McAdam: On the future of J.D. Martinez, the DH and contractual opt-outs

Major League Baseball has proposed a universal DH for the 2020 season, which is a nod both to the unique schedule, which will likely feature a greater percentage of interleague matchups due to temporary realignment, and the potential risks to pitchers being asked to run the bases after a far shorter spring training.

The notion of having a DH for both leagues has seen growing support in recent years. The National League is now the last, lonely outpost in which pitchers hit for themselves, and save for a few tradition-bound NL owners, there appears to be little remaining institutional support for having pitchers hit.

Whatever fan opposition once existed has ebbed in the nearly 40 years since the once-radical rule change was implemented. Fans want more offense, and at a time when the turgid pace and lack of action are seen as anathema, there's nothing so sleep-inducing as a pitcher futilely flailing at the plate.

All along, it has been widely assumed that the DH would be a big bargaining chip when the next collective bargaining agreement is negotiated next year (the current CBA expires in December of 2021). But like a thousand other things, the coronavirus pandemic may have changed that thinking as well as the timetable.

If MLB agrees to shelve the DH/no DH set up for 2020, couldn't such a change also be extended into 2021, then more permanently eradicated via the new CBA later in the year? Baseball, it would seem, has far bigger issues facing it than whether to continue with this strange bifurcation.

It's been suggested that introducing the DH to both leagues would represent a huge boon to J.D. Martinez, since it would, in effect, double the number of potential employers for him this winter. National League teams which previously might have avoided Martinez would now flock to him to fill the new position made available to them. After all, who wouldn't like to have a player who's averaged an OPS of 1.007 over the last three seasons, especially with a safe place to now stash him?

(Martinez's five-year, $110-million includes buyout provisions followed the 2019, 2020 and 2021 seasons).

Martinez and his agent Scott Boras explored the market last winter, only to determine that he would not opt-out of his deal with the Red Sox. The stated reason was that Martinez wanted to stay with the Red Sox since they afforded him the best opportunity to compete each year. The actual reason was that they could not find anyone willing to top the $62.5 million remaining.

Let's fast forward to next winter: if Martinez couldn't find any takers willing to pay him an AAV of $21 million or greater for three years last year, how in the world will he find a team ready to pay $20 million or greater for at least two seasons now? (Martinez's deal dips slightly after 2020, calling for base salaries of $19.375 million in both 2021 and 2022).

Whether games are played or not in 2020, the free agent market will be decimated for this winter and several to come. MLB projects losses of $4 billion for 2020, and since it's impossible to imagine baseball fans packing themselves into ballparks again until after a vaccine is available, it's a given attendance in 2021 will also fall off sharply when compared to recent seasons.

Even prime-of-their-career free agents like Mookie Betts will take a hit when it comes to realizing their value on the open market. And if Betts — a five-tool, 28-year-old with no injury history -- will have to adjust his expectations, what does that mean for someone like Martinez, who turns 33 in August, is limited defensively and has a history of both foot and back injuries?

In essence, Martinez is the victim of some good news/bad news market conditions: Yes, there will suddenly be twice as many possible bidders. But -- zing! -- those bidders will have far less money to spend on payroll. Talk about a Catch-22.

Martinez isn't alone in being impacted by the financial changes about to wash over the game. Since the game's economic health is likely to be lessened for years to come, it's difficult to imagine almost any player choosing to opt-out from a current deal.

Since the old guidelines about expected revenues no longer apply, how is it that someone who agreed to a contract before COVID-19 struck could better that offer in the new post-pandemic world? It's unimaginable.

That, too, represents a significant sea change in the game's economics.  Not long ago, it was widely assumed that a star player would utilize the opt-out nearly every time -- if not to sign for more elsewhere, then at least to create leverage and earn a lucrative extension from his current teams. Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia, and Clayton Kershaw each did the latter.

More recently, with the free agent market somewhat chilled, David Price, Jason Heyward and Elvis Andrus all stayed put, having determined that a combination of underperformance and slowed spending meant they were unlikely to better their original deals.

Now, it would seem, that strategy will become commonplace. For the near future, players will be stay put, content with their existing contracts in an uncertain time.