Victor Oladipo became the biggest name to elect to sit out the NBA restart this week for a reason other than a current injury. The two-time All-Star returned for the Pacers on January 29 this season after missing nearly a year with a torn quad tendon suffered during the 2018-19 season. He had played inconsistently in the two months since his return but did pour in a season-high 27 points against the Celtics in the last Pacers game before the hiatus (March 10).
However, it’s evident that Oladipo wisely kept a view of the big picture for himself in deciding to stay on the sidelines while still traveling to the Orlando bubble to work out with his teammates.
“I really want to play, and as a competitor and teammate this is tearing me apart,” Oladipo told Shams Charania this week. “I feel like I’m at a great place in my rehab and getting closer and closer to 100 percent. With all the variables, from how I have to build my 5-on-5 workload back up, to the increased risk of a soft tissue injury which could delay my rehab, and the unknown exact set up of the bubble I just can’t get my mind to being fully comfortable in playing.
“I have to be smart and this decision hasn’t been easy, but I truly believe continuing on the course I’m on and getting fully healthy for the 2020/21 season is the right decision for me.”
One of the biggest factors at play here for Oladipo is the Pacers' current standing in the East as a non-contender (tied for 5th in East) combined with his current contract. The 28-year-old is in the third year of a four-year, $84 million deal, setting himself up for a crucial contract year in 2020-21. The jam-packed calendar expected for next season in a December-July window will put extra onus on the bodies of players taking part in Orlando, especially with just a mini-offseason this fall.
From that standpoint, it’s easy to see why there was little upside for Oladipo to compete in a shortened ramp-up window that the Orlando bubble will provide. The Pacers don’t really present the possibility of contending at the moment, especially since they are also without starting shooting guard Jeremy Lamb (torn ACL) already. So even if Oladipo put together a strong campaign down south, it wouldn’t really mean much if he wasn’t able to stay healthy through all of next season heading into his own free agency. The odds of him doing that while playing close to 12 months straight of basketball probably aren’t great coming off a serious injury like a torn quad tendon.
Instead, Oladipo can continue his training with the team and strictly focus on maximizing his health and fitness for next season, leaving him in a far better position to cash in during the summer of 2021 as he eyes the first max deal of his career. Oladipo is also eligible for an extension this fall so it’s possible he will try to lock up a long-term deal with the Pacers to give himself some extra security before entering a contract year. That option is not available for him ahead of the Orlando restart, otherwise, that might have been an incentive the Pacers used to try to get him to play.
When looking at Oladipo’s situation, it’s evident that the NBA got very lucky here with how many stars around the league have long-term contractual security locked din already. Some of the best names that were expected to be on the market this summer (Kyle Lowry, Draymond Green) already agreed to contract extensions this summer. Other big names that could hit the market have the luxury of a hefty player option (Gordon Hayward, Anthony Davis, DeMar DeRozan) to protect them in case of a serious injury.
However, can you imagine if this was the 2018-19 season with the bubble setup? Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Jimmy Butler, Klay Thompson, Khris Middleton, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, Malcolm Brogdon and Tobias Harris all would have been heading into unrestricted free agency with the vast majority of those players on contenders. Almost half of the NBA would have been set to hit free agency as well. How many of those guys would have opted to sit out to ensure they had big paydays waiting rather than spend three months in an Orlando bubble with a heightened risk of injury and being forced away from family? Not all the big names on this list would have opted out but there would have been an understandable handful that declined to take part, which would have watered down the product and legitimacy of the 2020 NBA championship. Key role players waiting for their first big paydays (like Davis Bertans) would have sit as well.
Luckily for the league, outside of Oladipo, every big name who is healthy enough plans on taking part in the bubble to date. While there are still a couple of names on the fence for borderline playoff teams (Bradley Beal, Spencer Dinwiddie) the majority of the NBA's best names have long-term financial security that is paying off for this situation. The main obstacle now will simply be keeping everyone healthy in Florida, from both injuries after a shortened ramp-up period and COVID-19 cases that could infiltrate the bubble and wreak havoc on team(s) during the postseason.
