When the epitaph for the 2020 Red Sox is written -- a cynic would suggest it's being drafted as you read this -- it's likely one recent quote from manager Ron Roenicke will crystallize their predicament.
Asked the other day about the possibility of replacing Ryan Weber (11.57 ERA, 2.249 WHIP) in the team's rotation, Roenicke, in a brutal assessment of the team's pitching depth, asked: "Who do we have that we can say we're going to put in that's going to be better than Ryan?''
Well, now. That about sums it up now, doesn't it?
No disrespect to Weber, but he's about to turn 30, is on his fourth organization, and sports a career ERA of 5.41. And mind you, through no fault of his own, Weber occupies not the fifth spot in the rotation, but the third.
It's not Weber's fault that Chris Sale and now Eduardo Rodriguez are down for the season, or that David Price was shipped out. But that's where things stand, speaking volumes about the talent deficiency in the Red Sox pitching staff.
Occasionally, Weber can be counted on to throw off an opposing lineup's talent with his off-speed stuff. But the lack of velocity, in a game where the average fastball is now 92 mph, is a difficult hurdle to overcome. There's virtually no margin for error. When Weber is precise, he can trick a lineup a few times through; when he's the least bit off with his command, balls are scorched all over -- and out of -- the ballpark.
There are alternatives available, and, no we're not talking about a journeyman like Chris Mazza, Austin Brice and Matt Hall. While they may have a few more mph on their fastballs than Weber, they each lack above-average stuff.
The Sox could, in theory, turn to some younger arms. This week, it was revealed that the Sox are stretching out a few of their younger arms at their alternate training site at Pawtucket's McCoy Stadium, including Darwinzon Hernandez, Bryan Mata and Tanner Houck.
Presumably, that's with an eye toward long-term development, though at the very least, Hernandez could be part of the major league roster inside of another 10 days or so, available for multiple bullpen innings, or potentially, as a bulk option paired with an opener.
Hernandez has a half-season of major league service under his belt, and the Sox have wisely not closed the door on giving him another look-see as a start. That's a wise approach, since it would be silly to relegate Hernandez to a permanent bullpen role unless or until he disqualifies himself as a potential starter. He clearly needs to improve both his efficiency and command, but there's wipeout stuff there that could be harvested for the rotation.
With Houck and Mata, the issue is one of experience. Houck spent the final third of last season in Pawtucket, mostly in a bullpen role. Mata, meanwhile, finished last year at Double-A Portland. At just 20, it didn't go well, with a 5.03 ERA in his 11 starts.
The danger in introducing not-ready-for-prime-time pitchers to big league hitters is obvious: permanent damage to their confidence and stalled development.
"Tanner, in terms of his progressions, he's probably a little closer,'' said Chaim Bloom. "If he's going to have as much success as he possibly can in the big leagues, we're going to need to help him with his plan and his effectiveness in attacking lefthanded hitters. So that's an emphasis in Pawtucket, something we're going to be able to work on in targeted fashion. He certainly has the stuff to do it and the ability to do it. How well he does it is going to determine his ultimate ceiling.''
Mata, meanwhile, was impressive in a recent simulated game at McCoy, but is more raw.
"His upside is tremendous,'' said Bloom. "We just need to make sure we're continuing to develop the total pitcher. Sometimes when you have a guy whose arm is that good and whose stuff is that tantalizing, it can be really tempting to take shortcuts. And I don't mean timetable. I just mean in terms of the development and what you're trying to help him to do and I think it's really important not to do that if we're going to help somebody reach their ceiling.''
Hernandez, who is the most advanced of the three, is another possibility.
"How we progress him is going to depend on a number of factors,'' Bloom said. "But I think we'd like to see him have a chance to help us in a bit larger role than just short relief.
There are risks involved here, naturally. Exposing Houck and Hernandez to major league lineups could retard their development and even put their careers at risk.
Still, given how things have begun in the first week or so of a season, it's clear that the Red Sox can't keep running out the likes of Weber and Hall and hope to remain competitive. They're mere placeholders and regular turns from them will neither help the Sox content, nor, likely, reveal them to be better than they've shown.
Even if the Sox have piggybacked, say, Houck and Hernandez at three innings each in the beginning, that would seem to be better utilization of the 2020 season. Protect their workloads and their confidence, yes, but get them pointed in the right direction. Begin the evaluation process and find something worthwhile out of a season that, for the moment, seems otherwise headed nowhere fast.
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