While the 2019-20 regular season has not officially come to a close just yet, the time feels right to take a look back at some of our predictions for 2020 and just how close we were to hitting the mark.
The Celtics finish with the second seed in the Eastern Conference
What we said then: The Celtics begin the new year with the second-best point differential in the league and they’ve done that while overcoming all kinds of injuries to their core. While the Eastern Conference race for 2-6 seeds is as packed as ever, there is more talent and chemistry on this Celtics roster than the rest of the pack.
What we say now: Expected miss. This one is technically still to be decided but a three-game lead by the Raptors with just eight games to play indicate that this is a long shot at best, even with a favorable schedule for Boston upcoming this summer. Both Toronto and Boston dealt with constant injuries to their core but the Raptors managed to handle them better and take care of business frequently during the shortened regular season.
Two Celtics make the All-Star team:
What we said then: Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Kemba Walker will all have strong All-Star cases but only one of Tatum/Brown will get the nod from coaches next month. The return of a healthy Gordon Hayward will help deflate the scoring numbers enough of Brown or Tatum to take away a spot from one of them. Tatum has the inside track for now due to his defense and shot creation ability but another strong month from Brown from an efficiency standpoint could earn him the edge.
What we say now: Hit. This played out as we suspected. The case could be made that Jaylen Brown was having an All-Star caliber year (ESPN’s Zach Lowe voted for him over Tatum in a surprising development) but the coaches showed that Tatum was the guy to be feared and his February performance backed that up. Three All-Stars looks attainable for 2021 though.
Gordon Hayward picks up his player option for $34 million in 2020-21:
What we said then: A host of injuries during this season along with some stellar individual production may tempt the 29-year-old to opt-out. However, Hayward’s desire to win somewhere will limit his options on the open market due to a lack of cap space among contenders. The Celtics won’t make a lucrative enough offer to get him to opt-out and take a long-term deal for a sizable pay cut so Hayward opts in and elects to revisit a more player-friendly free-agent market in the summer of 2021.
What we say now: Expected hit. The pandemic hitting makes it a virtual certainty that the veteran swingman will opt in given the lack of cap space teams will have this fall due to loss of NBA revenue. The Celtics could try to push for an opt out and offer up an extension but it’s hard to see Hayward’s camp finding common ground on a long-term deal with Boston amid an uncertain financial climate for the NBA in 2021.
Enes Kanter opts out of his $5 million player option and signs elsewhere in summer of 2020:
What we said then: The plan in coming to Boston for the Turkish big man was always to have a strong season to set up another sizable payday. Kanter’s playing time may be limited wisely in Boston but the production he is putting up on the boards along with encouraging on/off splits has him playing the best basketball of his career. Look for him to cash in with a long-term pact somewhere. The Celtics will only be able to offer him mid-level money and I bet they hesitate at making a long-term commitment to him given the other alternatives at the position.
What we say now: Expected miss. Kanter has a chance to rebuild some value when the games return but after a dismal second half of the season, he is no longer a sure thing to make over $5 million in free agency. The Celtics probably wouldn’t mind him opting out with so many bigs (Robert Williams, Daniel Theis, Vincent Poirier) already under team control but look for the big to stay put on a likely contender.
The Memphis pick conveys to the Celtics in 2020:
What we said then: The Grizzlies are playing fun basketball under new head coach Taylor Jenkins and their blue-chip prospects (Jaren Jackson, Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke) all look like keepers. With the incentive to get rid of the pick obligation now before it becomes unprotected in 2021, Memphis fights hard to the finish line and finishes with the 10th worst record in the NBA. With no lottery luck, the Celtics get another late-lottery pick for their stash in 2020.
What we say now: Expected hit. Memphis turned into the surprise of the NBA this season behind their young stars and while there is a slight chance they could get knocked out of the West playoffs in the play-in game, the pick will likely still convey to Boston in that scenario. The Grizzlies would only have a 2.4 percent chance of jumping into the top-4 in the lottery from the No. 14 spot and those slim odds are only way the pick rolls over to 2021 to Boston.
