Recently spent some quality time talking with Matt Manocherian and Aaron Schatz on their Off The Charts Podcast and they, specifically my guy Aaron from FootballOutsiders.com, brought up an interesting point about the 2020 Patriots that I really hadn't considered from 1,000 yards and it's a valid point of discussion:
From Schatz: "This is a little preview for the FootballOutsiders.com Alamanc — we're probably going to lower on the Patriots than anybody else. And the big reason why is the expected defensive regression. And the big reason for that, other than defenses just generally regress, is the Patriots were an average defense before last year when they were the best defense in the league. The first reason is they depended a lot on turnovers. The second is we have this stat that is "approximate value over replacement" of the players lost. The Patriots will have the most player talent lost on defense of any defense over the last 16, 17 years that we've built our projection system on. Now, that's not a guarantee ... but this team has lost a ton of veteran guys. How are they going to replace them?"
Here's the entire podcast (where we talk about what to expect from Jarrett Stidham and how much did the Patriots really try to give Tom Brady weapons in his last couple years with New England?):
It's a good, overreaching point from Aaron that we haven't really talked about in totality. We've talked about some of their free agents and how they fit, and we knew that guys like Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins were going out the door and weren't coming back given the Patriots' cap situation.
But how are the Patriots going to make up for those players?
Really the answers are both on a macro and micro level.
Let's start with what they've lost...
Jamie Collins, LB (14 AV - Approximate Value): Collins' AV was the highest among the departed players and was the highest of his career, which just goes to show that this number we're basing all this on is fairly flawed. Was Collins great last year for about the first half of the season? Yes. Does anyone remember him doing anything down the stretch in the second half? No. That's been Collins' entire career in a nutshell. Even according to PFF, Collins had four grades of elite (90 or above) in the first six games … and then had one over 70 in the final 11 games. I ended up giving Collins a C-minus grade for the season, which indicates average and declining.
Kyle Van Noy (13 AV): What I said after the season — Was arguably, on a down-to-down basis, the team’s MVP this season. Van Noy led the team in every pass-rushing stat (sacks, hits, hurries and total QB pressures) and was also the best edge player against the run, even with missing the first game for the birth of his first child. Far from the most physically gifted player, Van Noy used his smarts and leverage to win on the edge. One mild concern, and it could affect his free agency: Van Noy had 29 of his pressures in a nine-game stretch (3.2 average) after Week 1. He had 12 in the final seven games (1.7). In many ways, you could say that was emblematic of the defense as a whole and, perhaps, that unit went how Van Noy went. Grade: A-minus.
Danny Shelton (12 AV): After being a disappointment and not getting the scheme for much of 2018, Shelton found no takers on the free-agent market and had to return to the Patriots. That was a very good thing for them because Shelton built off his close of ’18 and had a very strong 2019 as the team’s only nose tackle. Finished second with 14.5 run stuffs and his 6.1 pressure percentage was solid. His durability was also huge for a team that went skinny on the defensive line. Might find more of a market this year, but the Patriots should want him back. Grade: C-plus.
Duron Harmon (5 AV): He usually plays deep safety and doesn’t miss many tackles, and he does fine at that. It’s just you’d figure they could find someone younger to do it for less money. Good leader in the locker room, and that definitely counts. Grade: C.
Elandon Roberts (4 AV): With no injuries to speak of on defense, Roberts was an extra part to the point he was used as a fullback. No shame in that. The team only played two linebackers most of the time, and Bentley got a little more run because of his upside. Grade: D-plus.
So that's what the Patriots lost. How are they replacing them?
First a couple of macro points of discussion:
- The Patriots rely on scheme more than most teams. They have a system for playing defense that basically boils down to doing your job and executing. The Patriots have rarely had a physically dominant person in the front seven and that is somewhat by design in that it allows them to stay consistent with how they play. If you don't rely on a $30 million edge rusher to get all your pressure, then you won't have to worry about missing them when they're invariably injured. The Patriots get pressure, especially the past two years, by scheming pressure — they're executing blitzes from the second level and using twists and stunts to open up space. That's team pressure and it's easier to plug and play. So in terms of this discussion, sure, I can see how the FO regression data is backed up around the league when, say, a dominating pass rusher leaves a team. But the Patriots are never going to have one, so it's tough to judge them the same way as other teams.
- The Patriots, who play more man coverage than just about anybody, feel they have the best secondary in the league. That covers up a lot of issues with any lack of pass rush. In fact, great coverage makes the coverage look better (and vice versa, if you have a great pass rush). The Patriots didn't lose anyone at cornerback (not even Jason McCourty) and have a surplus with 2019 second-round pick Joejuan Williams unlikely to see much time unless there are injuries. So they're rock-solid in the back end.
Then there are the one-for-ones...
