Ever since Tom Brady fled for Tampa Bay, there have been countless media reports about how much the Patriots like Jarrett Stidham and their chances with him as their quarterback.
Stidham could end up being Tom Brady Jr. when it comes to second-season heroics, but that doesn't change the fact that the media speculation about how the team currently feels about him has been largely wrong to this point.
Just because you end at a certain place doesn't mean the initial reports were right. Stidham could end up the starter and play great, but the team could have been lukewarm about his prospects this entire offseason.
There were hardly any reports before Brady became a free agent about Stidham's possibility of success. But after Brady left and the Patriots, by virtue of their cap situation, were only left with Stidham and Brian Hoyer at quarterback, suddenly Stidham was the anointed one.
I wonder what changed. Did Stidham suddenly get better since the season was over? Did he impress the coaches via Zoom? Of course not. Brady left, Stidham was the only QB left, so why not have some optimism?
Anything beyond that, any reports describing Stidham as the plan, or about how the Patriots know he has the making of the next franchise quarterback are just ... well, they're hogwash.
How do I know? Well, for starters, multiple team sources told me after the season — well before Brady's future was known or declared — that the team was pleased where Stidham was (similar to the spot to where Jimmy Garoppolo was after his first season), thought he had a chance to be a good player, but there much unknown about him. All things being equal, he likely needed at least another year of seasoning before really tackling the position.
But there's also this: the Patriots don't anoint anyone anything before they earn it on the field. That's just a fact. Here's another fact: the Patriots had no idea what they had in Brady before he had to go in against the Jets after Drew Bledsoe was injured, and the team largely played around Brady's limitations on the way to the Super Bowl and beyond.
Let me state that a little clearer, for those that think the Patriots did X, Y and Z because of Stidham: the man who would go on to become the greatest QB in NFL history didn't get the benefit of the doubt from Bill Belichick or the other coaches going into his second season. In fact, Brady barely beat out Damon Huard to be the backup for that season. The oft-told tale that Belichick knew Brady was going to be great, was better than Bledsoe and just was waiting for his chance to bench Bledsoe, is just a fallacy.
How do I know that? Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis told me back in 2016 for a Sports Illustrated story:
...let’s set the story straight on a bit of mythology surrounding the quarterback’s rise: Pats coach Bill Belichick was not looking for a reason to bench starter Drew Bledsoe back in 2001 when Jets linebacker Mo Lewis hit the QB so hard that he put Bledsoe in the hospital. Actually, another New England passer, Damon Huard, very well could have been the man to fill Bledsoe's shoes—the competition was that close.
“Oh no, no, no, no,” Weis says of that popular tale, the one that has Brady, a Belichick draft pick, waiting in the wings behind owner Robert Kraft’s preferred leader, Bledsoe. “[Brady] wasn’t better than Bledsoe. In fact he wasn’t much better than [Huard]. Bledsoe was clearly the starter. The No. 2 spot, that’s where the competition was. We really could have flipped a coin to pick the second guy. We ended up picking Tommy—but it was really close.”
- The Patriots believed Brady would return when no wide market developed for his serves and Brady was left with only teams like the Buccaneers and Chargers as suitors (they were almost right);
- When Brady left out of spite (and Belichick not changing his tune one bit to allow even the slightest partnership), Belichick thought it was a better investment to use Brady's cap money to place the franchise tag on Joe Thuney with a first- or second-round pick as possible trade compensation, instead of a retread quarterback;
- Beyond Joe Burrow, the Patriots didn't think any quarterback prospect other than Justin Herbert had the potential to start as a rookie, and the capital needed to take him (or even Tua Tagovailoa) didn't make any sense where the team is and the way the team is set up for 2021);
- The pandemic has made the additions of outside veteran quarterbacks almost impossible due to the unknown with season preparation;
- The Patriots had little cap space and they'd prefer not to kick the cap can down the road when they can reset with $90 million in space in 2021.
- Have no idea how the Patriots are six-point favorites in any game with StOyer as the starting quarterback, especially in the opener against the Dolphins and Week 3 against the Raiders. Way too early for that stuff. Take the visitors.
- Last season with Brady, after the first Jets game got them to 3-0, the Patriots won by seven or fewer points in four games, and lost five (including the playoffs). So that means the Patriots didn't cover seven points in nine of the final 14 games. That was with Brady.
- Seahawks are only favored over the Patriots by one point on a neutral field (three automatic points for being home)?
- Chiefs are only 3.5 points better than the Patriots? The 49ers are considered five points better, the Ravens 5.5.
- Vegas sees the Patriots and Bills as pretty much even.
- Vegas sees the Patriots as being 2.5 points better than the Texans.
- Jets are considered the worst team in the division.
