Patriots' Road to 53, v. 20.01: Trading a veteran, and are some 2019 draft picks in trouble?

Well, we can almost smell the fresh-cut grass of training camp (we think). NFL camps will open up at some point, and then the competition for the final roster will be on.

We went through the roster, and we completed our initial 53-man roster for the Patriots.

A few caveats:

1. Obviously this is unlike any other offseason, so we're not exactly sure what kind of shape anyone is in, nor are we sure which players will start on the Physically Unable to Perform List. We're going with the thought that everyone will be healthy at some point.


2. Everything will be decided on the field. Doesn't really matter what kind of workouts someone had in the offseason — SoAndSo is poised for a breakout season because they've never worked harder says the trainer who's being paid by the player! ... How many times have we heard that over the years? — if you don't pick up the scheme, or show that you're coachable, or mesh with your teammates. So much is unknown.


3. Many final roster spots are determined by the overall health of the team ... whenever we get to September.

That being said, there's a ton of great competition this year in camp. Don't think the end-of-the-roster depth is quite is good as last year, but there will be some compelling battles.

Obviously the change in quarterback will have a huge impact on the makeup of this roster, no matter who winds up being the starter. Will they take fewer receivers than in year's past if the QB can't air it out like Brady (will the team ever hit 45 or 50 pass attempts in a game?). Already looks like they'll take more tight ends/fullbacks. Does the offensive line need beefing up? How many veteran defensive players are they going to keep around this year?

Love this time of year. This is the fun stuff.

So let's get on with the initial offering. The highlights:

• I'm trading Deatrich Wise to the Lions or the Dolphins, where he would be a better fit with his former defensive coordinators, who will allow him to play more of the 4-3 end he's suited for. Patriots need more speed on the edge, and beef inside.


• I'm releasing or trading one 2019 draft pick, fourth-round pick Hjlate Froholdt, and I contemplated trading another in third-round pick Damien Harris. Oh, this is controversial? How many of you had Bill Belichick trading 2018 second-round pick Duke Dawson in his second training camp? Oh, and three more 2018 draft picks (Christian Sam, Braxton Berrios and Keion Crossen) were either cut or traded last year as well.

One thing to keep in mind: I wouldn't get too caught up on not releasing players in order to recover compensatory picks (and this also would increase the chances of a Joe Thuney trade). With the Patriots having

a boatload of cap space next year, the chances are strong they're going to sign a couple of big-time free agents and they would would offset any free-agent losses. Meaning, they're likely not getting that third-round comp pick for Thuney so the Patriots might be willing to take less if another option at guard steps up.

In any event, on with the carnage...

NOTES

• Not sure I've ever seen the Patriots bring this many receivers to camp (well, at least receivers who are believed to be functioning and ready to go for camp ... ahem, Demaryius Thomas and Cam Meredith). This tells me a lot of spots are up for grabs. Certainly, Jakobi Meyers and Marqise Lee are on the chopping block, and maybe Mohamed Sanu (that $6.5 million in cap space would be nice should he better differentiate himself) should Lee or a UDFA pop.


• The opposite holds true at offensive tackle. There's only four true tackles. The Patriots think they're good with their top three.


• If the Patriots feel they need to make a trade in this camp, let's hope they do better than Jermaine Eluemunor (fourth-round pick) and Korey Cunningham (sixth), who don't make this squad.

THIS OR THAT

Players/positions that I see in direct competition:

OGs Hjlate Froholdt or Michael Onwenu: The Patriots wouldn't have drafted three interior players if they thought they were set on the interior. One of the two recent draft picks wins a spot. Projected winner: Onwenu.

Cs Najee Toran or Dustin Woodard: Toran is believed to be the leader at backup center (a vital position given David Andrews' past health issues), but the seventh-rounder will be given every opportunity to lock that up. Projected winner: Woodard.

S/STs Cody Davis or Terrence Brooks: Two veteran safeties who star on special teams enter the ring. Only one exits. You don't bring in another vet safety unless you want to see if you can find better. Please, for the love of all that is holy, don't tell me Davis is here to take the Nate Ebner Memorial Roster Binkie spot. Projected winner: Davis.

LB/STs Cassh Maluia or Brandon King: Nobody's really sure why King has stuck around, for now, his sixth season ... it's time to get younger and cheaper here. Please. Projected winner: Maluia.

RB Damien Harris vs. roster spot (and maybe J.J. Taylor): The Patriots could easily use a few more roster spots (like another receiver or a blocking tight end) so if Harris doesn't show he's ready to go and prepared, then he might get the Duke Dawson treatment (high draft pick traded for used footballs). Projected winner: Harris ... but he better pop early.

Edge Jon Simon or Shilique Calhoun: Patriots, who added draft picks Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings, could gain nearly $2 million in cap space by releasing Simon, or $1 million for Calhoun. I've heard Calhoun's name more this offseason ... he was impressive last year before injuries. Simon might win just because he's always there, and Belichick obviously loves those types on the edge. Projected winner: Calhoun by a nose.

TRADES

DE Deatrich Wise to Lions or Dolphins: Love the guy, his infectious attitude and work ethic (he could seriously be a captain this year) but he's been a poor fit for this scheme two years running. He has some value for a 4-3 team ... he'll be a good player somewhere else.

Also possible: Joe Thuney, Damien Harris, Jon Simon, Hjlate Froholdt, Ryan Izzo, Derek Rivers, Terrence Brooks, and Sony Michel.

LAST FIVE OUT

Edge Jon Simon: Will probably make it, somehow. Belichick loves those veteran players who can set the edge consistently but the Patriots need to get faster in the front seven, not older.

WR Marqise Lee: Purely a numbers/health thing. He hasn't played a lot of football and he's attempting to come back from a serious injury.

OG Hjlate Froholdt: He just needs to beat out a rookie who had no offseason. It should be clear from Day One or see you later.

S Terrence Brooks: They added two safeties (Adrian Phillips and Cody Davis) in the offseason so someone has to go.

DE Nick Coe: The UDFA out of Auburn is a total boom or bust product. They could definitely use his 6-4 1/2, 280-pound frame up front, though.

LAST FIVE IN

LB Cassh Maluia: A late-round pick, but Belichick had his eye on him for a reason (and he did).

OG Michael Onwenu: His late draft spot does not afford him a roster spot, but this team now has an addiction to Michigan players (when were they good)?

WR Jakobi Meyers: It's either him or Lee or both ... or neither. Love the kid and he's the heir to Julian Edelman at slot right now, unless he's beaten out by UDFA slots Will Hastings and Sean Riley.

RB Damien Harris: Crowded and stagnant backfield since it's obvious Rex Burkhead is days away from getting another ridiculous contract extension (sarcasm included for free).

LB Scoota Harris: Received the biggest guarantee among the UDFAs ... he's direct competition for Ja'Whaun Bentley, who better find his rookie form quickly.

Questions, comments? We've got a Q&A today.