McAdam: Ten questions about the 2020 Red Sox

Welcome to the Great Unknown, or you might call it, the 2020 Major League Baseball season.

It will be a year in which there are significant rule changes, and the ability to properly distance yourself from others will be at least as important as hitting the cutoff man.

What are you going to see? And perhaps more to the point: how long are we going to see it?

Frankly, who knows?

But here are 10 questions about the Red Sox.

1. Will they be worth watching?

That depends. How much do you like baseball? And how much is your interest tied to how well your favorite team is going to do?

Because, to be honest, the Red Sox are unlikely to be much better than average. Their starting rotation -- to start the season, at least -- profiles as one of the worst in the game, and as unpredictable as the season will surely be, that's almost never a recipe for a successful season. Here's how the Sox have fallen since late last fall: when they signed Martin Perez, it was with the intention of having him be the team's No. 5 starter; when the season begins Friday, he'll be their No. 2

All of which isn't to suggest that they won't be entertaining. The Sox will score a boatload of runs, which, frankly, they'll need to offset the boatload the pitching staff will allow. But any lineup that features Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo and J.D. Martinez will be fun to watch.

2. Can they use being underdogs as a motivational tool?

Sure, it's hard to think of the Red Sox as plucky underdogs. They're a big market team with a history of having some of the biggest payrolls in the game and four championships to their credit in the last 16 years.

But this year is different. They traded off their best player and lost their best starting pitcher for the season (and some of next). When it comes to roster talent, they're clearly behind two teams in their own division and at least four other American League teams. In a best-case scenario, they're in the middle of the American League pack.

But in short seasons, form and expectations go out the window. And don't discount the fact that the team will likely play the "disrespect'' card to its benefit: "No one thinks we can do this ... Nobody believes in us except ourselves.''

Will it work? One thing to consider is, thanks to the pandemic, the team won't spend a lot of time physically together. They're not gathered in the same clubhouse and they're taking BP in shifts. That cuts down on the sense of camaraderie that is often necessary for a team to jell.

But it's telling that this is already something of a theme.

"I've heard some comments already (from the players),'' said Ron Roenicke. "And I understand why those teams are rated above us. They're really good teams and you've got to think they're in a position to play really well. But we're hoping to surprise people. I think they're already talking about it.''

3. Is Roenicke the right man for the job?

It was something of a surprise when Chaim Bloom chose Roenicke as the man to replace Alex Cora. But given the current environment, Roenicke's hiring may be particularly well-suited for the 2020 season.

Roenicke has spent 40 years in the game, with stops at nearly every level and every imaginable role from minor leaguer, major league, minor league manager, major league coach and major league manager. As unpredictable as this year may be, there's little that Roenicke hasn't already experienced in his career.

He projects stability and calm, two qualities very much welcome as the game embarks on the unknown. He doesn't get rattled and he doesn't swing from emotional highs and lows.

"He's a mature guy who exudes calm,'' said one baseball person from outside the organization. "I don't know if he'd be choice as a No. guy for the long-term, but for this year, he may be perfect for what they need.''

4. Who else might be ready to help out the rotation?

Most of the Red Sox best pitching prospects -- Jay Groome, Bryan Mata and Noah Song -- are not yet ready to contribute, and in Song's case, not able to contribute in 2020. So that takes a lot of potential candidates off the table.

A year ago, the Sox got some out-of-nowhere contributions from both Josh Taylor and Darwinzon Hernandez, but both were out of the bullpen and it's far easier to get surprises in small sample sizes. Finding someone to do the same as a starter is far more difficult.

Still, the possibility of a mystery contributor to the rotation remains. Lefty Matt Hall, a pickup over the winter from Detroit, looked sharp in the spring and again in Summer Camp and has positioned himself to, at the very least, be part of the opener experiment.

Tanner Houck won't make the Opening Day roster, but based on his experience and progression, isn't far away from getting a look. If the Sox turn to someone like Houck, however, it will likely be in the second half of the season and only if they've played themselves out of the running.

