. Also, the Sox are without any in-house any alternatives to replace him in the short-term.
