NBA Notebook: Can Celtics dodge first round date with Sixers?

After the first three days of seeding game action in the Orlando bubble, we’ve been able to get a glimpse of all 22 teams on the hardwood for the first time in four months.

Before the seeding games began, the Celtics were favored to hold onto the No. 3 seed in the East and draw the Indiana Pacers in a first round matchup for the second straight season. However, a string of results over the weekend in Orlando has started to open the door to more possibilities for the C’s, including what most consider the worst-case scenario for Boston in the first round: A date with the Philadelphia 76ers.

To get a better sense of what to watch for the East over the coming two weeks as well as single out key matchups for the playoff race, let’s check in on where the East playoff picture stands and what options the Celtics may consider when it comes to seeding positioning down the stretch.

No. 1 Milwaukee (54-12)
6.5 game lead over Toronto
Overview: The Bucks never really had anything to play for in their seeding games since one more win or a Raptors loss will officially lock up the top seed in the East for them this postseason. That will give them the flexibility to rest rotation players as they choose and ease back injured/recovering players like Eric Bledsoe, Pat Connaughton and Marvin Williams (back) into the rotation. They will want to build guys up to a usual playoffs minutes load but the sense of urgency won't be there for them to win games outright compared to other teams.
Key games from C’s perspective: 8/6 vs. MIA, 8/13 vs. MEM
Analysis: The Heat are knocking on the door of the No. 3 seed already so the C’s might need some help from the Bucks in this matchup to hold onto it. How motivated the Bucks will be in this matchup is less clear. The same goes for the Memphis matchup as the Celtics stand to benefit from the Grizzlies falling into a playoff play-in scenario out West.

No. 2 Toronto (47-18)
4 game lead over Boston (C’s have 2-1 edge in head-to-head with one game to play)
Overview: A healthy Toronto squad made an impressive debut on Saturday night in bubble play by running away from the Lakers in the second half in the midst of a 15-point win. Like the Bucks, the Lakers will have limited motivation in Saturday’s game after a win over the Clippers in the bubble opener essentially locked them into the No. 1 seed out West. Still this Raptors team looks healthy and they will be looking to face an inferior East opponent on paper (Orlando) by locking up the No. 2 spot rather than risk rolling the dice with a far more talented opponent like the Pacers or Sixers.
Remaining schedule: vs. MIA, vs. ORL, vs. BOS, vs. MEM, vs. MIL, vs. PHI, vs. DEN
Analysis: A win over the Celtics on Friday would wrap up the No. 2 seed and the tiebreaker but that may not even be necessary if the C’s stumble at all before then. Making up four games in the standings with just seven to play will be nearly insurmountable for the C’s without a complete collapse from the Raptors. It’s a tough schedule overall with five over .500 opponents but expecting them to have a record worse than 3-4 feels like a reach. The Raptors still will have some influence on the rest of the East standings with matchups looming against the Heat on Monday and the Sixers on August 12th. Both outcomes could impact the C’s first-round matchups from both sides of the bracket. That Friday 8/9 matchup against the Raps for Boston will be a nice tuneup but probably won’t have any serious implications on the No. 2 seed with the way the seeding games have started. It’s simply too big of a hill to climb for Boston unless they run the table.

No. 3 Boston (43-22)
4 GB of TOR, 1.5 games ahead of MIA
Overview: The Celtics got their toughest matchup on paper out of the way in the opener but that doesn’t mean holding onto the No. 3 seed will be easy. The Heat came out of the gate with a win in one of their tough games over the Nuggets, which has suddenly made Tuesday’s matchup with the C’s one worth watching. The one thing Boston has in its favor here is having played one more game than the Heat before the eight bubble games happened. That fact renders any potential tiebreaker between the two teams meaningless since they won’t finish with the same number of games played (Boston will have 72, Miami 73)
Remaining schedule: POR, MIA, BKN, TOR, ORL, MEM, WAS
Analysis: It does not look imposing but there are going to be some motivated teams (POR, ORL, MEM) that are fighting for their playoff lives in those matchup. The Wizards and Nets game should be gimmes but every other opponent should pose a challenge. If the C’s fall on Tuesday night to the Heat, all bets are off in regards to them locking up the No. 3 seed before the end of the seeding games. Brad Stevens will have some very interesting choices to make in regards to resting his starters at that point, since it’s entirely possible that dropping down to No. 4 could benefit the C’s for their first-round matchup (if Pacers stick at No. 5). That would force Boston to face Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference Semifinals but that’s a road the C’s are going to have to go through either way. A 5-2 finish or a 4-3 overall (including a win over Miami) should lock up the No. 3 seed. Otherwise, that spot should be still up for grabs heading into the final week of seeding games.

No. 4 Miami (42-24)
1.5 GB of BOS, 2 games ahead of IND
Overview: The Heat are healthy in the bubble despite a couple late arrivals to Orlando and they dispatched an undermanned Nuggets team on Saturday afternoon to move within striking distance of the C’s. Technically, they could still fall anywhere from 3-6 in the East standings (just three up on PHI) but they will be very much in control of their destiny in regards to seedings with three of their final seven matchups coming against the Pacers (x2) and Celtics.
Remaining schedule: TOR, BOS, MIL, PHX, IND, OKC, IND
Analysis: The Heat have handled the Sixers quite well this year (3-1) so it’s unlikely this team would be afraid of a matchup against Joel Embiid and company in the first round from either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed. That would set the stage for some great drama as well with Jimmy Butler taking on the team that passed on giving him a max deal last summer. While this schedule looks like one of the toughest on paper out of any team in the league, a closer look indicates opportunity hear for Miami. The Bucks won’t be playing for anything in their matchup later this week while the Pacers are likely to be without Domantas Sabonis (foot) for both of those matchups. Those matchups suddenly pull the three-seed within reach if the Heat can take down the Celtics on Tuesday and pull off a 5-2 record the rest of the way. Beating the C’s won’t be easy since they will be playing that game on the second half of a back-to-back with Toronto first up. Two straight losses to the Raptors and Celtics would dash No. 3 seed hopes quickly and lock them into the 4/5 slot.

