Why the NBA restart plan format is a win for the Celtics

The NBA finally has settled on an NBA restart plan per multiple reports. After weeks of rumors, a 22-team format is expected to be proposed and passed by the Board of Governors on Thursday afternoon that calls for eight regular season games, a potential play-in tournament for the No. 8 seed leading to the usual NBA postseason.

Breaking down the regular season format

The NBA will be inviting the 22 best teams to Orlando for a chance to make the postseason. That will include nine Eastern Conference teams and 13 Western Conference teams since the bottom tier of the East has horrendous records this season. The ninth-seeded Wizards in the East are the worst team in the field with a 24-40 record. The Suns (26-39) are the worst team in the West invited.

—Eight regular season games will be played by all 22 teams and added to the team’s current regular season record.

—At the end of the regular season, there will be a potential play-in game for the No. 8 seed in both conferences if the No. 9 seed is within four games of the No. 8 seed in the standings after a (roughly) 72 game regular season (total game totals will vary by team).

—If the No. 8 seed has more than a four-game lead in either conference, it will not have to play their way into the postseason and no tournament will be held for that conference. If not, a play-in tournament will be held between the No. 8 and No. 9 seed.

—For any play-in tournament, there will be a baked-in advantage for the No. 8 seed. It will only have to win one game against the No. 9 seed in the tournament to advance to the regular postseason. On the flip side, the No. 9 seed will have to beat the No. 8 seed twice in a row to advance to take on the No. 1 seed in the first round.

—All seeds below No. 9 in each conference will be eliminated per usual at the end of the regular season and the usual playoff matchups will take place with a seven-game series (1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, etc.) once any play-in tournament is completed.

Why this format is good news for the Celtics in the present

This is a win on a couple of fronts for Boston. For the current postseason, it gives the Celtics a chance to avoid the Sixers in the first round (something they were penciled in for currently in a 3 vs. 6 matchup) since Philadelphia could easily move up to the 4/5 matchup after playing eight regular season games (they are currently tied with the Pacers for the No. 5 seed). Catching the Raptors for the No. 2 seed will be a challenge (3 games back with eight to play) for Boston but the C’s should have the ability maneuver a bit in the standings if they want and hope they pull a more favorable draw in the 3 vs. 6 matchup (Pacers, Heat) as opposed to a healthy Sixers squad. There is also a chance Boston could fall to the 4/5 matchup with a poor showing in the eight-game regular-season but a 2.5 game cushion over Miami should provide some breathing room there.

Why this format is good news for the Celtics’ draft stash

The Memphis Grizzlies are currently the frontrunner to make the West playoffs as the No. 8 seed (3.5 game lead with eight games to play) but there is a strong likelihood now that they will need to win some kind of play-in tournament to make the postseason. Currently, there are four West teams (Portland, New Orleans, Sacramento, San Antonio) that are within four games of the Grizzlies in the standings so barring a remarkable hot run by Memphis to close the final eight games of the regular season, one of those four squads should finish within four games of the Grizzlies in the standings, which will trigger the play-in tournament.

That opens the door for the Grizzlies to be knocked out by a healthy Blazers squad (big men Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins are expected to return) or a Pelicans team that was coming together at the end of the regular season in the play-in matchup if either of those squads lands the No. 9 seed.

Currently, Memphis is projected to send Boston the No. 17 pick based on their spot in the standings. However, that could fall as low as No. 14 if Memphis loses their play-in tournament matchup or falls below the No. 10 seed altogether. Moving up a couple of pick slots in the middle of the first round may not seem like a big deal for Boston in the big picture but given that Danny Ainge will also have two other first-round picks to work with (his own, Milwaukee), moving up in the draft could get easier with a late lottery selection.

A return to play directly to the postseason after the NBA season was suspended would have precluded any chance of an improved outlook for Boston with the Grizzlies pick. This new format isn’t guaranteed to help on that front, but the door is now open for Memphis to fall in the standings against what will be a very motivated and healthy group of West fringe playoff teams fighting for a shot at the postseason.

Leftover questions

More details from this proposal will likely come to the surface in the coming days but a few big questions remain:

—How will regular season schedules be determined for the 22 teams?
—How will tiebreakers be handled for playoff seeding?
—What happens when teams play an uneven number of games (ex: Celtics played 71 regular season games but Sixers played 73 regular season games) and those teams are within a game in the standings?

There will likely be some miffed teams across the league based on the answers to those questions but the current NBA format here should provide for some good basketball once the season resumes on July 31st. Most teams in both conferences will have something to play for (seeding, play-in tournament) during all eight regular season games. A play-in tournament will allow for a fun wrinkle as well while maintaining the relevance of the remainder of the regular season from before the suspension. It was never going to be perfect but the NBA is rolling with a good option here.