Boston does not use all three of its first-round picks on draft night:
What we said then: The Celtics could have as many as 13 players under contract for next season heading into this summer and that does not include two-way players like Tacko Fall or Tremont Waters that will be looking for spots on the 15-man roster. Given the team’s focus on contending in the present, bringing in three more rookies just does not make sense for the team’s current trajectory. Whether it’s a consolidation of picks for an elite prospect or trading a current pick for a future one, look for the front office to have another busy draft night of dealing.
What we say now: Expected hit. The Celtics stood pat with their players and picks at the trade deadline, setting themselves up for a tricky roster crunch this offseason. There will be an appealing young player or two that will be let go and traded and bringing aboard three rookies onto a team that’s trying to contend is something that Danny Ainge would even admit he’s not looking to do. Look for a busy night of wheeling and dealing on draft night in October.
Brad Wanamaker re-signs with the Celtics for two years, $5 million in July:
What we said then: The second-year guard has been a reliable security blanket off the bench for Brad Stevens after a year of waiting patiently for his chance. Wanamaker will never amount to more than a bench player in the league at age 30 but he should be a useful third point guard that can be trusted for the coaching staff over the long-term in spots. The Celtics reward him with some security and a small raise for his impressive play this year.
What we say now: Expected miss. The veteran reserve point guard has fallen off a bit in the second half of the season, making him a tough candidate for a multi-year deal. The Celtics like his size and savvy but it’s hard to see them investing multiple years into the 30-year-old this offseason.
The Celtics pick up Daniel Theis’ $5 million team option in June:
What we said then: The two-year, $10-million contract the German signed last offseason looked like a bit of an overpay at the time that could ultimately become useful as matching salary in a trade. Theis has quickly turned himself into a bargain signing after a big bounce-back year from injuries. His defense in the middle has helped solidify the C’s as a top-5 defensive unit and he’s staying out of the way on offense while opening up opportunities for his teammates. Barring a big trade, he looks like the starting center in Boston for the long-term.
What we say now: Hit. Not even going to qualify this one. The big man has been one of the biggest bargains in the league for a non-rookie deal and none of the C’s other center options have been reliable. He will be back and his progression as a player will be a big factor in the team’s title chances moving forward.
The Celtics guarantee Semi Ojeleye’s $1.75-million contract for the 2020-21 season in June:
What we said then: The third-year forward signed a team-friendly four-year contract after he was taken in 2017. While his opportunities have been limited over that time, he has shown steady improvement as a 3-point shooter this season, knocking down a career-high 37.8 percent from beyond the arc through December 31st. If Ojeleye can maintain some league average 3-point shooting combined with his defensive ability against strong bigs like Giannis Antetokounmpo, it gives him an important role on this roster.
What we say now: Expected hit. The deadline on this one will be moved to October (when free agency hits) but the third-year forward has showed enough progress with his 3-point shooting to earn a cheap spot at the end of the bench. Brad Stevens still values his versatility for tough defensive matchups and that’s a cheap price to pay for someone to do that work off the bench.
The Celtics make an addition at the trade deadline or on the buyout market but it’s not a big man:
What we said then: The return of Rob Williams in January combined with some strong play by Grant Williams over the next month convinces the front office that they are best off rolling with what they have in the middle. Instead, the C’s end up searching for a stretch shooter or shooting wing to bolster the spacing with the second unit on the trade or buyout market.
What we say now: Miss. Ainge elected to sit on his glut of future draft picks and young prospects at the trade deadline. Given the fact that the Celtics should have a fully healthy roster back when the season resumes in July, this ended up being the right move.
Vincent Poirier will not be on the Celtics at the end of 2020:
What we said then: The French rookie is under contract through the end of 2021 but he becomes a victim of the numbers game at some point in 2020. With so much promising young talent under contract and a crowded depth chart at the center spot, Poirier will need to show he can be productive enough on the floor to stick around. It’s hard envisioning him getting that chance in Boston on a contending squad so the guess here is that he will be traded at some point to open up a roster spot for a more pressing need.
