It almost makes too much sense, right?
A Bruins team, looking to replenish its aging — but still effective — crop of star talent down the middle, opens up a new window of Cup contention thanks to a hometown product’s arrival.
Such a narrative played out two summers ago when Ontario native John Tavares opted to sign with the Maple Leafs, a free-agency coup that supposedly was going to jettison a young and talented Toronto squad into the upper tier of Cup contenders.
And now, with the Buffalo Sabres standing as nothing short of a dumpster fire these days, could there ever be a scenario in which star center — and North Chelmsford native Jack Eichel might be on the move?
Even though the 23-year-old franchise cornerstone is signed with Buffalo through the 2025-26 season, it feels as though something has to give within the next year or so between Eichel and the team that drafted him second overall during the 2015 NHL Draft.
Ever since Terry Pegula dropped $175 million to purchase the Sabres back in 2011, Buffalo's fans have been stuck on a seemingly never-ending carousel of misery — with the club shuffling through six head coaches, four general managers and zero playoff appearances since Pegula took the helm.
Whether it be poor drafting (rushing Casey Mittelstadt up to the NHL was an awful decision), poor cap management (forking over $72 million for Jeff Skinner) or horrendous trades (St. Louis appreciates the Ryan O'Reilly deal, by the way...), Buffalo has fumbled multiple attempts at trying to build a competent roster around Eichel, who has tallied 137 goals and 337 total points over 354 games in a Sabres sweater.
After another disappointing campaign in which Buffalo failed to punch a ticket into the 24-team expanded playoff field, a frustrated Eichel made it evidently clear last month that things needed to change in a hurry.
"Listen, I'm fed up with losing and I'm fed up and I'm frustrated," he said. "It's definitely not an easy pill to swallow right now. It's been a tough couple of months, it's been a tough five years with where things have went. I'm a competitor. I want to win every time I go out on the ice. I want to win the Stanley Cup every time I start a season . . . I'd be lying if I said that I'm not getting frustrated with where things are going."
https://twitter.com/Matt_Bove/status/1266054176385228808
Still, even with the 2019-20 campaign now in the rearview, the Sabres keep finding themselves in the headlines for all of the wrong reasons, with Terry Pegula and his wife, Kim, announcing this week that the Sabres let go of GM Jason Botterill, assistant GMs Steve Greeley and Randy Sexton and 19 other staff members — a wave of firings that sheared the Sabres' scouting staff down from 21 personnel to just seven.
Given that Eichel still has a ways to go before he enters free agency, it remains to be seen just how strong the trade whispers get this offseason. But, if Buffalo once again comes up short in 2020-21 and Eichel goes a sixth straight season without tasting playoff hockey, could the BU product potentially ask out?
If a player of Eichel's caliber was ever dangled out on the trade market, a feeding frenzy wouldn't be far behind.
Along with Eichel's impressive baseline numbers this past season (36 goals, 78 points, 22:06 ATOI over 68 games), the underlying stats also paint the picture of an all-world talent in transitional play — with only nine other forwards in the NHL holding a higher 5v5 carries/60 than Eichel's 18.35.
Given the tangible talent already present with Eichel — plus scores of untapped potential — don't be surprised if just about every other NHL club inquired if Buffalo ever kicked the tires on a potential trade.
Given Boston's hometown ties and the need to replenish its pipeline of pivots beyond both Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci — it's only natural to speculate about what kind of offer the Bruins could toss out in an effort to nab their next superstar.
https://twitter.com/FauxCentre/status/1257826714308063232
Still, as exciting as such a scenario could be, there are multiple roadblocks standing in the way of such a blockbuster — aside from the massive cost it would take to pry the star pivot out of Western New York.
The Timing
As we noted above, it would seem unlikely that Eichel would want to ask out of Buffalo this summer — especially with the pressure now on for new GM Kevyn Adams to right the ship in short order. Add in Eichel's support for Sabres bench boss Ralph Krueger, and odds are that Buffalo's top player would want another go-around before really evaluating his options as far as trades go.