Any number of long shots could step forward and either earn a bigger role through the opener spot, or emerge as a dependable and valued part of the tag-team setup.

Stranger things have happened and the Red Sox will welcome any help they can get.

5) Is there an under-publicized factor that could benefit the Red Sox?

Yes -- defense.

In a 60-game season, the smallest of details will take on additional significance, and for all their potential deficiencies, the Red Sox will catch the ball.

Mitch Moreland and Jose Peraza are above-average at first and second base respectively. Bogaerts may lack the range of other more athletic shortstops, but he's become more dependable on balls he gets to. Devers made great strides after the first month last year, and ended up second among all major league third basemen in defensive runs saved on balls hit to his left.

In the outfield, all four regulars -- Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr, Kevin Pillar and Verdugo -- are potential plus defenders at their spots, though Verdugo will surely have a learning curve in playing Fenway's expansive right field.

Behind the plate, Christian Vazquez has a tendency to be sloppy at times blocking pitches, but his arm strength is enough to discourage many base-stealing opportunities.

In short, the Sox aren't sub-average anywhere on the diamond. They'll convert balls in play into outs and a couple of superior throwing arms in the outfielder (Bradley, Verdugo) will limit teams from taking extra bases.

7. Is there a key offensive player who could spell the difference?

Yes, Benintendi. And not just because he's going to hit leadoff a lot and set the tone for the top of the lineup -- though that's important, too.

Benintendi stalled in 2019. His strikeouts climbed to an unacceptable level, his walks dropped and his power dipped. If he can get produce an OPS of .850 or better, the lineup will be deeper and more formidable.

On the other hand, if he fails to improve on his disappointing season a year ago, the Red Sox will need to find another option for the leadoff spot and will have to give Pillar more playing time than he might warrant at this stage of his career.

8. Are there obvious candidates to deal at the deadline?

Yes, several.  Let's start with the eligible free agents-to-be, a list which includes Bradley, Moreland and closer Brandon Workman. All three could have value.

In a perfect world, of course, the Red Sox will find themselves still in the thick of the playoff race, forcing Bloom to determine whether to sell for the future or add for the present.

It's doubtful Bloom will see anything to encourage him to become an aggressive buyer at the deadline. The Red Sox aren't about to jeopardize their rebuild-on-the-fly for the sake of a fluky playoff spot.

But if the Sox are hopelessly out of the race, Bloom could be sorely (and reasonably) tempted to move everything on the roster that's not tied down.

9. Could any rookies make an impact?

Potentially. Bobby Dalbec is the team's best power prospect, but for now, there's no obvious spot for him in the lineup. A natural third baseman, he's blocked by Devers, and across the diamond, where he's played some, there are more established players, too.

That could change over time. Say Peraza struggles with the bat, and the Sox feel the need to play Michael Chavis more at second base. That, in turn, would open up the need for a righty hitter to split time with Moreland at first.

Or, if the Sox drift out of the race, Moreland could be dealt at the deadline and Dalbec could see increased opportunity that way.

If this is truly a bridge year and the Red Sox don't have any plausible paths to the playoffs, it would be a shame to see the 2020 season, however brief, go by without any advancement for the prospect who's closest to making his debut. One way or another, the Sox need to get a look at Dalbec in the majors this season.

10. OK, so what happens? Where do the Red Sox finish?

It's pretty difficult to construct a scenario in which the Red Sox finish ahead of either New York or Tampa Bay, both of whom have vastly superior pitching.

As noted, the Sox will score plenty of runs, and they'll be helped by the fact that one-third of their games (20) will be against the God-awful Orioles and the nomadic Blue Jays. That will help boost their win total.

On the other hand, another one-third of their games will come against the Yankees and Rays, and many of those will come in the first few weeks when the Red Sox will be without three important pitchers (Rodriguez, Taylor and Hernandez).

Let's give them third place in the division and 31 wins. Those 31 wins, rounded up, would translate to 84 over a full 162-game season -- or exactly the number they're earned last season.