A reckoning is coming to the NFL.
The league, thanks to the luck of having the calendar on its side, has largely sidestepped many of the issues that have arisen from the global pandemic. But that's going to change at some point. Even if the season starts and the NFL plays a full, uninterrupted schedule — possible but not definite — the league's revenue is going to take a huge hit. And that kicks in a provision in the CBA that will affect the salary cap:
(xii) Cancelled Games. If one or more weeks of any NFL season are cancelled or AR (all revenue) for any League Year substantially decreases, in either case due to a terrorist or military action, natural disaster, or similar event, the parties shall engage in good faith negotiations to adjust the provisions of this Agreement with respect to the projection of AR and the Salary Cap for the following League Year so that AR for the following League Year is projected in a fair manner consistent with the changed revenue projection caused by such action.
The players' union would have to agree to give back some money this year, thus taking on some pain in the short term to offset more in the long term. With roster bonuses, workout bonuses, option bonuses and signing bonuses already paid in the spring, the trim would likely come from the players' base salaries, which are paid in weekly installments during the season. It's unclear at this point, with negotiations not even underway, how big of a cut the league would request and what kind of structure the players would accept for the giveback.
Surely, the players would be reluctant to agree to such cuts. But teams would argue the alternative isn't ideal, either. In anticipation of revenue losses, teams could opt to part with veterans with big, non-guaranteed base salaries in 2020. Players such as the Browns' Olivier Vernon ($15.25 million), whose future in Cleveland has already been questioned by some, could find themselves in jeopardy of getting released.
Plus, if the players agree to a trim now, it would save some jobs in 2021. The smaller the drop in next year's salary cap, the fewer number of veterans would be released then.
