Some of the likely details of the NFL's play to return to play during the pandemic have started to emerge in the past few days. Even though we don't have exact details, we have some strong indications.
Namely, via Tom Pelissero:
- 80-man rosters (instead of 90);
- Zero exhibition games;
- Long ramp-up to contact, only 14 days in pads before first game;
- Eight of 32 teams have had their infectious disease emergency response plan approved by the NFLPA. The others, including the Patriots, are under review.
https://twitter.com/NFLPA/status/1285984050948247558
How will each of these developments affect the NFL and, specifically, the Patriots? Let's go through them, starting with our guesses on the players who may be on the outside looking in at camp before it even starts. This comes on the heels of our first 53-man roster prediction of the new season. We'll build off that:
PLAYERS MOST LIKELY TO BE RELEASED
A few things go into this, namely one big factor we have no idea about: the health of players, and the shape they are currently in. Players who have to be on PUP (like, say, Sony Michel coming back from ankle surgery, or players who don't pass the conditioning test) would not count toward 80 players.
Going on the theory everyone will be ready to go and in shape, you have to start with the undrafted free agents who received the least amount of guaranteed money, and then go to positions that are extremely deep.
WR Jeff Thomas ($2,500 guaranteed)
QB Brian Lewerke ($2,500)
WR Sean Riley ($15,000)
DT Courtney Wallace ($20,000)
QB J'Mar Smith ($30,000)
I could definitely see the Patriots just going with the three veteran quarterbacks since how many throwing reps are there really going to be with a truncated camp? But you never know if Cam Newton doesn't work out, or the team thinks Brian Hoyer is expendable ... I think one rookie QB sticks for now and the other four go. I know some people wanted to see what Jeff Thomas could do, and maybe that talent ceiling wins out, but he's out for now on my list.
Among the players at the bottom of deep positions:
TE Rashod Berry (UDFA)
S Adarius Pickett
WR Devin Ross
WR Quincy Adeboyejo
CB Lenzy Pipkins or Myles Bryant (UDFA)
Berry is a very limited prospect and is basically crossed out by Jake Burt. ... Patriots have too many at safety and receiver. ... Same with cornerback. Someone has to go.
That leaves one spot.
I think Nick Coe has too much upside at a position of need that could use numbers if Deatrich Wise is traded or released.
Is it possible Jermaine Eluemunor is released right now to recoup his cap space? Yes, especially if the Patriots absolutely will not entertain trading Joe Thuney at any point.
I think one of the linebackers can go, among Terez Hall and Kyahva Tezino. Hall's been in the system and that might just be enough in this offseason.
My final list:
TE Rashod Berry (UDFA)
WR Jeff Thomas (UDFA)
QB Brian Lewerke (UDFA)
WR Sean Riley (UDFA)
DT Courtney Wallace (UDFA)
LB Kyahva Tezino (UDFA)
S Adarius Pickett
WR Devin Ross
WR Quincy Adeboyejo
CB Lenzy Pipkins
DOES SHORT CAMP/NO PRESEASON GAMES HELP OR HURT PATRIOTS?
From a content/interest viewpoint, obviously I hate that there will be zero preseason games. I thought one was fair as a dress rehearsal but I get it.
Still, you really don't know anything about a player until you see them in a game. Jimmy Garoppolo wasn't the greatest practice player, but he showed out in the games and that has carried over in his career. He's one of those who is better with the lights on.
I think the proposed practice/game schedule hurts Cam Newton and helps Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer.
Hoyer, by far, knows more about operating the offense under center — there's a lot to learn with checks and audibles, and Stidham needed a real offseason to make much progress there. Who are the Patriots going to trust the most to get them into a good play at the line of scrimmage — one of the tenets of this offense? Right now it's Hoyer. But the x-factor is how much they shorten up the playbook due for everyone to the practice conditions.
The offensive line returns, and the Patriots are likely to go with 11 personnel in the opener — RB James White, TE Matt LaCosse, WR Julian Edelman, WR Mohamed Sanu and WR N'Keal Harry — that knows the offense. In two of the first three regular-season games (Dolphins, Raiders) the Patriots will face teams that have a lot of new personnel on defense. If the Patriots have an advantage in those games of experience on offense, does it make much sense to go with a QB in Newton who brings the rest of the unit down in experience (in theory)?
I don't know, but it's a question the Patriots will be asking heading into the opener. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a heavy rotation at all the positions — including quarterback — in the first half of the season. I could see Newton coming off the bench for, say, the first four-five weeks and then the Patriots making a decision on the starter at quarterback during the Week 6 bye week.
The bottom line is, everything is on the table in this very strange and unique season. What's past is not prologue, not this season.
TWO WEEKS IN PADS
I'm not really bothered by this because everyone is in the same boat. I would expect the Patriots to have two hitting scrimmages during this time (Day 7, Day 14). Players do you have to get used to hitting to acclimate their bodies to the season.
Yes, it's going to lead to very sloppy play (line play, tackling) for about the first 8-9 weeks of the season.
In general, I'd rather have Bill Belichick than anyone else in these circumstances. I would expect a lot of hill runs because Belichick knows conditioning will be important coming out this.
CAM AND EDELMAN
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
Patriots
Bedard: Which Patriots players won't make it to an 80-man roster? How does short camp affect the QBs?
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