What we say now: Expected hit. The Celtics may have to give up an asset to get rid of his nearly $3 million salary but it’s hard to envision him making the team, especially if Kanter decides to opt in. Brad Stevens doesn’t like to play too many traditional centers as is and Poirier would be the No. 4 man on the depth chart. C’s would be better off giving this spot to a more versatile player.
Carsen Edwards spends the majority of the rest of 2019-20 season with the Maine Red Claws:
What we said then: The front office was very high on the rookie out of summer league, giving him one of the biggest deals in NBA history for a second-round pick. After throwing him to the wolves in the first two months of the regular season, the results have not been promising, particularly from an offensive standpoint. Instead of letting him get buried at the end of the bench, he spends the rest of his season honing his game with big minutes in Maine to rebuild his confidence level and while being put in a better position to contribute for 2020-21.
What we say now: Hit. Edwards did get called up with the big club as depth a little more than expected but he had some extended stints in the G-League before the G-League season was called. It will be very interesting to see whether a full offseason break helps him rebuild his confidence and allow him to make more of an impact when the Celtics return to action.
Tacko Fall signs another two-way deal with the Celtics for 2020-21:
What we said then: The Celtics like the progress the 7-foot-6 center makes with the Red Claws but don’t have the roster spot to offer him a permanent spot with the big club next summer. While Fall gets training camp invites to sign with other squads, he elects to continue with the C’s in hopes of gaining more comfort with their system with the goal of making the roster in 2021.
What we say now: Expected hit. The Celtics were very happy with Tacko’s progress in the G-League this season. Combine that with his appeal across the NBA as a fan favorite and it’s a safe bet that the team will invite him back for one more year of potential development. The question is whether Fall will get any NBA offers that might pull him away.
Jayson Tatum signs a five-year max extension in July:
What we said then: With his first All-Star appearance under his belt, the Celtics roll out a very lucrative extension offer for the 21-year-old this summer. Tatum joins Ben Simmons and Jamal Murray as recent players to sign a five-year max extension.
What we say now: Expected hit. Tatum’s superb second half of the season ensured he is worthy of this type of deal. The Celtics will try to lock him up this summer to put him at ease. The only question is whether it will be a regular max or a Rose Rule max (30 percent).
Kemba Walker outplays Kyrie Irving in a first-round playoff series:
What we said then: If the Celtics take care of business and lock down the No. 2 spot, they look to be on a collision course with the Nets who are currently 2.5 games ahead of the Magic for the No. 7 seed. The injury status of Kyrie Irving remains murky for the present but the odds are he will be healthy enough to be back for this matchup barring some sort of surgery on his shoulder. Walker will be able to take his game to a new level with a superb supporting cast and send Irving and the Nets packing in what would be must-see TV for the NBA’s first round.
What we say now: Hit. It won’t be head-to-head unfortunately but with Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com reporting that Irving is still out for the postseason after undergoing shoulder surgery, it’s a safe bet now that Walker outplays the former C’s point guard.
Brad Stevens finishes in the top-3 in Coach of the Year voting:
What we said then: After the worst coaching job of his Celtics career in 2018-19, Stevens has bounced back tremendously in 2019-20, maximizing his new personnel while also developing youth on the path to an impressive record. After the Celtics finish with the third-best record in the NBA, Stevens’ name gets rightfully placed in the mix for the Coach of the Year conversation by helping turn Boston back into a contender ahead of schedule.
What we say now: Expected miss. This was a fine coaching job by Stevens in the midst of so much overhaul to his core but the C’s did not outperform preseason expectations by a significant amount thanks to constant injuries. With so many other elite/surprise playoff teams around the league, Stevens will have to wait his turn at getting this honor and probably won’t even finish in the top 3.