From the Bruins' perspective, this upcoming offseason also isn't exactly the best time to pull the trigger on a franchise-altering move, especially with Krejci still under contract for one more season. Granted, Boston likely would have dealt Krejci back in 2018 had the B's managed to woo Tavares into inking a massive contract, but the preference for the Bruins would be to wait until the 2021 offseason — once Krejci hits free agency — to make a play for Eichel, rather than trying to find a suitor for their second-line center at the same time.
The Cap
As we've mentioned time and time again since the COVID-19 stoppage, we don't have any concrete details about what the NHL's salary cap situation is going to look like going forward. But it's a pretty fair assumption — given the massive losses in revenue over the last few months — that the cap ceiling isn't going to expand in the next year, with a flat cap limit of $81.5 million standing as a realistic scenario.
As such, Boston — even after getting out of the David Backes contract and saving some cash in the Danton Heinen / Nick Ritchie swap — is still likely going to be crunching the numbers this offseason to remain under the limit. However, even without a sizable increase in cap space, Don Sweeney should have plenty of flexibility in 2021 — especially with Krejci's $7.25 million and Tuukka Rask's $7.00 million set to come off the books.
https://twitter.com/bruinscapspace/status/1273256082362810369
As such, IF Boston managed to pull the trigger on a deal involving Eichel and slot him in Krejci's place starting in the 2021-22 season, Boston might have the fiscal breathing room to accommodate such a blockbuster deal. But, granted, it wouldn't come without a cost. While it remains to be seen what the future holds for Torey Krug beyond this season, it would seem that Boston could be constricted in the coming years if Krug re-ups on a new contract worth over $7 million annually.
Along with potentially letting Krug walk to have the available cap space, Boston also needs to remain cognizant that restricted free agents like Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo are due pretty hefty raises in 2022 and 2021, respectively. Again, we won't have a clear picture until the NHL releases the cap limit for the 2020-21 season, but let's be clear — it's not going to be easy for any Cup contender looking to take on Eichel's contract ($10 million annually through '26).
The cost
Isn't this what it all comes down to?
After getting absolutely fleeced by St. Louis when they dealt O'Reilly (Patrik Berglund, Tage Thompson, Vladimír Sobotka, a 2019 first-round pick and a 2021 second-round pick was the return), methinks Buffalo is going to be more vigilant when it comes to netting a proper return for a star center.
Of course, given Eichel's standing already as a top 15-20 player in the NHL, his age and contract, it's pretty much a given that the Sabres would expect a king's ransom for their franchise star.
Now, if Boston came calling following the 2020-21 season, what would a rebuilding team like Buffalo ask for?
- Draft capital is an obvious casualty of such a blockbuster, with Buffalo seeking a first-round selection in 2021 (and potentially even 2022) in order to replenish its prospect pipeline. (Toronto surrendered a pair of first-round picks to pry a 22-year-old Phil Kessel from Boston in 2009).
- Buffalo would also want a top prospect in any return for its franchise center. As luck would have it, Boston has prioritized pivots over the last couple of drafts — with Jack Studnicka obviously standing at the forefront when it comes to the B's prospect pool. Other promising centers in Boston's system include John Beecher and Trent Frederic.
- One or two NHL regulars — still young and under manageable contracts — seems to be a given here in terms of trade chips. Even though Boston would be wise to not part ways with a youngster like Charlie McAvoy, a player like Jake DeBrusk could be a target, given his age (24 in 2021), evident talent (averaged 23 goals last two seasons) and likely affordable contract after hitting restricted free agency in 2020. If Buffalo REALLY wanted to maximize its return in an Eichel trade, it wouldn't come as much of a surprise if the Sabres also snagged a defensemen from Boston — with Brandon Carlo standing as the obvious pick if McAvoy is off limits. Still, you'd think Buffalo would hold out here.
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Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, Corey Sznajder and Bryce Chevallier.