Beau Allen for Shelton: Not many people know this because of the way the media reported the deals, but the Patriots (in a move similar to the Danny Amendola for Wes Welker swap) actually agreed to terms with Allen before Shelton agreed with Detroit. It was reported the other way around. We evaluated Allen here, but this is likely an EVEN SWAP.
Adrian Phillips for Harmon: Potential to be a HUGE UPGRADE.
Anyone for Roberts: Patriots drafted a linebacker late and signed a few more, plus have Terez Hall back from injury ... we loved Roberts' unselfishness and leadership, but this should at least be an EVEN SWAP.
Finally, there are the big replacements...
Platoon (Bentley/Uche?) for Collins: The best part about Collins, especially when he was being impactful, is that he really nailed down two positions for the Patriots. Of his 846 snaps on defense last season, 52 percent were as a standup linebacker and 39.8 percent were on the edge as a rusher. The Patriots are going to need two players to play Collins' one "position."
At linebacker, those snaps will go to Ja'Whaun Bentley, who played about a third of the snaps Collins did. Bentley has much more to prove, but he has the potential to be an UPGRADE against the run. He's just a better tackler and can read and react. Collins was just a "go" type player. But as far as getting into passing lanes and making life tough on a quarterback, Bentley will be a DOWNGRADE against the pass, at least to start. Perhaps even splitting up these duties (Kyle Dugger?) on passing downs could happen.
As an edge player, this is going to have to be rookie Josh Uche. He's the only player with the quicks and standout athletic ability to be impactful on the edge (unless someone like Shilique Calhoun or Derek Rivers pops on the left side and keeps Chase Winovich on the right, putting Uche on the bench). Until we see otherwise, pass rush is going to be a DOWNGRADE, but not a huge one.
Platoon (Simon/Winovich?) for Van Noy: I really just want to give this position full-time to Winovich (and I'm guessing the Patriots do as well) but he struggled so much against the run last year, that I'm not ready to do it. Simon (or Calhoun) is fully capable of holding the edge like Van Noy did last year, but the instincts to make plays just won't be on the same level so there will at least be a SLIGHT DOWNGRADE against the run.
The big question mark is who will pick up Van Noy's considerable slack when it comes to the pass rush? While Rivers will get one final chance to not be a bust and Brandon Copeland could be a part of the answer on either edge, Winovich has to be the guy here. The third-round pick needs to come through but really anything is going to be a BIG DOWNGRADE from Van Noy in the pass-rush department.
The question is, will any of this lead to a big regression?
I have a hard time seeing that with the secondary intact (if not better with Phillips) and the Patriots' continued ability and reliance on scheming pressure. How many players have we seen on the edges in previous years (Mark Anderson, Andre Carter, etc) who came out of nowhere and were impactful?
Collins was overrated by analytics so his impact will not be as big as projected. Van Noy will certainly be harder to replace, but the rest of the players were at least even swaps.
So, no, I don't think the Patriots' defense will regress all that much, unless Stidham becomes a bakery and leads the league in turnovers.
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1. Want to know why Nick Saban released a Black Lives Matter statement and Bill Belichick has not? Saban has to recruit and retain predominantly black players, and Belichick doesn't. If Saban didn't release a statement, other coaches could whisper in the ears of recruit about Alabama.
I'm not saying this is right or wrong, but Belichick only cares about being judged by his players, and their comments have been positive. The only thing that could put pressure on Belichick to release a statement would be a negative comment from someone like Devin McCourty, James White or Matthew Slater. I wouldn't hold my breath.
2. The NFL has no concrete plans for coming back to training camp (not having things planned out before they go on vacation drives coaches crazy), and positive tests are spiking across athletics in this country, but make no mistake, football will be played in the fall (at least to start). Nothing stops the NFL train, not when there are billions of dollars at stakes and the league office and owners are so detached from the reality for 98 percent of the country. Just watch.
3. Not a great sign for Lamar Jackson if he really believes this ... “They caught us by surprise. That’s all it was,” said the Ravens’ quarterback of January’s 28-12 playoff defeat to the Titans in an appearance on Complex’s “Load Management” podcast. “… You can’t underestimate no team, no opponent, and that’s what we did.” ... Way to be a professional. Get caught napping (for the second-straight year) in your first playoff game.
4. No, the Patriots aren't on Jamal Adams' preferred trade list with the Ravens, Cowboys, Texans, Chiefs, Eagles, 49ers, Seahawks ... but they would be if they had a ton of cap space. Money talks. Patriots are full-up at safety at the moment in any event.
5. Happy Father's Day to all the dads out there who keep the engine going. Is there a better job in the world than being a father? And a special shoutout to my own father, who has shown myself and my brothers the way by setting a great example for us. He's also been a huge supporter of BSJ, so he's got that going for him. Hope you have a great day, Papa.