NBA Notebook: Which Celtics could thrive in road bubble environment?

There are many unknowns about what the environment will be like inside the Orlando bubble, considering it will be a unique experience for every player at the NBA level.

However, one clue for how Celtics players may be able to perform in this type of unfamiliar atmosphere will be their performance away from the TD Garden this season. As a team, the C’s were one of the more formidable road teams in the Eastern Conference all year long, with a 20-12 record away from the Garden — the third-best mark in the East.

What players were at the forefront of that success for the C’s? Let’s take a deep dive into some of the road splits for notable players on the roster to get a better sense of what players have a better shot at raising in their game in a neutral environment or are at risk for significant drop-off.

STOCK UP IN BUBBLE?

Gordon Hayward 

While the former All-Star has been a net-neutral performer when it comes to home/road splits in his career, he’s seen a dramatic improvement in his efficiency away from the Garden this year. Not only has the scoring (18.1 ppg) and rebounding (6.7 rpg) gone up despite reduced playing time, but his offensive aggressiveness improves as well, particularly in the paint, where he gets a bump in free throw attempts per game (2.9/FTA)

This increased production combined with a jump in shooting percentage (62 percent true shooting) has helped Hayward produce some of his best outings of the season away from the Garden, with six of his eight double-doubles coming on road turf. While there is a considerable dip in his 3-point shooting on the road (34 percent) vs home (43 percent), the rest of his game gets a nice boost. Seeing that Hayward is one of the players that has consistently stood out in practices this season according to team sources, a quieter environment could serve him quite well.

Jaylen Brown

The athletic wing has only been a Celtic for three-plus seasons, but he has never been afraid of taking a big shot away from the Garden. Some of the biggest of his career have come away from the Garden, as he has hit several 3-point daggers in tough road environments like Utah, Denver and Detroit over the past two seasons.

The numbers match up on the eye test on that front for the 23-year-old, as Brown’s 3-point shooting jumps up to 40 percent away from the Garden, compared to just 35 percent at home. It’s a trend that’s held constant for his entire career — while Brown may be more aggressive attacking the paint in the Garden (5.1 free throw attempts/G), he’s a far more consistent outside shooter on unfamiliar turf.

Semi Ojeleye

The third-year forward is a one-trick pony on the offensive end of the floor (60 percent of his shots are from 3-point range), but that one trick surprisingly improves away from the Garden. Ojeleye is a 39.6 percent shooter from 3-point range on the road this season, compared to just 34 percent at home. That trend that falls in line with his career numbers from deep as well (37 percent on road/30 percent at home). Ojeleye isn’t a lock for major minutes off the bench in Orlando, but with so many rookies across the bench depth chart with questionable jumpers, his track record here could catapult him into a consistent role.

Brad Wanamaker

The oldest member of the Celtics has just played two seasons in the NBA, but playing in tough arenas all across Europe throughout his 20s has made NBA arenas especially friendly to him, particularly the season. Wanamaker’s production is across the board better away from the Garden, with a notable jump in points, rebounds, assists and 3-point shooting (42 percent) despite even playing time in his splits. The Celtics as a team also perform far better with him on the court (+4.9 net rating) versus home (+0.2 net rating). As one of the surprise solid contributors this season off the bench for Boston, Wanamaker’s track record indicates that his game will welcome a lengthy stay away from home.

NO IMPACT

Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum

The mark of a great player is being able to perform at an elite level no matter the environment. To their credit, Tatum and Walker have checked those boxes this season.

Tatum’s shooting actually gets slightly better on the road from the field (46 percent), while his 3-point shooting remains consistent (39 percent). His splits stay relatively flat across the board, beyond a slight bump in his rebounding and small decrease in assists. The fact that these trends remain in place during the first three years of his pro career is a very promising sign.

While Walker has traditionally been a better player at home during his career, those numbers have leveled off during his one season in Boston, as his play (when healthy) has been consistent on home and road turf. The main concern with him will trying to ensure that his left knee gets healthy, rather than a drop-off in his numbers away from the Garden.

STOCK DOWN IN BUBBLE?

Marcus Smart

Smart’s defensive toughness can never be questioned no matter the location, but the same can’t be said for the Celtics offense when Smart is on the floor. While Boston’s offense remains elite with him on the court at the Garden, it largely nosedives with the 26-year-old guard running the show on the road, despite improvements to his offensive game in the past two years. The reason? Smart’s efficiency falls off a cliff away from home.

