Taking a second look at Jaylen Brown's extension deal amid uncertain NBA financial landscape

The future of the economic landscape in the NBA remains a bit of mystery in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. League sources indicate the league will be losing upwards of a billion dollars in potential revenue for this season alone for playing without fans in the Orlando bubble. That trend appears set to continue into next season with 82 regular season games likely to be held without fans in the stands, barring the introduction of a vaccine or therapeutics by the end of 2020.

The direct trickle-down financial impact for players in the NBA remains to be seen in full. There will undoubtedly be negotiations between the league and players union in regards to how to handle the loss in revenue as it pertains to the upcoming salary cap for the 2020-21 season, but one league source told BSJ they believe the cap will hold steady at $109 million. Spreading out the cap losses over a few years rather than a one-year freefall is probably a wise way to insulate future free agents and teams (via luxury tax penalties) from taking too big of a hit in the short-term.

The Celtics already have a hefty financial commitment for 13 players in the 2020-21 season, with the vast majority of that money tied up with three players (Walker, Hayward, Brown). That trio is set to make a combined $91 million next season alone, making up roughly 67 percent of the team’s payroll for next season.

Jaylen Brown will be the player receiving the newest big payday out of the bunch after agreeing to a four-year, $107 million extension in October. Brown’s All-Star level play through the first five months of the 2019-20 season made that deal look like a bargain for Boston by the time the regular season was suspended in March. The changing financial landscape of the NBA now begs the question though, as submitted by one reader: Would the Celtics have been better off waiting on re-signing Brown until after this season under the current economic conditions?

After crunching the numbers with the new projected cap number, the answer is still a resounding no. Players with under six years of experience are eligible to make 25 percent of the cap as a max salary upon hitting free agency. That comes out to a $27.2 million salary for the 2020-21 season.

Currently, Brown is only set to make $23.3 million in 2020-21 even when you account for the likely incentives in his contract. That number could rise again if Brown makes an All-NBA team (an unlikely incentive) but would still fall short of the $27 million max in that case. So the C’s are still getting Brown here on a bargain deal compared to his production — even with the leveling off of the cap.

Would Brown have commanded max money this summer during a changing economic landscape? One look at a dismal free agent class in 2020 says a resounding yes. Outside of Anthony Davis, Brown likely would have been the most sought after free agent this offseason if he hit the open market. A reduced salary cap would have shortened the list of suitors that had max cap room, but rebuilding teams like the Hawks, Pistons and Knicks would have loved to bring in a 23-year-old in the midst of his prime to build around.

Those squads won’t get that opportunity though after the Celtics front office bet big on Brown’s potential back in the fall. Even with the uncertainty across the NBA landscape right now, that calculation that Brown’s value would probably only go up after this season led to Ainge striking a rookie extension for the first time since 2009 with Rajon Rondo. That Rondo deal turned into an absolute gem for the next five years and the value on Brown’s pact with Boston is set to follow a similar path, even as spending is forced to be reeled in around the league.