What will the Celtics' playoff rotation look like? Examining five early trends

Maximizing the Celtics roster is something Brad Stevens has been focused on all year long but it’s probably going to be his biggest question mark heading into the seeding games Friday. A healthy roster has been tough to come by for the Celtics all year long with just 17 total games the team has had with its full complement of starters available.

While Kemba Walker may not yet be 100 percent from a minutes standpoint by the end of this week, the team is trending towards having everyone ready to go as they finish off eight regular-season games. The results of the first two scrimmages the C’s have played mean nothing in the big picture, but the way the Celtics are trying to play is worth noting. Figuring out the lineups the C’s are trying to mix and match with is crucial now since it should allow the team to find a comfort level and continuity heading into the postseason.

There should be plenty of tinkering in the days to come but I went back and dove through the first two scrimmages to find some trends that are worth noting when the Celtics were playing all of their regulars in the first half of each game.

Non-Kemba lineups vs. OKC (first half)

10 minutes of Smart/Brown/Hayward/Tatum/Theis (-5)
2 minutes Wanamaker/Brown/Hayward/Ojeleye/Kanter (+1)
3 minutes Wanamaker/Smart/Tatum/Ojeleye/Kanter (0)
1 minute Wanamaker/Smart/Tatum/Ojeleye/Theis (+3)
6 minutes Smart/Hayward/Brown/Tatum/Theis (-4)

Celtics lineups vs. PHX (first half)

5 minutes of Kemba/Brown/Hayward/Tatum/Theis (-1)
5 minutes of Wanamaker/Smart/(Hayward or Tatum)/Brown/Kanter (-2)
4 minutes Walker/Smart/Tatum/Ojeleye/Theis (+5)
5 minutes (Smart or Wanamaker)/Brown/Hayward/Tatum/G Williams (+7)

A few observations based on these combinations

1. Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward are getting extended early run together (+6.6 net rating): This isn’t one of the best two-man duos on the team when it comes to net rating but they are complementing each other a lot better than last year, particularly on the offensive end. The C’s score 114 points per 100 possessions when the pair is on the floor and both are able to be featured more on the offensive end when Tatum/Kemba are getting an early rest. Brad Stevens seems to be focused on putting complementary pieces around them which brings us to our next observation.

2. Enes Kanter and Brad Wanamaker are the first two players off the bench together after Marcus Smart: Two of Boston’s regular reserves all year long have been paired up together both times they’ve entered the game in Orlando. The data indicates this is the right call since the Celtics are outscoring opponents by 8.3 points per 100 possessions with both on the court together. When paired with three starters, both guys won’t be stealing shots from the core offensive weapons. Instead, Kanter just rolls to the hoop and crashed the offensive glass when available. Wanamaker serves as a catch-and-shoot threat when Smart is running the point on top of being another capable ballhandler. Neither guy is flashy but these two should get the first crack at minutes together off the bench, except on nights when opposing benches go small at center (which could keep Kanter on bench). Tuesday's matchup against the Rockets will be telling in how Stevens handles that potential mismatch.

3. Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker are being paired to carry the bench offense together in the second quarter: This could change again when Walker gets a fuller minutes load but the Celtics offense has reached its highest level (116.8 points per 100 possessions) with this duo on the floor all year long. Stevens likely believes he can get away with hiding inferior offensive players around the pair (Ojeleye, Theis, Smart, etc.) by keeping Walker and Tatum together. Keeping defensive-minded players like Smart and Ojeleye alongside Tatum also allows the C’s to hide some of Kemba’s limitations on the defensive end while Boston’s other versatile starters (Hayward/Brown) get some rest.

4. Three of the C’s five best players are going to be on the court at all times: Stevens hasn’t been able to pull this off much this season due to numerous injuries up and down the roster but even with Walker on a strict minutes limit, he kept three of Walker/Smart/Hayward/Brown/Tatum on the court for 22 of the first 24 minutes in the first half. Once Walker is playing with a larger minutes limit (closer to 25-30), the C’s should be able to go a full 48 minutes with three of those guys sharing a floor at all times. That should put to bed the heavy bench unit we have seen at times from Stevens during his last couple of years when there have been just one or sometimes zero starters on the floor. That strategy should help prevent any extended offensive lulls that could plague a second unit with limited and inconsistent offensive firepower.

5. Romeo Langford and Grant Williams loom as wildcards to this rotation: We saw both make measurable impacts against the Thunder in Sunday's scrimmage, albeit in different situations. It’s worth noting with Williams that the only minutes he’s played so far with the regulars has been at the center spot. He’s seen success paired up with Kanter in the frontcourt during the season with him playing power forward (+20 net rating in 251 minutes!) but that we’ve seen almost none of that in the first two games, perhaps a sign that it won’t be used much in the seeding games as the rotation tightens. Langford did not get any run with the starters in his debut Sunday but he figures to potentially slot in for Ojeleye or Wanamaker for some rotation minutes in certain matchups if the C’s want to go with a quicker defender for the perimeter. Tuesday night’s scrimmage against the small-ball Rockets will be a good indicator on that front for him. The same goes for Williams at backup center since Kanter’s minutes will likely be slashed if he’s forced to guard a stretch-5.