NBA Notebook: 10 telling stats about the Celtics play in the bubble

The Celtics are more than halfway through their seeding games in the Orlando bubble, with plenty of good and bad trends mixed in during the team's 3-2 performance thus far. Let's take a look at some telling numbers for key players of the rotation and how they could impact the Celtics heading into the postseason next week.    

+10.3 net rating for Rob Williams: Outside of the final minute of Tuesday’s loss against the Heat, the second-year center did not see the floor in Boston’s first three seeding games in Orlando. Brad Stevens saw enough defensive struggles over the C’s 1-2 start that he gave Williams a chance against the Nets with the second unit and the big man has done nothing but make the case for more opportunity. His +10.3 net rating over 31 minutes is the highest mark on the C’s roster as he was on the floor for a pair of game-changing runs against the Nets and Raptors. He’s knocked down 11 of his 12 shots in Orlando, providing a surprise offensive boost around the rim while contributing to Boston shoring up their defense with the reserves in the middle. After opening up the seeding games as the No. 4 center on the roster, a strong case now that he could be the first big off the bench until further notice.

“He’s way more comfortable with what’s expected of him at both ends of the court – getting better in a bunch of the little things,” Stevens said Saturday. “He’s always been a great vertical threat, he’s playing very hard, doing a very good job in our coverages. It’s a matter of experience, and hard work. He’s done a lot of hard work. His attitude has also been very good. He didn’t play in any of the first three games, or not much, and that’s a huge part of it. He’s ready for when his number is called.”

Williams has also helped Boston’s offense rise up to No. 2 overall in Orlando through Saturday with his size and vision.

“He’s just so bouncy and quick off the floor as well as being as tall and long as he is, so he definitely provides a rim threat for us,” Gordon Hayward added. “He’s also another big that can pass, and we can use that - whether it’s back doors on the wing or just reading different things, he’s got a really good feel for the game.”

With a pair of crafty and tough big men on the schedule this week in Nikola Vucevic and Jonas Valanciunas, Williams will have a pair of good tests to prove his strong outings were not just a flash in the pan.

8 3-point attempts per game for Jaylen Brown: The swingman has come a long way from being a lottery prospect with a huge question mark about their jump shot coming out of Cal. Less than four years later, Brown is firing away like he’s Steph Curry (from a volume standpoint) in the bubble, leading the team with eight attempts from downtown per game over Boston’s 3-2 start. The high volume is a welcome sign since Brown has been taking advantage of countless open looks created by any number of his teammates slashing through the paint and drawing help. Those uncontested shots have helped Brown knock down 45 percent of his 3s despite the increased volume, setting the tone for Boston’s offensive firepower. He’s been a surprise leader in scoring (22.2 ppg) thanks to this efficiency and that’s helped Boston’s offense pick up from where it left off before the hiatus.

5.2 free throws per game for Gordon Hayward: One of the things that had diminished for Hayward since returning from a catastrophic ankle injury over the past two years was his ability to get to the line. That was one of his greatest strengths in Utah yet this year, he was only fourth on the team in attempts per game with 2.7 per game, more than a 50 percent decline from his best seasons in Utah. While Hayward isn’t getting a big share of shot attempts in Florida after hot starts from Tatum and Brown, he is showing some increased aggression in the paint, leading the team with 5.2 free throw attempts per game. This has been a weak part of Boston’s offense for the past two seasons (getting to the line) but the C’s have used Hayward’s additional aggression to help catapult them in a top-10 team at getting to the line. On nights when the 3-point shot isn’t falling in the postseason, Hayward’s ability to draw contact in the paint will be one of the team’s best weapons at keeping them in games.

52.6 percent shooting for Kemba Walker: The All-Star incredibly is shooting it just as well from 3-point range (52 percent) as the field in his first four games in Orlando. His minutes limit has kept his attempts per game on the low end (9.5 per game) compared to other starters but Walker’s shooting touch was the biggest cause of concern for this team before the hiatus. He hadn’t shot above 50 percent from the field in two straight games since mid-January once his knee struggles popped up before the season hiatus. However, Walker snapped out of that slump in Orlando with two straight 50+ percent performances and has shot above his season average from the field (43 percent) in all four games. That type of consistency made him an All-Star earlier this year and will add a dynamic threat for 35+ minutes per game once he gets his minutes limit up.

3.6 assists per game for Jayson Tatum: The modest mark still leads the Celtics in Orlando so far and is more than double his season average from his rookie year. As opposing defenses key more on him by throwing double teams at him in the paint and out of the pick-and-roll, Tatum is getting better at finding his open teammates on the perimeter.

“Teams are gonna bring him a lot of attention, especially if he’s scoring in iso situations, so being able to make the right open play is important,” Hayward said earlier this week. “For him to be able to do that makes us a lot better. We need that from all of our guys.”

The Celtics improved to 13-0 on the season Friday night when dishing out 27 or more assists in a game so Tatum chipping in a few each night will go a long way on that front and make the C’s offense more explosive in the process.