His 33 percent shooting on the road is a 10 percent drop-off from home and his 3-point shooting (31.3 percent) falls below replacement level as well. With that comes a decline in his production itself (nearly four points per game) and the trickle down impact on Boston’s team offense is glaring. The C’s shoot 32 percent as a team when Smart is on the court in road games compared to 39 percent with him on the bench. Smart’s offensive rating also dips by 16 points (to 101) in enemy turf. Whether he can gain a strong comfort level and turn the Orlando courts into a home away from home remains to be seen, but the C’s offense will need him to remain elite on that end of the court.

Daniel Theis

The starting center is actually more active in the interior in road games, gobbling up 1.4 additional rebounds a night compared to his home splits. However, role players usually see their outside shooting dip away from the friendly confines of home and Theis is no different here. He goes from being an above-average 3-point shooting at the Garden (36 percent) to a pitiful one on the road (27 percent). Theis had improved from downtown in the second half of the season (37.5 percent from deep) and with no other potent big shooters on the roster, the coaching staff is going to need to see some improvement on this front to force opposing defenses to respect his range.

Enes Kanter

It’s a bit of a surprise to see a nine-year veteran in this column, especially since his career he’s had relatively flat home/road splits during stops in Utah, Oklahoma City, New York and Portland. However, he’s been a different player at the TD Garden this year, feeding off a raucous energy in the building on most nights.

The elite offensive numbers at home for his limited minutes on the court (9.5 ppg on 62 percent shooting) take a nosedive considerably on the road despite even playing time (6.8 ppg, 49 percent shooting). Seeing that Kanter isn’t much of a jump shooter, even from the midrange, shooting below 50 percent as a big man from mostly inside 10 feet is a concerning trend. Some of those subpar numbers may have been impacted by Kanter’s hip injury in February and March (road-heavy schedule for C’s), but he’s going to have to produce closer to his career numbers on the road in order to justify regular minutes in Orlando.

Grant Williams

The rookie power forward has struggled on the offensive end all year long, but those struggles were compounded on the road so far this year. Williams saw a a five percent dip in his FG and 3-point shooting numbers away from home, dipping his already horrendous 3-point shooting mark on the year down to 22 percent. A team source in Orlando indicated that he’s shown some improved consistency from deep in the first week of camp, but he will need to show those gains in real games in order to play his way onto the floor in playoff matchups.

Other NBA News and Notes:

—The AP first reported on Saturday that the three exhibition games all 22 teams will play in Orlando starting this week will only be 40 minutes. The main reason? Most teams don’t have their full rosters available in Orlando, which would put extra onus on the back-end of rosters in the meaningless contests. The Celtics have been on the few teams in the NBA with their full 17-man roster available in Orlando.

—Tough break for Michael Beasley, who tested positive for coronavirus after agreeing to terms with the Nets on a contract for the remainder of the season. Instead of waiting for him after a lengthy quarantine and five-game suspension, the Nets opted to sign former Sixers guard Justin Anderson instead.

— Zion Williamson and Montrezl Harrell are the two biggest names that have had to leave the Orlando bubble already due to family emergencies. Both big men intend on returning to their respective teams, but their status for the seeding game openers will be in question if they don’t return to Orlando by the end of the week. ESPN’s executives will be rooting wildly for Williamson to return promptly after the Pelicans were put in the NBA restart opening game against the Jazz on July 30th.

—As I noted in last week’s notes, Victor Oladipo remains a name to watch for the Celtics in the Orlando bubble after the guard hinted he may change his mind about playing in the Orlando bubble this week after a string of strong practices.

“My body is feeling good,” Oladipo said this week. “It was hard for me to assess where I was at from the long layover and obviously corona(virus), couldn’t really control that. But now you know, coming down here and getting some practices in, getting my feet under me, going out there and playing with the guys, there’s a possibility that I could play. I am just reassessing myself and my body every day.”

—Tough break for former Celtic Rajon Rondo, who underwent successful thumb surgery to repair a broken bone earlier this week. It’s the second time in three years he broke the thumb during the past three seasons, last doing it as a member of the Bulls in the first round series against the Celtics. His 6-to-8-week recovery timetable gives him a chance to rejoin the Lakers at some point during the second round of the playoffs.