Here’s a look at key names that have opted out of the Orlando bubble to this point for non-injury reasons.
Portland: Trevor Ariza
Washington: Davis Bertans
LA Lakers: Avery Bradley
Dallas: Willie Cauley-Stein
Brooklyn: DeAndre Jordan, Wilson Chandler
Houston: Thabo Sefolosha
Celtics can rest easier holding onto No. 3 seed with Oladipo absent
The best-case scenario for the Celtics was always going to be avoiding a healthy Philadelphia 76ers team in the first round of the postseason. Moving up to the No. 2 seed is one way to ensure the C’s could avoid that matchup but the loss of Oladipo by the Pacers should no longer require that path.
The Pacers and Sixers are currently tied for the fifth seed in the East and the two teams will face off with each other when their Orlando bubble schedules begin on August 1. A win for the Sixers in that game would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indy but even if they fall short in that contest, the road looks clear for them to jump to the No. 5 seed with no Oladipo in the fold. The Sixers have the easiest schedule in the NBA in Orlando with five sub .500 teams on their schedule after the Pacers. It's also highly possible their two final seeding game opponents (Toronto, Houston) won’t have much to play for when it comes to seeding in those matchups, allowing them a great chance to move up in the standings to the 4/5 spot.
Barring a disastrous eight seeding games by Philly, the Celtics look likely to draw Indiana without Lamb and Oladipo in the opening round if they stay put in the No. 3 seed. While that is a little bit of a tougher matchup than a shorthanded Brooklyn or Orlando team in a hypothetical 2/7 matchup, the Celtics shouldn’t be as motivated now to climb up to the No. 2 seed with a weaker opponent likely waiting for them anyway in Indy.
NBA News and Notes
- Brad Wanamaker is the only Celtic set to become a free agent after this season, but that did not impact his decision to play in Orlando with the hope that he can prove himself as reliable bench contributor when the season resumed: “Obviously that’s in the back of my mind, but just going out there and trying to make the best of my time. Obviously, we’re all fighting for playoff minutes. Obviously, that’s something I want to do, I want to be in that playoff rotation. Just going out there and just trying to be consistent is the main key, and I think everything else will fall into place.”
- Here’s a look at the Celtics scrimmage schedule in Orlando. No broadcast announcement yet on where you can watch these games but it sounds like a few across the league will be televised.
Fri July 24th vs. OKC, 5 p.m.
Sun July 26th vs. PHX, 1:30 p.m.
Tues July 28th vs. HOU 8 p.m. - Gordon Hayward believes with a shortened training camp, there is going to be a huge emphasis on team defense in the bubble to build sustainable success for teams. “Without a doubt, the offense might be a little bit further behind since we haven't played together and been with each other. That takes time in a season to get your groove going so by the end of the year, you know the plays that work really well and where you are going to get your shots. You have this great rhythm you get into and zone you get into. I'm confident we will get into that but certainly that takes a little bit longer than the defensive end where I think our versatility will help us a lot and our depth should help us a lot, especially on that end. If our offense is not as crisp at first, we will give ourselves a chance by being really tough defensively. I think for sure, that will be an emphasis for us and for other teams as well.”
- Count former Celtic Al Horford as another sixer who will benefit from the four months off upon the season resuming later this month. “I probably wasn’t where I wanted to be,” he said. “I’m not going to make excuses but right now I’m in a much better place. The time off for me was beneficial. And getting to work now, the biggest challenge for us with the season coming back is doing everything at game-intensity level...Going from not being able to get in the gym to start working out individually, and when we get to Orlando, we’ll start doing it together and then a quick transition to games — it’s really a process. So for me it’s really making sure that I continue to make strides and that I’m at my best, more specifically when the playoffs are ready to go.” Horford dealt with knee and hamstring issues while playing in 60 of 65 games this season.
- Twenty-five NBA players and 10 staffers had recorded positive COVID-19 tests through Thursday according to a memo from the league. Landry Shamet is the latest notable name to test positive and he will likely be delayed from joining his Clippers teammates for training camp in Orlando as he recovers. Teams are set to fly down to Orlando from July 7-9.