Bedard: Expecting a big impact out of this Patriots draft? Their history says otherwise

One thing I neglected to explain in my piece titled, "Could Bill Belichick and the Patriots largely punt on this year’s draft?" was that one of the stipulations — to go along with the Patriots not just tanking this season, and that there will be very little if any offseason and possibly training camp to train new players — which we should all be able to agree on is that rookies are rarely drafted by the Patriots with Day 1 starting spots in mind. Even in the first two rounds.

Talk to anyone around the league, especially those that know him best, and they'll tell you Bill Belichick is two to three years ahead of everyone else. That means, to me, that he's been way ahead in diagnosing the effect this pandemic will have on the NFL and, especially, the Patriots. Basically, if you think Belichick is listening to the league office and Jeff Pash on any of this (ok, he doesn't listen to them anyway) then I have some swampland to sell you.

Belichick has been way ahead of this and knows there is little chance there is any NFL offseason, and training camp is likely to be trimmed. It's part of the reason (not all of it) why I believe the Patriots didn't make a move for a veteran quarterback (although they were making calls on players like Kyle Allen). Say you have camp two weeks before the start of training camp. You're going to have time to coach up a veteran QB? Why pay them $10-15 million then? Belichick is more likely to see how this plays out first.

This relates to the rookies. I never said the Patriots should punt on the entire draft. What I said was "it would make much more sense for the Patriots to grab a few targeted players this year — yes, even a big jump up for a quarterback — and then flip picks and/or players for better picks in the 2021 draft." Top positions on my list that need immediate attention: tight end, linebacker, receiver and center. Those would be my few, targeted players. And since you can usually flip a pick in this year's draft for one round higher next year, that's what I would have in mind.

Bringing in a robust rookie class in 2021 makes a lot more sense. The Patriots, with ample cap space, will be able to keep the core pieces, re-sign anyone they want in 2021, and add any plug-and-play veterans while they rebuild the bottom-third of the roster with much-needed youth.

But a key part of all this is how the Patriots have traditionally dealt with their rookies. Now, a post-Tom Brady world could change a lot of things — maybe Belichick is OK now playing a handful of rookies on opening day — but I doubt it.

Here's the history players drafted by the Patriots in the first two rounds going back to 2010. Even guys like Joe Thuney, Nate Solder, Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower and Devin McCourty had at least some of their road paved into the lineup by injuries (and they were darn good as well).

That's why, when people talk about getting a big impact from the draft for this year's veteran-laden and expensive roster, I kind of shake my head and wonder what team they've been watching the last 20 years.

By the way, here's the average age of the Top-51 rosters around the league, thanks to Jason Fitzgerald at overthecap.com:

Patriots: 28.0
Saints: 27.53
Bills: 27.45
49ers: 27.27
Titan: 27.14
NFL average: 26.69.

Remember that when you read through the history of top draft picks

2019

WR N'Keal Harry (1st round): Patriots never count on their receivers as rookies and Harry was no exception, especially with Demaryius Thomas signed in the offseason and the reinstatement of Josh Gordon. Injuries set him back further, he was on PUP to start the season. Became a starter: Week 11 (Gordon release cleared way).

CB Joejuan Williams (2nd): Drafted into a loaded and experienced secondary. Didn't make a start in 2019 and only appeared in nine games. Became a starter: Never to this point.

2018

LT Isaiah Wynn (1st): Even before his rookie season was wiped out by injury, Wynn lost the camp battle to Trent Brown fairly quickly and was destined to be the swing tackle on the gameday roster. Became a starter: Week 1, second season.

RB Sony Michel (1st): After a fairly nondescript camp that featured injuries, Michel looked like he was going to back up free agent Jeremy Hill to start the season — then Hill went down for the year and never returned. Became a starter: Week 3 (injury).

CB Duke Dawson (2nd): Missed his entire rookie season and was traded to Denver before his second season. Became a starter: Never.

2017

No first- or second-round picks.

2016

CB Cyrus Jones (2nd): Started one game in Week 9, was injured in '17, and was off the roster after two games in '18. Became a starter: Never.

Bonus: Joe Thuney (3rd): Became an opening day starter as Sebastian Vollmer and Tre Jackson were both on PUP, and Jonathan Cooper never grabbed a role after the trade from the Cardinals. Became a starter: Week 1.

2015

DT Malcom Brown (1st): Patriots were really weak at the position with Vince Wilfork in Houston (declined team option in March) and Chris Jones (concussions) on PUP. Alan Branch was signed late, and eventually became an effective player. Became a starter: Week 6 Brown supplanted Sealver Siliga.

S Jordan Richards (2nd): Never more than a special teams player. Became a starter: Never on defense.

2014

DT Dominique Easley (1st): Was hurt coming out of college and never stayed healthy his first two seasons before landing with Rams. Became a starter: Never.

QB Jimmy Garoppolo (2nd): Was drafted to start the clock on Tom Brady's career. Became a starter: Third season he proved he was capable.

2013

LB Jamie Collins (2nd): Came in as a little bit of an athletic project and that was fine considering the Patriots had Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower and Brandon Spikes as starters. But once Mayo was lost for the season with a torn pectoral muscle, Collins became a starter for the rest of the season. Became a starter: Week 7.

WR Aaron Dobson (2nd): Patriots were already thin at receiver with Danny Amendola replacing Wes Welker, and there weren't many expectations for Julian Edelman, who had 32 catches in the previous three seasons. Even with Amendola dealing with a groin injury, Dobson didn't become a regular until later in the season. Became a starter: Week 5, but never again started regularly and was gone from the NFL after three seasons.

2012

DE Chandler Jones (1st): Belichick traded up for the first time in forever for Jones, but he was initially viewed as just a situational pass rusher to start. Then injuries to Jermaine Cunningham and free-agent Trevor Scott opened the door. Became a starter: Week 1.

LB Dont'a Hightower (1st): Hightower showed up a bit out of shape and seemed to be destined for a backup role behind Dane Fletcher and free-agent Bobby Carpenter when Fletcher got hurt and Hightower won the job. Became a starter: Week 1.

S Tavon Wilson (2nd): Reach pick by Belichick didn't become a starter until he signed with the Lions. Became a starter: 2016 in Detroit.

2011

LT Nate Solder (1st): Was slated to be the backup swing tackle to Matt Light and Sebastian Vollmer but then Vollmer had injury issues and only started six games, including the Super Bowl. Became a starter: Second season, after Light's retirement.

2010

CB Devin McCourty (1st): Entered a competition with Darius Butler and Kyle Arrington for the starting spot opposite Leigh Bodden, who was re-signed. But Bodden landed on injured reserve and McCourty went on to a Pro Bowl rookie season with Arrington on the other side. Became a starter: Week 1.

TE Rob Gronkowski (2nd): Basically split the starting role with Alge Crumpler for much of his rookie season, with Aaron Hernandez having more of an immediate role in the passing offense. Didn't have more than one catch per game consistently until Nov. 7. Became a starter: Week 8 was really when he took on a major role.

DE Jermaine Cunningham (2nd): Was supposed to be a backup to Tully Banta-Cain, but the veteran got benched to give Cunningham his break. Started 11 games as a rookie, then started three more the rest of his career. Became a starter: Week 3.

LB Brandon Spikes (2nd): Gary Guyton and Tyrone McKenzie started ahead of Spikes on the depth chart, but they quickly revealed themselves as limited NFL players. Became a starter: Week 1.