The NBA became the first of the three major American sports leagues to put specific matchups on the calendar Friday night with their release of the eight remaining games for all 22 teams taking part in the Orlando bubble. We took a closer look at the Celtics schedule already this weekend but there are plenty of other races that will have a direct impact on the C’s and the league at large once games resume on July 30th. Let's get to all of them.
Race for 4-6 seeds (No. 6 seed is potential first-round opponent for Celtics)
4. Miami 41-24: Opponent winning percentage: .636, SOS Rank (2)
5. Indiana 39-26: .562 (13)
6. Philadelphia 39-26: .506 (21)
Analysis: When the NBA season was suspended on March 11th, the Celtics were lined up for a brutal first-round matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers in the 3-6 matchup. However, that’s a scenario that is unlikely to take place when taking into account the revamped schedules. Not only do the Sixers have a healthy Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons for the Orlando bubble, but they will also have the second-easiest schedule out of any team in the league, with five of those opponents coming against sub .500 teams.
The Pacers meanwhile face a middle-of-the-road schedule but will still be shorthanded in their frontcourt with starting shooting guard Jeremy Lamb (torn ACL). Victor Oladipo’s status for the season’s resumption is also up in the air, according to the former All-Star as he works his way back into form after a season-ending knee injury last season. The Sixers have not had much chemistry all season long but they are well-positioned here to move into the 4/5 matchup assuming they can take care of business against inferior teams.
No team in the league was hurt more by the shortening of the schedule than the Miami Heat, though. They went from having a league-average schedule to finish the year to the toughest slate in the NBA thanks to the fact than most of their subpar opponents won’t be qualifying to play in Orlando (the eight worst teams). That should provide the C’s with some confidence that they will be able to rest some of their talent liberally (if needed) and still hold onto the No. 3 seed thanks to a 2.5 game lead. A head-to-head matchup between the two teams in early August could make things tighter but only a disastrous eight games would put Boston at risk of dropping down to the 4/5 spot.
Race 7-9 seeds (No. 7 seed is potential first-round opponent for Celtics)
7. Brooklyn 30-34: .544 (19)
8. Orlando 30-35: .551 (16)
9. Washington 24-40: .578 (10)
Analysis: It’s a bit wild to see the 24 win Wizards still in the fold for a potential playoff spot here but they will have a tall task ahead of them to make up a couple of games in the standings to ensure they are within four games of Orlando or Brooklyn to force a play-in game scenario. Still, the road there will be challenging thanks to a top-10 toughest schedule along with the absence of sharpshooting big man Davis Bertans. If the Wizards don’t remain within striking distance of the Magic or Heat by game No. 8 against the Celtics, Boston could be facing a team with nothing to play for. That scenario could help the C’s lock up the No. 3 seed or put pressure on the Raptors in the chase for the No. 2.
If the Celtics do manage to play through way up in the standings to No. 2, the Nets look like the team with the inside track on the No. 7 seed. They may have lost the head-to-head tiebreaker with Orlando but their 1/2 game lead in the standings ensures that tiebreaker won’t come into play with both teams playing eight games in total. The Nets will remain without Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant but the Magic will also be down Jonathan Isaac who suffered a serious knee injury in January. His status remains doubtful after a lengthy period with no rehab supervision from the team in the midst of his recovery. Two head-to-head matchups at Disney between the Nets and Magic will likely settle the score here but the odds remain that the Nets have the inside track on that No. 7 spot, with five of their opponents being sub .500. Avoiding a first-round showdown with the Bucks will be a priority for Brooklyn/Orlando, especially since the opportunity of a play-in scenario exists.
West race for 8 seed (What’s the status of the Grizzlies pick?)
8. Memphis 32-33: .597 (6)
9. Portland 29-37: .600 (5)
10. New Orleans 28-36: .495 (22)
11. Sacramento 28-36: .529 (20)
12. San Antonio 27-36: .567 (12)
13. Phoenix 26-39: .589 (7)
Analysis: The Grizzlies were in line to finish the NBA season with the toughest schedule in the West before the shutdown hit and the degree of difficulty was weakened a bit with a few of those contests chopped off. At the least, they look like a lock for the play-in game as the No. 8 seed with a 3.5 game cushion over their closest suitors and a healthy Ja Morant returning to the fold. However, the challenging schedule on their docket will put this group to the test. Their first three opponents will be teams trailing them in the standings (Portland, New Orleans, San Antonio) which will guarantee desperate and hungry opponents immediately.
After that? Five above .500 teams will close out their slate, including the Celtics in their second-to-last game. Boston will have plenty of incentive in that contest to knock down Memphis lower in the standings to increase the odds of a better draft pick in 2020. The only break the Grizzlies will get among those eight games will come in the finale against a Bucks team that will have nothing to play for.
Based on the strength of schedule, the chief competition for the Grizzlies in the play-in game should be the Pelicans or Kings, who have two of the three easiest schedules in the bubble. The Blazers will have some added firepower returning to the lineup with Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins expected to be active but they lost a crucial wing piece once Trevor Ariza opted out of playing for personal reasons. The Spurs and Suns will be long shots to make a push for the No. 9 seed thanks to both squads missing key starters in LaMarcus Aldridge and Kelly Oubre Jr. due to injury.
Other NBA News and Notes
- The league confirmed on Friday it is exploring the possibility of having a summer league type of setting for the eight teams not invited to the Orlando bubble. The problem with said idea? Finding a reason for the players to go. Many guys will be heading into free agency this fall and there will be little/no incentive to get veterans to take part and risk injury/illness. Given the extensive planning that was required for Orlando and the coronavirus hot spots popping up around the country, can’t really see the NBA putting this together for meaningless games.
- Former Celtic Avery Bradley joined the list of players that won’t be taking part in the bubble (Davis Bertans, Trevor Ariza, Willie Cauley-Stein) due to personal reasons. The defensive-minded guard will be a big loss for the favorite in the West, putting lots of pressure on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Alex Caruso to fill the void on the wing from a ball pressure standpoint. The Lakers are rumored to use their roster spot to sign J.R. Smith to fill in, a curious choice since the team already has another veteran guard of a similar ilk on the bench in Dion Waiters. Waiters was signed in March and hasn’t suited up for the Lakers in a game yet.
- NBPA president Chris Paul brought up Jayson Tatum as a player that has been highly engaged in the planning process for the league from the players' end in a conference call on Friday. “We try to do as good a job as possible at making sure that we’re as representative as possible on our board. We have our executive committee as well as other committees, guys like Dwight Powell, Russell Westbrook, Jayson Tatum, Kyle Lowry, guys who we have called day in and day out just trying to figure out all the things that guys may need,” Paul said.
- Adam Silver on concerns about the spike of COVID-19 cases in Orlando leading up to the start of play: “In terms of choosing this location, it’s a fair question, whether if we were making this decision at this moment we would still choose Orlando, Florida. The only thing I’d say is because of the lead times, there is certainly an ebb and flow to this virus, and as I mentioned before, it’s on the rise in the majority of states in the United States right now, and my ultimate conclusion is that we can’t outrun the virus and that this is what we’re going to be living with for the foreseeable future, which is why we designed the campus the way we did and so that we are — it’s a closed network, and that while it’s not impermeable, we are in essence protected from cases around us. At least that’s the model.”
- A bit of shuffling on the roster for some East rivals over the past week while the transaction wire opened. Tyler Johnson was signed by the Nets, who waived Theo Pinson to open up space for him. Sharpshooting wing Ryan Broekhoff was signed by the Sixers as well for added depth on the wing.