No. 5 Indiana (40-26)
2 GB of MIA, 1 game ahead of PHI
Overview: The one team everyone in the 3-6 East slots wants to play after Domantas Sabonis went down with a foot injury. However, the Pacers decided to create some havoc in the standings after surprising the world and taking down a healthy Sixers squad Saturday night thanks to a 53-point explosion from TJ Warren. That victory gave them the head-to-head tiebreaker over Philly, bumping their lead to what amounts to 1.5 games in the standings with seven to play. Malcolm Brogdon (sore neck) missed Saturday’s opener as well but the change of heart by Victor Oladipo to play in Orlando gives this team some added upside in the wake of a growing list of injuries
Remaining schedule: WAS, ORL, PHX, LAL, MIA, HOU, MIA
Analysis: Three of the easiest opponents in the bubble await the Pacers over the next week so that should help them maintain their edge over the Sixers for the No. 5 seed early on. The Lakers already have their top seed locked in so they should be playing it easy with minutes for their top guys in that matchup while the Rockets may be settled into a seed out West by the second-to-last game as well. All of this points to the Pacers’ fate being determined by those head-to-head matchups with the Heat. That should preclude the Celtics from knowing whether Indiana is likely to slot into the No. 5 or No. 6 seed until just for the playoffs, a scenario that could prevent Boston from trying to position themselves for the most ideal first round matchup.

No. 6 Philadelphia (39-27)
1 GB of IND, 3 GB of MIA
Overview: The good vibes from the Sixers revamped lineup plans after the hiatus lasted exactly one game after an undermanned Pacers squad pulled off the upset Saturday night. Indy punished the Sixers size by going small for much of the second half, which helped them erupt for 46 points in the fourth quarter. Despite playing Ben Simmons primarily at power forward, a lack of depth the Sixers backcourt did them in as Shake Milton and Raul Neto combined for just two points over 30 minutes. Al Horford was a team-worst -26 as well despite spending the majority of his time at backup center. The setback dropped the Sixers road record to 10-25 overall, reaffirming their status as the worst road team in the bubble outside of the Washington Wizards.
Remaining schedule: SAS, WAS, ORL, POR, PHX, TOR, HOU
Analysis: This is the easiest schedule in the bubble over the next five games but four of those opponents should be highly motivated fighting for their playoff lives or avoiding a play-in scenario. The motivation for the Sixers on the other hand may not be there for a group that has lacked chemistry all year long. Catching the Pacers is certainly doable but the No. 4 seed is already out of reach with the Heat holding a three-game lead and the tiebreaker edge. That means a first-round matchup looms with either the Heat or Celtics no matter what for Philadelphia and the odds say right now that’s it’s likelier to be Boston. The Sixers' preference should be to face the Heat, who they overpowered with their size in last year’s postseason but with Butler switching sides this time around and the Sixers only replacing him with Al Horford and Josh Richardson, neither matchup is ideal.

Final Thoughts

The Celtics have never been in the business of playing their way into a first-round matchup during the Brad Stevens era and it’s a mentality that has come back to harm them in recent years. While the Sixers still look like a mess at times on the floor, they are the scariest potential first-round matchup for Boston and should be treated as such. Standings watching will be pivotal in the next week to try to determine which way Philly is heading in the standings. If they are trending towards the No. 5 seed, the C’s should play hard to lock up the No. 3 spot with time to spare to rest the starters in the finale. If the Sixers’ struggles continue, leaving them in the No. 6 spot, a case can be falling to the No. 4 seed for Boston would be the preferred scenario, even though it would mean seeing the Bucks a round earlier. If the C’s decide on that path, look for the last two games to be filled with young guys playing to allow for the dual benefit of rest for the starters as well as dropping down to the No. 4 seed. Either way, the opening weekend in Orlando has the East playoff picture looking incredibly unpredictable for the 3-6 slots, which should make for an entertaining finish.

Other NBA News and Notes

—Clippers big man Montrezl Harrell could miss several more games in the Orlando bubble following the death of his grandmother. He remains outside of the bubble with his family and has the support of the team to take the time he needs away to grieve. The Clippers are currently projected to finish with the second seed in the West but remain without Lou Williams for another three days due to a 10-day quarantine.
—Former Celtics assistant Tom Thibodeau was introduced as a head coach this week in New York via a Zoom presser. It’s the third head coaching gig for Thibodeau since 2010 but brings him back to his former home as he was a Knicks assistant under Jeff Van Gundy from 1996-2003. “I think I experienced it during the ’90s that there’s no better place to be than Madison Square Garden,” he said. “And so I love challenges, I love that city, I love the arena, I love the fans and I’m excited about the team.”
—The Magic are worth keeping an eye on in Orlando after the return of Jonathan Isaac to the lineup, giving them a healthy roster for the first time since midseason. They dominated the depleted Nets on Friday and could be a tough first round out for the Raptors in the 2/7 matchup.
—The NBA and their TV partners are still tinkering with arena noise during broadcast but they really need to reduce the crowd noise as it overwhelms the broadcast at times and makes it impossible to hear whistles.