42.9 percent 3-point shooting for Daniel Theis: The German center had a resurgence in his perimeter shooting before the shutdown back in February and it has carried over to Orlando so far. He has knocked down 3s in four of his five games in the bubble, punishing teams that elect to keep their big men in the paint to protect against drives from Tatum, Walker and company.

“We encourage Theis any time he’s open, any time he has a look to shoot it,” Tatum said after Friday’s win. “We believe in him, and it just makes us that much more dynamic when we have five guys out there who can shoot beyond the arc. When he’s knocking it down, it makes us harder to guard.”

10 points per game for Brad Wanamaker: Amid all the excitement about Rob Williams and Romeo Langford delivering strong efforts off the bench in the past week, the steady contributions of Wanamaker have been largely overlooked. His double-digit scoring average through five games has this team averaging six players in double figures every night despite the fact Marcus Smart is struggling with his shot. Wanamaker has picked up the slack on that front and regained some of his early-season momentum by both finishing well inside the arc (58 percent from the field) and getting to the free-throw line 2.4 times per game. That combined with the fact that he’s the best free-throw shooter in the NBA this season, has helped turn Boston’s bench from a concern to a positive so far for the team in Orlando.

12.7 minutes per game for Enes Kanter: The veteran center has actually been largely productive in his minutes, shooting 72 percent from the field while posting 7.5 points and 4 rebounds a night. However, perhaps in a nod to his defensive liabilities that will be targeted heavily by opponents in the playoffs, Stevens has turned to Theis and R. Williams for the brunt of the team’s minutes in the last two games, with Kanter earning just his second DNP-CD of the season on Friday night. He’s going to be of use to Boston if they face off with Joel Embiid in a first-round series but otherwise, he may need Williams to falter to have any chance at getting his regular bench minutes back.

30.3 percent shooting for Marcus Smart: Despite a sensational offensive start in the bubble against the Bucks, the reserve guard’s shooting has fallen off a cliff in the last four games. He’s just 3-of-22 from the field over that span and 2-of-12 from 3-point range, dragging his season average down to 37 percent from the field. This hasn’t been much of a drag on Boston’s offense so far since Smart’s keeping his shot attempts per game at a reasonable level but it’s a slump the coaching staff will want to see him snap out of before the postseason hits so opposing defenses will have to think twice about leaving him open on the perimeter.

90 percent of shot attempts from 3-point range for Semi Ojeleye: The third-year forward has been on the fringes of the playoff rotation for the time being in Orlando but he’s stayed in his lane so far in Orlando on the offensive end. 18 of his 20 attempts so far have come from 3-point range and he’s knocked down a solid 44 percent from 3-point range. Whether or not he will be called upon the playoffs remains to be seen with Boston’s core wings taking on a heavier minutes load but Ojeleye is doing his best to do what the coaching staff wants of him: Take and make open 3s.

Ben Simmons likely out for the season

The Sixers already thought they lost Ben Simmons for the season due to a back injury back in March before the season hiatus gave him an extended chance to recover. However, that comeback was short-lived in the Orlando bubble as the team announced on Saturday that he will undergo surgery on his left knee to have a loose body removed. Sources told Adrian Wojnarowski that he’s expected to be done for the season, leaving Philly without one of their All-Stars for the postseason.

The injury changes the dynamics of what was once a scary first-round matchup for the Celtics in the 3/6 bracket. Now, Philadelphia is a team that lacks shot creation and one of their best perimeter defenders without Simmons in the fold, perhaps making them the most enticing matchup in the first round for Boston over a red-hot Pacers team and a Heat squad that is the best 3-point shooting team in the Eastern Conference.

However, a slumping Heat squad and the upcoming schedule indicate that Boston’s first-round opponent may not be decided until the final seeding game in the bubble. A look at the current standings shows how tight the race is for the 4-6 spots.



Miami and Indiana hold the tiebreakers over Philly (who has one more game remaining than both squads). However, two head-to-head matchups loom between Miami and Indiana still, which will open the door for the Sixers to move up if they finish with a 3-1 record or better. That won’t be easy for Philly to pull off though without Simmons since they are facing a pair of teams playing for their playoff lives (Portland, Phoenix) in their next two games before a couple of formidable opponents (Toronto, Houston) that may or may not be resting their top players.

For now, my money is on Philly staying in the No. 6 slot, but the C’s scouting staff will be busy getting preparations ready for all three teams in the next week with so much uncertainty about how they will finish.

Grizzlies headed for a play-in game

Memphis pulled off a gritty win against the Thunder, their first in Orlando on Friday which helped solidify their hold on the No. 8 seed for the time being. However, with three teams within two games of them in the standings, it’s all but a certainty now that there will be a play-in matchup between the Grizzlies out West between the eventual No. 9 seed next weekend.

Memphis will have the advantage of only needing to win one game in a hypothetical play-in scenario (No. 9 seed will need two wins) but they will have to do it without second-year standout forward Jaren Jackson Jr. who was lost earlier this week to a meniscus tear. The Celtics will have a chance to push the Grizzlies closer to the No. 9 seed on Tuesday night in their head-to-head matchup in Orlando in what should be the final tune-up for Boston’s starters before the postseason.